城市地震风险整体评价方法及其应用
|
摘要
城市已经成为我国防震减灾的重中之重,国家越来越重视城市地震风险管理,将地震灾害管理的重点集中在城市地震风险的评估和管理工作上。通过计算预期的物理破坏、经济损失和人员伤亡,并考虑社会的脆弱性和恢复的能力等其他因素的影响,将各种因素的值进行转化,形成可以进行相加的指数,并乘以相应的权重,最终得到城市的地震风险。从地震风险管理的角度出发,引入城市地震整体风险评价法对淮南市的地震风险进行评估,并给出了提高地震防灾减灾能力的几条建议,为城市地震防灾减灾提供参考。
With the fast tendency of the urbanization of our country, it has become a top concern of our seismic hazards.Thus,this paper would like to focus its attention on the study of how to more effectively assess and mitigate such urban earthquake disasters and enhance its assessment and control The proposed method of urban seismic risk evaluation in this paper is by nature a comprehensive,integrated multi -facets approach,aiming to bring about an approach to guide a decision -making strategy.While taking into full account the risk evaluation that can not only predict the expected physical damage,the size and type of human casualties or economic loss,but also the conditions related to the social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favor the indirect effects in case a strong quake hits the urban centre.As the first step of the evaluation of such potential material damage,our proposed method is to analyze the convolution of the physical vulnerability of the buildings and infrastructures of the city. Subsequently,analysis is turned to evaluate the social context conditions that are likely to aggravate the physical installations.In so doing, we can get a physical risk index for each unit of analysis on the existing loss scenario whereas the total risk index can be obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socioeconomic conditions of each unit of analysis.Thus,the proposed approach will be able to help to improve the entire risk evaluation based on the urban risk indicators. With all the indicators in mind,the decision-making departments can choose the corresponding countermeasures to control the above said indicators and finally relieve the seismic disasters of the city.Taking Huainan city as a case study,we have applied the proposed method based on the assessment outcomes,and offered a few suggestions on how to improve the evaluation and mitigate the likely damage and loss of the city.
With the fast tendency of the urbanization of our country, it has become a top concern of our seismic hazards.Thus,this paper would like to focus its attention on the study of how to more effectively assess and mitigate such urban earthquake disasters and enhance its assessment and control The proposed method of urban seismic risk evaluation in this paper is by nature a comprehensive,integrated multi -facets approach,aiming to bring about an approach to guide a decision -making strategy.While taking into full account the risk evaluation that can not only predict the expected physical damage,the size and type of human casualties or economic loss,but also the conditions related to the social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favor the indirect effects in case a strong quake hits the urban centre.As the first step of the evaluation of such potential material damage,our proposed method is to analyze the convolution of the physical vulnerability of the buildings and infrastructures of the city. Subsequently,analysis is turned to evaluate the social context conditions that are likely to aggravate the physical installations.In so doing, we can get a physical risk index for each unit of analysis on the existing loss scenario whereas the total risk index can be obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socioeconomic conditions of each unit of analysis.Thus,the proposed approach will be able to help to improve the entire risk evaluation based on the urban risk indicators. With all the indicators in mind,the decision-making departments can choose the corresponding countermeasures to control the above said indicators and finally relieve the seismic disasters of the city.Taking Huainan city as a case study,we have applied the proposed method based on the assessment outcomes,and offered a few suggestions on how to improve the evaluation and mitigate the likely damage and loss of the city.
引文
[ 1] ERDIK M,AYDINO N.Earthquake vulnerability of building in Turkey [ C ]//OKADA N.Proc 3rd International Symposium on Integrated Disaster Risk Management ( IDRM-2003 ).Brussels : Risk and Governance,Program of World Congress on Risk,2003．
[2] YE Y,OKADA N.Regional vulnerability based on Chinese and Japanese earthquake disaster case studies[ C]//OKADA N.Proc 3rd International Symposium on Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRM-2003) .Brussels: Risk and Governance,Program of World Congress on Risk,2003．
[3] COBURN A,SPENC R.Earthquake protection [M].United Kingdom: John Wiley ＆ Sons Ltd,1992．
[4] BLAILIE P,CANNON T.Vulnerability,the social environment of the disasters[J].Natural Hazards,1996 (28) : 98 102．
[ 5] CARRENO M L,CARDONA O D,BARBAT A H.Urban seismic risk evaluation : a holistic approach [J].Natural Hazards,2007 (40) : 137-172．
[6] YIN Zhiqian (尹之潜).Basic framework of urban earthquake risk analysis[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration (地震工程与工程振动),1999,19(1) : 70-75．
[7] YANG Ting (杨挺).Urban local earthquake disaster risk index and its application to shanghai municipality [J].Recent Developmentsin World Seismology (国际地震动态),2002 (2) : 4-7．
[8] Wikimedia Foundation,Inc.Sigmoidfunction [EB/OL].[2009-7-08] .http: //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid-function.
[9] Huainan Statistical Bureau (淮南市统计局).Huainan statistical annual 2008 (淮南市统计年鉴2008) [ M].Huainan: Huainan statistical bureau,2009．
[10] BARBATA A H,CARREMO M L,et al.Seismic vulnerability and risk evaluation methods for urban areas.A review with application to a pilot area [ J ].Structure and Infrastructure Engineering,2009 (14) : 1-22．
[2] YE Y,OKADA N.Regional vulnerability based on Chinese and Japanese earthquake disaster case studies[ C]//OKADA N.Proc 3rd International Symposium on Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRM-2003) .Brussels: Risk and Governance,Program of World Congress on Risk,2003．
[3] COBURN A,SPENC R.Earthquake protection [M].United Kingdom: John Wiley ＆ Sons Ltd,1992．
[4] BLAILIE P,CANNON T.Vulnerability,the social environment of the disasters[J].Natural Hazards,1996 (28) : 98 102．
[ 5] CARRENO M L,CARDONA O D,BARBAT A H.Urban seismic risk evaluation : a holistic approach [J].Natural Hazards,2007 (40) : 137-172．
[6] YIN Zhiqian (尹之潜).Basic framework of urban earthquake risk analysis[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration (地震工程与工程振动),1999,19(1) : 70-75．
[7] YANG Ting (杨挺).Urban local earthquake disaster risk index and its application to shanghai municipality [J].Recent Developmentsin World Seismology (国际地震动态),2002 (2) : 4-7．
[8] Wikimedia Foundation,Inc.Sigmoidfunction [EB/OL].[2009-7-08] .http: //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid-function.
[9] Huainan Statistical Bureau (淮南市统计局).Huainan statistical annual 2008 (淮南市统计年鉴2008) [ M].Huainan: Huainan statistical bureau,2009．
[10] BARBATA A H,CARREMO M L,et al.Seismic vulnerability and risk evaluation methods for urban areas.A review with application to a pilot area [ J ].Structure and Infrastructure Engineering,2009 (14) : 1-22．
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心