从技术底层分析地震应急综合评估系统的运行特点——以天津市为例
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摘要
利用Matlab及Arcgis软件,将天津市地震应急综合评估系统自2007年底以来人工触发的地震灾害评估结果进行了统计分析。从技术底层梳理了整套评估系统涉及的有关数据库、企业服务总线、灾害评估系统、辅助决策系统、Web服务等各功能模块所处的位置及作用,并使用流程图展示了综合评估系统涉及的技术细节。通过统计分析,得出近两年来触发的地震震级大小、震中、死亡人数、计算耗时等分布特征以及震害损失的分布特点,指出以后工作中需要增添哪些分布特点的人工触发地震事件。进一步分析震害结果得出建议:造价比矩阵值需适当上调,人员伤亡比系数下调,经济损失应增加按建筑用途和因经济活动中断而出现链式损失效应的灾损因素。
Utilizing the Matlab and Arcgis softwares,the earthquake disaster estimation results,trigged artificially,from the Tianjin earthquake emergency comprehensive estimation system since 2007 are analyzed in this paper.From foundation technique,the orders and functions of modules involved in the whole system,including Oracle database,ESB,disaster estimation system,assistant decision system,Web service are combed,and a clear flow chart is made to reveal technique details in the system.Through the statistical analysis,the distribution characteristics of artificial earthquake magnitudes,epicenters,number of people died,calculation time of every event and disaster loess distribution feature in recent two years are obtained,which lead to know what kinds of artificial trigged earthquake events should be added in the future.Based on further analysis on earthquake disaster results,some suggestions are proposed,such as increasing the cost matrix values,decreasing the ratio of injured and died people,and considering extra economic loss according to the construction purposes and factor of economic chain rupture.
Utilizing the Matlab and Arcgis softwares,the earthquake disaster estimation results,trigged artificially,from the Tianjin earthquake emergency comprehensive estimation system since 2007 are analyzed in this paper.From foundation technique,the orders and functions of modules involved in the whole system,including Oracle database,ESB,disaster estimation system,assistant decision system,Web service are combed,and a clear flow chart is made to reveal technique details in the system.Through the statistical analysis,the distribution characteristics of artificial earthquake magnitudes,epicenters,number of people died,calculation time of every event and disaster loess distribution feature in recent two years are obtained,which lead to know what kinds of artificial trigged earthquake events should be added in the future.Based on further analysis on earthquake disaster results,some suggestions are proposed,such as increasing the cost matrix values,decreasing the ratio of injured and died people,and considering extra economic loss according to the construction purposes and factor of economic chain rupture.
引文
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1中科软科技股份有限公司.区域震害动态评估系统设计说明书.2008.
1刘双庆.地震灾害评估数据库约简及评估算法研究——天津市地震局局长基金课题技术报告.2010.
[2]帅向华,杨桂岭,姜立新.日本防灾减灾与地震应急工作现状[J].地震,2004,24(3):101-106.
[3]李永强,聂高众,姜立新,等.意大利地震紧急事务处置与应急响应系统简介[J].国际地震动态,2006,10(334):33-38.
[4]帅向华,姜立新,王栋梁.国家地震应急指挥软件系统研究[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(3):9-104.
[5]马玉宏,谢礼立.地震人员伤亡估算方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2000,20(4):140-147.
[6]Chen,Y.,Chen,L.,Federico,G.,Ota,K.,Li,J..Seismic Hazard and Loss Estimation for CentralAmerica[J].Natural Hazards,2002,25:161-175.
[7]王晓青,丁香,王龙,等.四川汶川8级大地震灾害损失快速评估研究[J].地震学报,2009,31(2):205-211.
[8]Seda Kundak.Economic loss estimation for earthquakehazard in Istanbul[J].44th European congress of theEuropean regional science association Regions and FiscalFederalism 25-29 August 2004,Porto,Portugal.
[9]胡聿贤.地震工程学[M],北京:地震出版社,2006.
[10]郝敏,谢礼立,王家全.921台湾集集地震灾害最严重地区的烈度评定[J].世界地震工程,2006,22(4):22-27.
[11]梁凯利,王峰.中外地震专家对海地地震的综合分析[J].国际地震动态,2010,1(373):3-5.
[12]袁一凡.四川汶川8.0级地震损失评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(5):10-19.
[13]潘华,李金臣,吴迪忠.2007年7月16日日本新地震对柏崎刈羽核电站的影响[J].国际地震动态,2007,11(347):21-32.
1中科软科技股份有限公司.区域震害动态评估系统设计说明书.2008.
1刘双庆.地震灾害评估数据库约简及评估算法研究——天津市地震局局长基金课题技术报告.2010.
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