2003~2004年吴忠、灵武地区地震活动性分析
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摘要
2003年12月至2004年8月,宁夏吴忠、灵武地区出现了一次地震活动增强过程,与已有震例震前的地震活动增强过程非常相似,因此导致了一次地震短临预测,但此次地震预测后来证实为虚报。从经验预报的角度来看此次地震短临预测的依据是充分的。但利用地震活动加速模型进行分析的结果表明,此次地震活动过程能量释放随时间的加速程度不够,不足以导致一次MS5.0以上地震的发生。因此认为,现阶段地震预报应结合物理预测方法来进行,以克服经验预报的局限性。
An increasing process of seismic activity appeared in the Wuzhong and Lingwu regions of Ningxia between Dec.2003 and Aug.2004,which is very similar to the situations before existed earthquake examples.In this case,we proposed a shortimpending earthquake prediction,but it is proved an false prediction later.From the angle of empirical prediction,the bases of this short-impending prediction are sufficient.However,the result from seismicity acceleration model shows that the degree of energy release accelerating with time during this seismicity process is not enough to cause an earthquake with M_S≥5.0.So we think that,in present time,earthquake prediction should be done combining with physical prediction methods so as to overcome the limits of empirical prediction.
An increasing process of seismic activity appeared in the Wuzhong and Lingwu regions of Ningxia between Dec.2003 and Aug.2004,which is very similar to the situations before existed earthquake examples.In this case,we proposed a shortimpending earthquake prediction,but it is proved an false prediction later.From the angle of empirical prediction,the bases of this short-impending prediction are sufficient.However,the result from seismicity acceleration model shows that the degree of energy release accelerating with time during this seismicity process is not enough to cause an earthquake with M_S≥5.0.So we think that,in present time,earthquake prediction should be done combining with physical prediction methods so as to overcome the limits of empirical prediction.
引文
[1]张文孝.1971年6月28日宁夏回族自治区吴忠5.1级地震[A].见:中国震例(1966—1975)[C].北京:地震出版社,1988.
[2]张文孝.1984年11月23日宁夏回族自治区灵武5.3级地震[A].见:中国震例(1981—1985)[C].北京:地震出版社,1990.
[3]赵卫明,李根起,任庆维.1987年8月10日宁夏回族自治区灵武5.5级地震[A].见:中国震例(1986—1988)[C].北京:地震出版社,1999.
[4]赵卫明,李根起,任庆维.1988年1月4日宁夏回族自治区灵武5.5级地震[A].见:中国震例(1986—1988)[C].北京:地震出版社,1999.
[5]柴炽章,廖玉华,张文孝,等.灵武断裂晚第四纪古地震及其破裂特征[J].地震地质,2001,23(1):15-23.
[6]柴炽章,张文孝,廖玉华,等.危险率函数在地表破裂型地震危险性评估中的作用———以宁夏灵武断裂为例[J].中国地震,2001,17(3):271-279.
[7]Atk inson B K.Subcritical crack propagation in rocks:theory,ex-perim ental resu lts and applications[J].J StructGeol,1982(4):41-56.
[8]Atk inson B K.Subcritical crack growth in geologicalmaterials[J].J Geophys Res,1984(89):4077-4114.
[9]Charles R J.Static fatigue of glass[J].J Appl Phys,1958(29):1549-1560.
[10]Varnes D J.Pred icting earthquake by analyzing accelerating pre-cursory seism ic activity[J].Pure Appl Geophys,1989(130):661-686.
[11]马禾青,赵卫明,张文孝,等.地震活动加速模型在西北地区的应用[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(4):344-347.
[2]张文孝.1984年11月23日宁夏回族自治区灵武5.3级地震[A].见:中国震例(1981—1985)[C].北京:地震出版社,1990.
[3]赵卫明,李根起,任庆维.1987年8月10日宁夏回族自治区灵武5.5级地震[A].见:中国震例(1986—1988)[C].北京:地震出版社,1999.
[4]赵卫明,李根起,任庆维.1988年1月4日宁夏回族自治区灵武5.5级地震[A].见:中国震例(1986—1988)[C].北京:地震出版社,1999.
[5]柴炽章,廖玉华,张文孝,等.灵武断裂晚第四纪古地震及其破裂特征[J].地震地质,2001,23(1):15-23.
[6]柴炽章,张文孝,廖玉华,等.危险率函数在地表破裂型地震危险性评估中的作用———以宁夏灵武断裂为例[J].中国地震,2001,17(3):271-279.
[7]Atk inson B K.Subcritical crack propagation in rocks:theory,ex-perim ental resu lts and applications[J].J StructGeol,1982(4):41-56.
[8]Atk inson B K.Subcritical crack growth in geologicalmaterials[J].J Geophys Res,1984(89):4077-4114.
[9]Charles R J.Static fatigue of glass[J].J Appl Phys,1958(29):1549-1560.
[10]Varnes D J.Pred icting earthquake by analyzing accelerating pre-cursory seism ic activity[J].Pure Appl Geophys,1989(130):661-686.
[11]马禾青,赵卫明,张文孝,等.地震活动加速模型在西北地区的应用[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(4):344-347.
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