基于灾情信息序贯观测的应急物资分配模型
摘要
突发事件发生后,精确的灾情信息非常需要但难以获得,需要进行序贯观测。在此情景下,文章首先建立了以应急物资分配决策问题的贝叶斯风险最小为目标的优化模型;然后使用贝叶斯分析求解出灾情信息最优观测次数和最优物资分配量;最后以2008年四川汶川地震中11个重灾区为案例进行了实证分析,结果令人满意。
引文
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[2]Yi W,zdamar L.A Dynamic Logistics Coordination Model for Evac-uation and Support in Disaster Response Activities[J].European Jour-nal of Operational Research,2007,179(3).
[3]Sheu J B.Challenges of Emergency Logistics Management[J].Trans-portation Research Part E,2007,(43).
[4]Burton I,Kates R W,White G F.The Environment as Hazard(2ndEdi-tion)[M].New York:The Guilford Press,1993.
[5]史培军.四论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(6).
[6]石丽红,栗斌,张清浦.防灾减灾系统灾情信息集成技术研究[J].地理信息世界,2007(,2).
[7]Fiedrich,F,Gehbauer F,Rickers U.Optimized Resource Allocationfor Emergency Response after Earthquake Disasters[J].Safety Sci-ence,2000,(35).
[8]王大鹏.灾害评估员描述北川灾情:村子随山石滑下山坡[N].北京晨报,2008-5-17.
[9]冯嘉礼,张永兴,郭勇等.核事故应急中的贝叶斯决策模型研究[J].核科学与工程,2001,21(4).
[10]Emmett J L J,Selda T.Supply Chain Planning for Hurricane Re-sponse with Wind Speed Information Updates[J].Computers&Oper-ations Research,2009,(36).
[11]Sheu J B.Dynamic Relief-demand Management for Emergency Lo-gistics Operations under Large-scale Disasters[J].TransportationResearch Part E,2010,(46).
[12]聂高众,高建国,苏桂武等.地震应急救助需求的模型化处理——来自地震震例的经验分析[J].资源科学,2001,23(1).
[13]李磊.地震应急救援现场需求分析及物资保障[J].防灾科技学院学报,2006,8(3).
[14]葛洪磊,刘南,张国川等.基于受灾人员损失多受灾点、多商品应急物资分配模型[J].系统管理学报,2010,19(5).
[15]Berger J O.Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis(2ndE-dition)[M].Berlin:Springer Science+Business Media,1985.
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