华北地区地倾斜中短期地震前兆识别及预报方法研究

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英文篇名：IDENTIFICATION OF MEDIUM AND SHORT TERM SEIMIC PRECURSORS FOR GROUND TILT IN NORTH CHINA AND STUDY ON EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION METHODS 中文刊名：地壳形变与地震 英文刊名：CRUSTAL DEFORMATION AND EARTHQUAKE 作者：陈绍绪 ; 王宝坤 ; 张跃刚 英文作者：Chen Shaoxu ; Wang Baokun and Zhang Yuegang (Seismological Bureau of Hebei Province ; Shijiazhuang 050021) 中文关键词：地倾斜 ; 地震前兆 ; 地震预报 ; 华北地区 英文关键词：crustal tilt ; earthquake precursors ; earthquake prediction ; North China. 出版日期：1999-11-30 机构：河北省地震局!石家庄050021,河北省地震局!石家庄050021,河北省地震局!石家庄050021 年：1999 期：04 出版单位：地壳形变与地震

摘要

对华北地区１７ 个台站２５ 套倾斜仪１０ 年以上的资料，统一用调和分析、卡尔曼滤波和周期滤波方法进行全面系统处理，提取异常信息，统计分析与该地区ＭＳ５ 级以上地震的关系，并对这几种方法进行评价。结果是：地倾斜固体潮Ｍ２ 波γ因子异常与地震的对应率为５７％ ，Ｒ＝０．４０；调和分析残差异常对应率为４１％ ，Ｒ＝ ０．２５；由卡尔曼滤波方法识别的异常与地震的对应率为１５％ ，Ｒ＝ ０．１１；周期滤波方法识别的异常与地震对应率为５９％ ，Ｒ＝ ０．５１。建立了地形变预报地震的综合模型，异常信度在空间上的分布呈同心圆状，地震通常发生在信度高的地区。
The data of 25 sets of tiltmeter in 17 stations over 10 years in north China are processed comprehensively and systematically by the methods of harmonic analysis, Kalman filtering and periodic filtering. The anomaly information of these data and the relation between anomaly and earthquakes ( M S>5) in the region is analyzed statistically. In this way, all methods are evaluated. The results show that 57% anomalies ( R =0.40) identified from γ factor of M 2 waves of ground tilt solid tides, 41% anomalies ( R=0.25 ) picked up from harmonic analysis and 15% anomalies ( R =0.51) recognized from periodic filtering are corresponded to earthquakes. A synthetic prediction model with crustal deformation approach is established. The distribution of anomaly confidence shows elliptic shape, and earthquake usually occurs in high confidence value region.

引文

1　陈光齐,吴翼麟.卡尔曼滤波在连续形变资料处理中的应用,见:地震预报方法实用化攻关研究文集(形变、重力、应变专辑). 北京: 地震出版社,1991.