基于元胞自动机的城市区域火蔓延概率模型探讨
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摘要
考虑建筑结构物震后可能发生的次生火灾的不确定性,给出解决问题的基本思路,构建了基于元胞自动机的城市地震次生火灾蔓延概率模型,指出元胞着火的概率与建筑物的特性和灾害条件有关,包括建筑材料、外墙是否有开口、与着火元胞的距离、地震对建筑的破坏程度以及气象条件等因素。模型通过设置没有开口的外墙以及道路和空地来区分单体建筑和建筑之间的火蔓延。该模型量化了影响火蔓延概率的因素,能快速实现城市区域火蔓延过程的动态模拟,特别适宜用于城市宏观角度上的火蔓延模拟。模拟结果再现了火灾过程,这不仅提高了人们对城市区域火蔓延危害的认识,而且为城市规划设计和消防扑救措施提供了有益的理论依据。
The uncertainty of the secondary fire disaster occurrence of structure buildings following an earthquake is discussed,and a post-earthquake fire spreading probability model is developed based on cellular automata.The probability of ignition is related with the characters of the buildings and disaster's conditions,such as the material of the buildings,whether the outer wall with openings,the distance from the burning cell,the destruction of the buildings and the weather condition.The model can simulate the process of urban fire spread conveniently.The fire spreading process has been reproduced successfully by our model.The reproduction of fire process not only improves the people's cognition,but also provides the certain basis for city planning and fire control.
The uncertainty of the secondary fire disaster occurrence of structure buildings following an earthquake is discussed,and a post-earthquake fire spreading probability model is developed based on cellular automata.The probability of ignition is related with the characters of the buildings and disaster's conditions,such as the material of the buildings,whether the outer wall with openings,the distance from the burning cell,the destruction of the buildings and the weather condition.The model can simulate the process of urban fire spread conveniently.The fire spreading process has been reproduced successfully by our model.The reproduction of fire process not only improves the people's cognition,but also provides the certain basis for city planning and fire control.
引文
[1]赵思健,任爱珠,熊利亚等.城市地震次生火灾研究综述[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(2):57～67
[2]HIMOTO Keisuke,TANAKA Takeyoshi.A physically-based model for urban fire spread[A].First Safety Science-Pro-ceedings of The Seven International Symposium[C],2002:129-140
[3]赵思健,熊利亚,任爱珠等.基于GIS的城市特大火灾蔓延模拟[J].火灾科学,2006,15(3):128～137
[4]伍爱友,施式亮,王从陆等.基于神经网络和遗传算法的城市火灾风险评价模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(11):108～113
[5]李杰,江建华.城市地震次生火灾危险性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(2):87～92
[6]易立新,吴立志.城市火灾风险评价的数学模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2000,10(4):36～40
[7]I.Karafyllidis,A.Thanailakis.A model for predicting forest fire spreading using cellular automata[J].Ecological Mod-elling,1997,99:87-97
[8]A.Herna′ndez Encinas et al.Simulation of forest fire fronts using cellular automata[J].Advances in Engineering Soft-ware,2007,38:372?378
[9]Akira Ohgai,Yoshimizu Gohnai,Kojiro Watanabe.Cellular automata modeling of fire spread in built-up areas-A tool to aid community-based planning for disaster mitigation[J].Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,2007,31(4):441-460
[10]Jirou,K.,&Kobayashi,K.Fire on a regional scale.In Fire Institute of Japan(Ed.)[M].Fire Handbook.Kyoritsu Publisher,Tokyo,1997
[11]Sugahara,S.The Theory of Urban Fire Spread[M].Fire Handbook.Kyoritsu Publisher,Tokyo,1997
[12]赵振东,余世舟,钟江荣等.建筑物震后火灾发生于蔓延危险性分析的概率模型[J].地震工程与工程振动,2003,23(4):183～187
[13]Sekizawa A.Post—earthquake fires and firefighting activities in the early stage in the1995Great Hanshin earthquake[A].Thirteenth Meeting of the UJNR Panel on Fire Research and Safety[C],1996.2:289-302
[2]HIMOTO Keisuke,TANAKA Takeyoshi.A physically-based model for urban fire spread[A].First Safety Science-Pro-ceedings of The Seven International Symposium[C],2002:129-140
[3]赵思健,熊利亚,任爱珠等.基于GIS的城市特大火灾蔓延模拟[J].火灾科学,2006,15(3):128～137
[4]伍爱友,施式亮,王从陆等.基于神经网络和遗传算法的城市火灾风险评价模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(11):108～113
[5]李杰,江建华.城市地震次生火灾危险性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(2):87～92
[6]易立新,吴立志.城市火灾风险评价的数学模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2000,10(4):36～40
[7]I.Karafyllidis,A.Thanailakis.A model for predicting forest fire spreading using cellular automata[J].Ecological Mod-elling,1997,99:87-97
[8]A.Herna′ndez Encinas et al.Simulation of forest fire fronts using cellular automata[J].Advances in Engineering Soft-ware,2007,38:372?378
[9]Akira Ohgai,Yoshimizu Gohnai,Kojiro Watanabe.Cellular automata modeling of fire spread in built-up areas-A tool to aid community-based planning for disaster mitigation[J].Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,2007,31(4):441-460
[10]Jirou,K.,&Kobayashi,K.Fire on a regional scale.In Fire Institute of Japan(Ed.)[M].Fire Handbook.Kyoritsu Publisher,Tokyo,1997
[11]Sugahara,S.The Theory of Urban Fire Spread[M].Fire Handbook.Kyoritsu Publisher,Tokyo,1997
[12]赵振东,余世舟,钟江荣等.建筑物震后火灾发生于蔓延危险性分析的概率模型[J].地震工程与工程振动,2003,23(4):183～187
[13]Sekizawa A.Post—earthquake fires and firefighting activities in the early stage in the1995Great Hanshin earthquake[A].Thirteenth Meeting of the UJNR Panel on Fire Research and Safety[C],1996.2:289-302
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