本世纪初我国大陆7级大震危险性研究
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摘要
地震大形势研究结果表明，我国大陆地区（含边境）１９９９年已进入为期１２年的相对平静幕，幕内可能发生３次７级地震，最大震级不超过７．２级。首发７级地震为２０００年６月８日缅甸７级（位于中缅边境）。预计第二个７级地震危险时间在２００５±０．５年。第三个在２００８年前后。分析了我国主要地震区强震概率增益，给出了３个危险地点。未来３年即２００１～２００３年是相对安全时段，我国大陆不会发生７级以上破坏性地震。２０１１～２０２０年可能进入新世纪第一个７级大地震相对活跃幕，预计该幕持续１０年， 可发生１０次７～７.６级大震。
After analyzing the general earthquake tendency in the continent of China (including the areas of border) , we found that it had entered the relatively quiescent episode about 12 years in 1999 in which there may be 3 earthquakes about MS7 but the maximum is less than 7.2. The first event is the MS = 7.0 occurred in Burma in 2000. The probable time of the second will be in 2005 ( ?0.5 years) , and the third will be about in 2008. In this paper, the possibility increase of strong earthquake is analyzed in the main seismic regions in China. Furthermore, the 3 risk areas and the estimation of the disaster are given. It is the relatively safe period from 2001 to 2003, so there will not be earthquakes MS≥7 in the continent of China. It likely will enter the first relatively active episode of the new century during 2011 - 2020, this episode will last about 10 years and there will be 10 earthquakes MS = 7.0-7.6 within it.
After analyzing the general earthquake tendency in the continent of China (including the areas of border) , we found that it had entered the relatively quiescent episode about 12 years in 1999 in which there may be 3 earthquakes about MS7 but the maximum is less than 7.2. The first event is the MS = 7.0 occurred in Burma in 2000. The probable time of the second will be in 2005 ( ?0.5 years) , and the third will be about in 2008. In this paper, the possibility increase of strong earthquake is analyzed in the main seismic regions in China. Furthermore, the 3 risk areas and the estimation of the disaster are given. It is the relatively safe period from 2001 to 2003, so there will not be earthquakes MS≥7 in the continent of China. It likely will enter the first relatively active episode of the new century during 2011 - 2020, this episode will last about 10 years and there will be 10 earthquakes MS = 7.0-7.6 within it.
引文
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[4] 高孟谭.自然概率估计方法研究—非平稳泊松分布[A].地震预报研究文集,北京:地震出版社,1993,119- 123.
[5] 国家地震局.中国地震烈度区划图[Z].北京:地震出版社,1980.
[6]李海华.中国大陆及其邻区地震幕的划分与时间结构的某些特征[A].中国地震大形势预测研究,北京:地震出 版社,1990,108-113.
[7] 郭增建,秦保燕.大震的重复性与减震作用[A].近期强震危险性研究,北京:地震出版社,1989,455-456.
[8]高旭,李志雄.我国大地震发生后继发强震的时空分布特征[A].中国地震大形势研究,北京:地震出版社, 1993,50—59.
[9]李海华.地震伤亡估算与减轻伤亡对策刍议[A].ISEC论文集,北京:学术书刊出版社,1989,346-351.
[2]P.Bak.自组织的临界状态[J].科学(中译本),1991(5).
[3]李海华.南北地震带北段地震活动的有序性与层次性[J].地球物理学报,1987,30(6).
[4] 高孟谭.自然概率估计方法研究—非平稳泊松分布[A].地震预报研究文集,北京:地震出版社,1993,119- 123.
[5] 国家地震局.中国地震烈度区划图[Z].北京:地震出版社,1980.
[6]李海华.中国大陆及其邻区地震幕的划分与时间结构的某些特征[A].中国地震大形势预测研究,北京:地震出 版社,1990,108-113.
[7] 郭增建,秦保燕.大震的重复性与减震作用[A].近期强震危险性研究,北京:地震出版社,1989,455-456.
[8]高旭,李志雄.我国大地震发生后继发强震的时空分布特征[A].中国地震大形势研究,北京:地震出版社, 1993,50—59.
[9]李海华.地震伤亡估算与减轻伤亡对策刍议[A].ISEC论文集,北京:学术书刊出版社,1989,346-351.
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