中国大陆西部前兆异常涨落与强震短期预测研究
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摘要
统计了1998年以来西部六省区(云南、四川、青海、甘肃、宁夏、新疆)前兆异常月频次,探讨了异常数量的涨落与强震活动的关系。结果表明,大部分强震前强震所在省份及邻区的前兆异常数量有明显的持续增长现象,临震时一般表现为异常回落至低值。从时间上看,异常增长的起始时间一般为震前3～4个月到震前7～8个月,少量为震前14～18个月;异常数量到达峰值的时间为震前1个月至震前10个月。研究认为,异常月频次峰值时间可以作为强震预测的中短期至短期指标。研究还表明,2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震前,除青海、甘肃地区外,云南、四川的前兆异常也突出,似乎显示了8.1级地震的孕育范围已影响到川滇地区。
The relationship between fluctuation of anomalies in the western China and short-term prediction of strong earthquakes was studied on the basis of statistical result of monthly anomaly frequency in Yunnan, Sichuan, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, and Xinjiang regions. The result shows that the number of the anomalies increases obviously and turns down before most of the strong earthquakes. The beginning time of the increase process is generally about three to eight months before the strong earthquake occurrence, sometimes fourteen to eighteen months. The peak of the increase process is about one to ten months before the strong earthquakes. The study shows that when the monthly frequency of anomalies reaches the peak value, the seismogenic process of strong earthquakes enters the medium-to short-term stage. The result also shows that the anomalies increase not only in Qinghai and Gansu regions but also in Yunnan and Sichuan regions before the West Kunlunshankou M8.1 earthquake, which might indicate that the seismogenic process of this giant earthquake has affected far away to Sichuan and Yunnan regions
The relationship between fluctuation of anomalies in the western China and short-term prediction of strong earthquakes was studied on the basis of statistical result of monthly anomaly frequency in Yunnan, Sichuan, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, and Xinjiang regions. The result shows that the number of the anomalies increases obviously and turns down before most of the strong earthquakes. The beginning time of the increase process is generally about three to eight months before the strong earthquake occurrence, sometimes fourteen to eighteen months. The peak of the increase process is about one to ten months before the strong earthquakes. The study shows that when the monthly frequency of anomalies reaches the peak value, the seismogenic process of strong earthquakes enters the medium-to short-term stage. The result also shows that the anomalies increase not only in Qinghai and Gansu regions but also in Yunnan and Sichuan regions before the West Kunlunshankou M8.1 earthquake, which might indicate that the seismogenic process of this giant earthquake has affected far away to Sichuan and Yunnan regions
引文
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[2] 梅世蓉.从唐山地震的前兆特征看强震的孕育过程及综合预报强震的初步探讨[A].宋志平、薛艳.梅世蓉地震科学研究论文选集[C].北京:地震出版社,1993.196 201.
[3] 罗兰格,张国民,李广鑫,等.地震综合预报方法研究[A].国家地震局科技监测司.中国地震预报方法研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1991.28 34.
[4] 张国民,罗兰格.地震综合分析预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1998.
[5] MaLi,GaoXu.TheStateofIntensiveMonitoringandPredictionattheMetropolitanAreabeforeAsianGamein1990.From:TheSelectedPapersofEarthquakePredictioninChina,Dedicatedtothe30thInternationalGeologicalCongress,editor in chief:GeZhizhou,StateSeismologicalBureau[M].Beijing:SeismologicalPress.1996.255 259.
[6] 李献智,侯建盛.应用综合前兆异常月频度判定地震进入中短期的研究[J].地震,1998,18(4):337 347.
[7] 李献智,李纲.综合前兆异常月频次在地震预报中的应用及其意义[J].地震,1999,19(4):323330.
[8] 李献智.对地震前兆异常的一些再思考[J].地震,1998,18(2):163 170.
[9] 国家地震局地质研究所岩石力学实验室,中国科学院盐湖研究所岩石力学实验室.结构岩体变形、破坏与地震前兆的实验研究[J].地震地质,1980,2(1):11 19.
[10] 赵豫生,陈,王仁.岩石裂纹附近的变形局部化与破坏 激光全息干涉法的应用[J].地球物理学报,1988,31(3):294 305.
[11] 石耀霖,张永仙,张国民.孕震过程岩石膨胀及断层蠕动的数值模拟研究[J].地震学报,1994,16(增刊):10 17.
[12] 张国民,张永仙,石耀霖.地震前兆复杂性的数值模拟研究[J].地震,1994,14(1):2 11.
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