跨断层定点形变观测资料“速率累加分析”及其异常初步提取方法
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摘要
应用新疆阿克苏、独山子跨断层定点形变站的水准观测资料,进行了"形变速率累加"分析,甄别前兆异常并提取异常指标。结果表明,此方法更易于异常的鉴别和提取,其异常特征为:①速率累加曲线有明确的拐点;②异常时段速率累加曲线斜率加大,表现为快速上升或阶跃;③异常幅度均大于0.20 mm,异常速率均大于0.0020 mm/d;④异常时间以中期为主,多为台站250 km范围内发生的地震。根据计算结果并研究地震活动的对应关系,可为台站周边地区的地震预报提供时间参考指标。
Using deformation rate cumulation method to analyze the leveling datum of across-fault fixed deformation recorded in Akesu and Dushanzi stations,and identifying the precursor anomalies and picking up the anomalous index.The result shows that the method is more liable to identify and pick up anomalies.The anomalous characteristics are: ① There is the obvious inflexion for rate cumulative curves;② The slope coefficient of the rate cumulative curves in anomalous phase increases with a rapid rise or step;③ The anomalous ranges are more than 0.20 mm, and the anomalous rates are more than 0.002 0 mm/d;④ The anomalous time are mainly mid-term,most of earthquakes occurred in the radius of 250 km for the station.According to the computing results and seismic activity,the time index of earthquake prediction near the station region can be given.
Using deformation rate cumulation method to analyze the leveling datum of across-fault fixed deformation recorded in Akesu and Dushanzi stations,and identifying the precursor anomalies and picking up the anomalous index.The result shows that the method is more liable to identify and pick up anomalies.The anomalous characteristics are: ① There is the obvious inflexion for rate cumulative curves;② The slope coefficient of the rate cumulative curves in anomalous phase increases with a rapid rise or step;③ The anomalous ranges are more than 0.20 mm, and the anomalous rates are more than 0.002 0 mm/d;④ The anomalous time are mainly mid-term,most of earthquakes occurred in the radius of 250 km for the station.According to the computing results and seismic activity,the time index of earthquake prediction near the station region can be given.
引文
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[10]焦青,周俊萍.跨断层垂直位移速率的动态演化特征与强震的关系[J].地震,1998,18(3):265-273.
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①中国地震局地壳应力研究所.MD4412型垂直变形测量仪(DFZ)、MD4211型水平变形测量仪(DSD)研制报告和使用手册,1996.
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