2001年10月27日云南永胜6.0级地震的前兆异常特征
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摘要
系统研究了永胜地震前云南地区的各种前兆异常 ,发现 :震前 2个月永胜地区的断层面总面积、多分维、蠕变、地震活动频度熵、地震活动强度熵呈明显异常 ;震前 1年滇西北为低温异常区和高雨量异常区 ;震前 3年滇西北地区GPS测量存在明显的奇异水平运动异常和最大剪切应变异常 ;震前 2 5年至数十天云南地区出现大量的定点前兆异常成团分布 ,尤以滇西北最为集中。经分析后认为 ,永胜 6 0级地震的各种前兆异常是明显的 ,普遍存在的 ;永胜 6 0级地震的孕育时间为 2 5年 ;目前云南地区仍存在 3个孕震区 (滇西北、小滇西、滇东南 ) ,未来 3年甚至更短时间内云南地区的 6级地震可能发生在第 3个孕震区———滇东南地区。
Different precursory anomalies in Yunnan region before the Yongsheng earthquake are studied systematically.The results show striking anomalies in total area of fault plane,multi-fractal,creep,seismic active frequency entropy and seismic active strength entropy in Yongsheng region two months before the earthquake,low temperature and high amount of precipitation in northwest Yunnan one year before the earthquake,striking horizontal movement and maximum shear strain anomalies in GPS measure in northwest Yunnan 3 years before the earthquake and fixed-point distribution of precursory anomalies in Yunnna region,especially in northwest Yunnan,from several ten days to 2 5 years before the earthquake.It is be considered through analyzing the anomalies that there were different precursory anomalies before the Yongsheng earthquake of M 6 0;the preparation time for the Yongsheng earthquake of M 6 0 was 2 5 years;there are now the tree earthquake preparation regions,northwest Yunnan region,small west Yunnan region and southeast Yunnan region,in Yunnan and the earthquakes with M 6 0 in Yunnan region might occur in the southeast Yunnan region in future 3 years or even less than 3 years.
Different precursory anomalies in Yunnan region before the Yongsheng earthquake are studied systematically.The results show striking anomalies in total area of fault plane,multi-fractal,creep,seismic active frequency entropy and seismic active strength entropy in Yongsheng region two months before the earthquake,low temperature and high amount of precipitation in northwest Yunnan one year before the earthquake,striking horizontal movement and maximum shear strain anomalies in GPS measure in northwest Yunnan 3 years before the earthquake and fixed-point distribution of precursory anomalies in Yunnna region,especially in northwest Yunnan,from several ten days to 2 5 years before the earthquake.It is be considered through analyzing the anomalies that there were different precursory anomalies before the Yongsheng earthquake of M 6 0;the preparation time for the Yongsheng earthquake of M 6 0 was 2 5 years;there are now the tree earthquake preparation regions,northwest Yunnan region,small west Yunnan region and southeast Yunnan region,in Yunnan and the earthquakes with M 6 0 in Yunnan region might occur in the southeast Yunnan region in future 3 years or even less than 3 years.
引文
①云南省地震局.云南省2002年度地震趋势研究报告.2001.
[1]陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2002.
[1]陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2002.
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