四川地区地震与降水量的统计分析
|
摘要
利用四川省1961~2008年降水量资料,分析了四川地区近40年Ms6.0级以上地震前后震中区附近的降水量变化特征,同时分析了2008年5月四川汶川特大地震前的降水量变化特征,并利用地震前后降水量变化的统计特征,研究了未来几个月汶川附近地区降水量的可能变化。研究结果表明:地震前约半年,月降水量距平百分率呈减小的趋势;地震后约半年,月降水量距平百分率呈增加的趋势,并且,地震后月降水距平百分率大都大于地震前。汶川特大地震前5个月,其附近地区月降水量距平百分率呈减小的趋势,如果该区5月降水量距平百分率大于零,未来几个月,汶川附近的降水总量将可能高于历史同期。
The precipitation around the epicenter of Sichuan province in last four decades and the Wenchuan earthquake happened in May,2008 were analyzed by using the precipitation dataset of Sichuan province from 1961 to 2008.The law of precipitation before and after the earthquake were extracted and used to project the precipitation of Wenchuan in this summer.The results indicate that the percentage of monthly precipitation anomaly(POMPA) had a decreased trend about six months before earthquake happened,and had an increased trend about six months after earthquake happened.The POMPA before earthquake happened always lower than after earthquake happened.About five months before the Wenchuan earthquake happened,the POMPA had a decreased trend.If the POMPA in May is greater than zero,the precipitation of Wenchuan in this summer may greater than the multi-years mean according to the law between precipitation and earthquake.
The precipitation around the epicenter of Sichuan province in last four decades and the Wenchuan earthquake happened in May,2008 were analyzed by using the precipitation dataset of Sichuan province from 1961 to 2008.The law of precipitation before and after the earthquake were extracted and used to project the precipitation of Wenchuan in this summer.The results indicate that the percentage of monthly precipitation anomaly(POMPA) had a decreased trend about six months before earthquake happened,and had an increased trend about six months after earthquake happened.The POMPA before earthquake happened always lower than after earthquake happened.About five months before the Wenchuan earthquake happened,the POMPA had a decreased trend.If the POMPA in May is greater than zero,the precipitation of Wenchuan in this summer may greater than the multi-years mean according to the law between precipitation and earthquake.
引文
[1]范新岗,汤懋苍.大地震前后地温、降水及浅层热流量场的结构特征[J].地球物理学报,1994,37(s1):191-203
[2]董文杰,汤懋苍,董治平,等.1966年云南东川6.5级地震的热异常时空结构分析[J].西北地震学报,1994,16(1):21-26
[3]汤懋苍,胡宗海.强地震影响年降水量的统计分析[J].西北地震学报,1990,12(1):19-29
[4]赵红岩,汤懋苍,张拥军,等.旱-震-涝关系及其在短期气候预测中的可能应用[J].自然科学进展,2007,17(1):132-136
[5]柳艳香,郭维栋,荡懋苍,等.1996-1998年逐月地震地温场与降水演变分析[J].高原气象,2000,19(3):304-312
[6]汤懋苍,高晓清,柳艳香,等.长江、黄河大洪水前期地球系统演变的分析[J].高原气象,2000,19(4):441-44
[2]董文杰,汤懋苍,董治平,等.1966年云南东川6.5级地震的热异常时空结构分析[J].西北地震学报,1994,16(1):21-26
[3]汤懋苍,胡宗海.强地震影响年降水量的统计分析[J].西北地震学报,1990,12(1):19-29
[4]赵红岩,汤懋苍,张拥军,等.旱-震-涝关系及其在短期气候预测中的可能应用[J].自然科学进展,2007,17(1):132-136
[5]柳艳香,郭维栋,荡懋苍,等.1996-1998年逐月地震地温场与降水演变分析[J].高原气象,2000,19(3):304-312
[6]汤懋苍,高晓清,柳艳香,等.长江、黄河大洪水前期地球系统演变的分析[J].高原气象,2000,19(4):441-44
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心