新疆喀什地区地震活动趋势——基于可公度方法的研究
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摘要
新疆喀什地区是我国地震活动频繁的区域之一,且震级高,烈度大。应用三元、四元、五元可公度方法,对新疆近100年来6.5级以上的地震进行分析得到:未来10年内,喀什地区2013年前后发生≥6.5级地震的可能性很大。
Kashi area of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is one of China's frequent seismicity regions,with high magnitude and large intensity.Based on the method of ternary,quaternary and quintuple commensurability,this paper analyses the earthquakes whose magnitude is more than 6.5 in nearly 100 years.The results shows that in the next 10 years,before and after the year 2013,an earthquake with magnitude equal to or more than 6.5 is more likely to happen.
Kashi area of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is one of China's frequent seismicity regions,with high magnitude and large intensity.Based on the method of ternary,quaternary and quintuple commensurability,this paper analyses the earthquakes whose magnitude is more than 6.5 in nearly 100 years.The results shows that in the next 10 years,before and after the year 2013,an earthquake with magnitude equal to or more than 6.5 is more likely to happen.
引文
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[3]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局.历史地震[EB/OL].[2011-11-01].http://11222.82.248.102:8080/.
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[7]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.
[2]朱令人,陈松涛.初探新疆强震活动的可公度性[J].地震,1985,6(3):10-14.
[3]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局.历史地震[EB/OL].[2011-11-01].http://11222.82.248.102:8080/.
[4]陈祥玉.公元1600-1987年新疆地震目录(Ms>4.7)[J].内陆地震,1988,2(3):320-340.
[5]延军平,闫娜.关于地震预测体系构建的可能性及验证[J].陕西师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2008,37(5):19-23.
[6]翁文波.可公度性[J].地球物理学报,1981,24(2):151-154.
[7]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.
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