云南断层形变强震异常特征
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摘要
运用1983～2009年云南地区跨断层短水准短基线观测资料,研究了该时段3组7次M≥6.5地震(澜沧—耿马M7.6、M7.2,孟连M7.3、武定M6.5、丽江M7.0,姚安M6.5、缅北M7.0)的形变前兆特征。以断层运动速率与基准值之比定义异常参数R,定量分析了异常与本区域强震的关系,提出强震预测指标。结果表明,R值出现异常后0.5～16个月,川滇菱块内发生M≥6.5或菱块外围400km范围内发生M≥7.0,并表现出不同的异常特征。菱块外强震前比菱块内强震前R值异常出现时间早,异常持续时间较长;菱块外强震前R为正值异常,菱块内强震前R为负值异常。研究结果对预测云南地区M≥6.5强震有一定的应用价值。
The deformation precursor characteristics of 7 earthquakes(Lancang M7.6,Gengma M7.2,Menglian M7.3,Wuding M6.5,Lijiang M7.0,Yao-an M6.5,North Myanmar M7.0)in 3 groups for M≥6.5 in the corresponding period were studied by using the crossfault deformation data from 1983 to 2009 in Yunnan region,and the relation between the anomalies and strong earthquakes in Yunnan region was analyzed quantitatively by taking the ratio of deformation rate to datum value as the anomaly parameter R value,and strong earthquake prediction indexes were brought up.The results show that M≥6.5 earthquakes in the interior or M≥7.0 earthquakes in outside area for ranging 400 km of Sichuan-Yunnan Rhombic Block occur in 0.5~16 months after the anomaly parameters R value,which displays distinguishing features.Anomaly parameter R appears earlier and longer for the time of duration outside than interior earthquakes of Sichuan-Yunnan Rhombic Block,and appears positive anomaly before outside strong earthquakes and negative anomaly before interior earthquakes.This paper is valuable for M≥6.5 strong earthquake prediction in Yunnan region.
The deformation precursor characteristics of 7 earthquakes(Lancang M7.6,Gengma M7.2,Menglian M7.3,Wuding M6.5,Lijiang M7.0,Yao-an M6.5,North Myanmar M7.0)in 3 groups for M≥6.5 in the corresponding period were studied by using the crossfault deformation data from 1983 to 2009 in Yunnan region,and the relation between the anomalies and strong earthquakes in Yunnan region was analyzed quantitatively by taking the ratio of deformation rate to datum value as the anomaly parameter R value,and strong earthquake prediction indexes were brought up.The results show that M≥6.5 earthquakes in the interior or M≥7.0 earthquakes in outside area for ranging 400 km of Sichuan-Yunnan Rhombic Block occur in 0.5~16 months after the anomaly parameters R value,which displays distinguishing features.Anomaly parameter R appears earlier and longer for the time of duration outside than interior earthquakes of Sichuan-Yunnan Rhombic Block,and appears positive anomaly before outside strong earthquakes and negative anomaly before interior earthquakes.This paper is valuable for M≥6.5 strong earthquake prediction in Yunnan region.
引文
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国家地震局《1976年唐山地震》编辑组.1982.1976年唐山地震[M].北京:地震出版社.
黄雍,张建国,乔森,等.2002.2001年云南施甸中强震群研究[M].昆明:云南科技出版社,240-242.
江在森,丁平,王双绪,等.2001.中国西部大地形变监测与地震预测[M].北京:地震出版社,5-6.
里兹尼钦科.1982.地震物理研究[M].韩大宇,傅征祥译.北京:地震出版社.
力武常次.1978.地震预报[M].冯锐,周新华译.北京:地震出版社.
刘强,石绍先.2005.云南地区断层形变群体异常与成组强震[J].地震研究,28(3):219-225.
刘强,王世芹,王永安.2003.云南地区断层形变速率异常及强震预测指标[J].四川地震,(4):28-33.
刘强,余庆坤.2004.2003年大姚6.2和6.1级地震的断层形变异常特征[J].地震研究,27(4):301-307.
刘祖荫,苏有锦,秦嘉政,等.2002.20世纪云南地震活动[M].北京:地震出版社.
张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰,等.2001.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社.
Rit sema A R.1984.The generation of intra-plate earthquakes,in a collec-tion of papers of international symposiumon continental seismicity andearthquake prediction[M].edited by the Organizing Committee ofISCSEP,Seismological Press,Beijing,China:694-707.
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