活断层定量资料在大震年发生率评定中的应用
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摘要
大震年发生率的评定在地震区划中是一项非常重要的工作。但由于大震复发行为的复杂性,目前尚未建立合理的大震复发模型。本文通过美国地震区划图的截断G-R关系模型和特征地震模型组成的混合模型,利用活断层地质定量资料(滑动速率、古地震等)评定了大震的年发生率。结合我国的地震构造环境特征和资料的精细程度,将以上方法加以修正,并选择典型断裂进行了计算,同时还把计算结果与我国第三代、第四代地震区划图进行了比较和分析。
The estimation of annual rate of large earthquakes is a very important job in seismic zonation. Due to the complexity of the recurrences behavior of large earthquakes, the ideal model of large earthquake recurrences have yet not been developed. In this paper we evaluate the average annual rate of high earthquake intervals with application of a combined model used in the U.S. seismic hazard maps by the weighted cut-off G-R relationship model and characteristic earthquake model and fault quantitative data (slip rate and paleoearthquake sequence et al.). So the above method is revised according to the characteristics of China’s seismic tectonic environment and the research precision of quantitative data on active faults. With this combined model we calculate earthquake recurrence rates along some typical faults. Our results are compared with that from the third and forth seismic zonation maps of China.
The estimation of annual rate of large earthquakes is a very important job in seismic zonation. Due to the complexity of the recurrences behavior of large earthquakes, the ideal model of large earthquake recurrences have yet not been developed. In this paper we evaluate the average annual rate of high earthquake intervals with application of a combined model used in the U.S. seismic hazard maps by the weighted cut-off G-R relationship model and characteristic earthquake model and fault quantitative data (slip rate and paleoearthquake sequence et al.). So the above method is revised according to the characteristics of China’s seismic tectonic environment and the research precision of quantitative data on active faults. With this combined model we calculate earthquake recurrence rates along some typical faults. Our results are compared with that from the third and forth seismic zonation maps of China.
引文
邓起东,闻学泽,2008.活动构造研究——历史、进展与建议.地震地质,30(1):1—30.
高孟潭,2003.新的国家地震区划图.地震学报,25(6):630—636.
高孟潭,卢寿德,2006.关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨.震灾防御技术,1(1):1—6.
李天祒,杜其方,游泽李,1997.鲜水河活动断裂带及强震危险性评估.成都:成都地图出版社,1—230.
孟宪梁,杜春涛,王瑞,1983.1679年三河-平谷大地震的地震断裂带.地震,13(3):18—23.
冉洪流,何宏林,2006.鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级(M≥6.7)及复发间隔研究.地球物理学报,49(1):153—161.
冉勇康,陈立春,杨晓平等,2003.鄂尔多斯地块北缘主要活动断裂晚第四纪强震复发特征.中国科学(D辑),33(B04):135—143.
任俊杰,陈虹,2004.东昆仑断裂带地震复发周期及发震概率研究.大地测量与地球动力学,24(3):51—56.
沈军,汪一鹏,1999.用断裂滑动速率估计小江断裂带的地震危险性.地震研究,22(3):251—259.
王椿镛,韩渭宾,吴建平等,2003.松潘-甘孜造山带地壳速度结构.地震学报,25(3):229—241.
王辉,张国民,江在森,2005.利用多种地震学参数研究中国大陆地壳应变场.地震,25(2):9—18.
闻学泽,1995.活动断裂的地震潜势的定量评价.北京:地震出版社,1—146.
闻学泽,1998.时间相依的活动断裂分段地震危险性评估及其问题.科学通报,43(14):1457—1466.
闻学泽,1999.中国大陆活动断裂的段破裂地震复发行为.地震学报,21(4):411—418.
向宏发,方仲景,徐杰,1988.三河-平谷8级地震区的构造背景与大震重复性研究.地震地质,10(1):15—28.
徐锡伟,闻学泽,郑荣章,2003.川滇地区活动块体最新构造变动样式及其动力来源.中国科学(D辑),33(增刊):151—162.
徐锡伟,吴卫民,张先康等,2002.首都圈地区地壳最新构造变动与地震.北京:科学出版社,118—133.
张培震,闵伟,邓起东,毛凤英,2003.海原活动断裂带的古地震与强震复发规律.中国科学(D辑),33(8):705—713.
张永庆,谢富仁,2007.活动断裂地震危险性的研究现状和展望.震灾防御技术,2(1):64—74.
周本刚,沈得秀,2006.地震安全性评价中若干地震地质问题探讨.震灾防御技术,1(2):113—120
Frankel A.,Petersen M.,Mueller C.et al.,2002.Documentation for the2002Update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps.Open-file Report02-420,Washington DC:U.S.Geological Survey,2-31.
Frankel A.,Mueller C.,Barnhard T.et al.,1995.National Seismic Hazard Maps:Documentation June1996.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report96-532,Denver:U.S.Geological Survey,1-110.
Gurpinar A.,2005.The importance of paleoseismology in seismic hazard studies for critical facilities.Tectonophysics,408(1-4):23—28.
Petersen M.D.,Bryant W.A.,Cramer C.H.et al.,1996.Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the State of California.California Division of Mines and Geology Open-File Report96-08,USGS Open File Report96-706.
Petersen M.D.,Frankel A.D.,Harmsen S.C.et al.,2008.Documentation for the2008Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report2008–1128.
Schwartz D.P.,Coppersmith K.J.,1984.Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes:Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas faults.Journal of Geophysical Research,89(5):873—890.
Shimazaki K.and Nakata T.,1980.Time-predictable recurrence of large earthquake.Geophys.Res.Lett.,No.7:279—282.
Weldon R.,Sharer K.,Fumal T.et al.,2004.Wrightwood and the earthquake cycle:What a long recurrence record tells us about how faults work.GSA Today,14(9):4—10.
Weldon R.,Fumal T.,Biasi G.et al.,2005.Past and future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault.Science,308:966—967.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities(WGCEP),2008.The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast.Version2(UCERF2):U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report2007-1437and California Geological Survey Special Report203.
高孟潭,2003.新的国家地震区划图.地震学报,25(6):630—636.
高孟潭,卢寿德,2006.关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨.震灾防御技术,1(1):1—6.
李天祒,杜其方,游泽李,1997.鲜水河活动断裂带及强震危险性评估.成都:成都地图出版社,1—230.
孟宪梁,杜春涛,王瑞,1983.1679年三河-平谷大地震的地震断裂带.地震,13(3):18—23.
冉洪流,何宏林,2006.鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级(M≥6.7)及复发间隔研究.地球物理学报,49(1):153—161.
冉勇康,陈立春,杨晓平等,2003.鄂尔多斯地块北缘主要活动断裂晚第四纪强震复发特征.中国科学(D辑),33(B04):135—143.
任俊杰,陈虹,2004.东昆仑断裂带地震复发周期及发震概率研究.大地测量与地球动力学,24(3):51—56.
沈军,汪一鹏,1999.用断裂滑动速率估计小江断裂带的地震危险性.地震研究,22(3):251—259.
王椿镛,韩渭宾,吴建平等,2003.松潘-甘孜造山带地壳速度结构.地震学报,25(3):229—241.
王辉,张国民,江在森,2005.利用多种地震学参数研究中国大陆地壳应变场.地震,25(2):9—18.
闻学泽,1995.活动断裂的地震潜势的定量评价.北京:地震出版社,1—146.
闻学泽,1998.时间相依的活动断裂分段地震危险性评估及其问题.科学通报,43(14):1457—1466.
闻学泽,1999.中国大陆活动断裂的段破裂地震复发行为.地震学报,21(4):411—418.
向宏发,方仲景,徐杰,1988.三河-平谷8级地震区的构造背景与大震重复性研究.地震地质,10(1):15—28.
徐锡伟,闻学泽,郑荣章,2003.川滇地区活动块体最新构造变动样式及其动力来源.中国科学(D辑),33(增刊):151—162.
徐锡伟,吴卫民,张先康等,2002.首都圈地区地壳最新构造变动与地震.北京:科学出版社,118—133.
张培震,闵伟,邓起东,毛凤英,2003.海原活动断裂带的古地震与强震复发规律.中国科学(D辑),33(8):705—713.
张永庆,谢富仁,2007.活动断裂地震危险性的研究现状和展望.震灾防御技术,2(1):64—74.
周本刚,沈得秀,2006.地震安全性评价中若干地震地质问题探讨.震灾防御技术,1(2):113—120
Frankel A.,Petersen M.,Mueller C.et al.,2002.Documentation for the2002Update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps.Open-file Report02-420,Washington DC:U.S.Geological Survey,2-31.
Frankel A.,Mueller C.,Barnhard T.et al.,1995.National Seismic Hazard Maps:Documentation June1996.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report96-532,Denver:U.S.Geological Survey,1-110.
Gurpinar A.,2005.The importance of paleoseismology in seismic hazard studies for critical facilities.Tectonophysics,408(1-4):23—28.
Petersen M.D.,Bryant W.A.,Cramer C.H.et al.,1996.Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the State of California.California Division of Mines and Geology Open-File Report96-08,USGS Open File Report96-706.
Petersen M.D.,Frankel A.D.,Harmsen S.C.et al.,2008.Documentation for the2008Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report2008–1128.
Schwartz D.P.,Coppersmith K.J.,1984.Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes:Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas faults.Journal of Geophysical Research,89(5):873—890.
Shimazaki K.and Nakata T.,1980.Time-predictable recurrence of large earthquake.Geophys.Res.Lett.,No.7:279—282.
Weldon R.,Sharer K.,Fumal T.et al.,2004.Wrightwood and the earthquake cycle:What a long recurrence record tells us about how faults work.GSA Today,14(9):4—10.
Weldon R.,Fumal T.,Biasi G.et al.,2005.Past and future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault.Science,308:966—967.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities(WGCEP),2008.The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast.Version2(UCERF2):U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report2007-1437and California Geological Survey Special Report203.
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