新疆及周边地区强震成组活动及其预测研究
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摘要
系统分析了1900年以来新疆及周边6级以上地震成组活动基本特征。结果表明,新疆及周边地区6级以上地震成组活动明显,并具有持续时间短、地震强度大、频度高的特点。新疆及周边地区7级以上地震有95%发生在地震成组活动期间,地震成组活动是该区域发生7级以上强震的中期预测指标之一。地震成组活动一般出现在低活动水平背景下,而且成组地震活动在空间上相对集中分布,在地震活动期间强震存在由新疆西南向北东迁移的特点,其中天山地震带尤其是南天山西段为强震主要的活动区域。地震成组活动伴随地震条带图像的出现;在地震成组活动前或活动中新疆地区前兆测项异常明显增加,具有群体异常的起伏变化过程。
In this paper,we have analyzed systematically the characteristics of seismic activity with the magnitude greater than 6 in Xinjiang and its adjacent area.It shows that the activity has clearly grouping characteristics,and the duration time is short,the intensity and frequency is high.The 95% earthquakes with magnitude greater than 7 in Xinjiang and its adjacent area occurred during the grouping seismic activity period,and the grouping seismic activity is also the index of medium-term prediction.The grouping seismic activity with the magnitude greater than 6 occurred commonly with a weak background of seismic activity,and the area where the grouping seismic activity was relatively centralized,the strong earthquake focus moved form southwest to northeast in Xinjiang.The Tianshan seismic belt is the main area of grouping seismic activity,especially the western part of south Tianshan,and is associated with the seismic bands,the clear increase of the precursor anomaly,and the grouping anomaly shows a changeable course.
In this paper,we have analyzed systematically the characteristics of seismic activity with the magnitude greater than 6 in Xinjiang and its adjacent area.It shows that the activity has clearly grouping characteristics,and the duration time is short,the intensity and frequency is high.The 95% earthquakes with magnitude greater than 7 in Xinjiang and its adjacent area occurred during the grouping seismic activity period,and the grouping seismic activity is also the index of medium-term prediction.The grouping seismic activity with the magnitude greater than 6 occurred commonly with a weak background of seismic activity,and the area where the grouping seismic activity was relatively centralized,the strong earthquake focus moved form southwest to northeast in Xinjiang.The Tianshan seismic belt is the main area of grouping seismic activity,especially the western part of south Tianshan,and is associated with the seismic bands,the clear increase of the precursor anomaly,and the grouping anomaly shows a changeable course.
引文
[1]张国民,李丽.强震成组孕育、成组发生过程中相互影响的研究[J].地震,1997,17(3):221-231.
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[3]刘蒲雄.华北成祖强震孕育过程及预测研究[J].地震,2005,25(3):9-19.
[4]张永仙,余素荣,张晓东,等.中国大陆西部前兆异常涨落与强震短期预测研究[J].地震,2004,24(1):7-17.
[5]李献智,侯建盛.应用综合前兆异常月频度判定地震进入中短期的研究[J].地震,1988,18(4):337-347.
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[8]石耀霖,张永仙,张国民.孕震过程岩石膨胀及断层蠕动的数值模拟研究[J].地震学报,1994,16(增刊):10-17.
[9]张国民,张永仙,石耀霖.地震前兆复杂性的数值模拟研究[J].地震,1994,14(1):2-11.
[2]张国民,耿鲁明,张永仙.构造块体的成组孕育模型和前兆场某些特征的分析[J].地震学报,17(1):1-10.
[3]刘蒲雄.华北成祖强震孕育过程及预测研究[J].地震,2005,25(3):9-19.
[4]张永仙,余素荣,张晓东,等.中国大陆西部前兆异常涨落与强震短期预测研究[J].地震,2004,24(1):7-17.
[5]李献智,侯建盛.应用综合前兆异常月频度判定地震进入中短期的研究[J].地震,1988,18(4):337-347.
[6]李献智,李纲.综合前兆异常月频次在地震预报中的应用及其意义[J].地震,1999,19(4):323-330.
[7]李献智.对地震前兆异常的一些在思考[J].地震,1998,18(2):163-170.
[8]石耀霖,张永仙,张国民.孕震过程岩石膨胀及断层蠕动的数值模拟研究[J].地震学报,1994,16(增刊):10-17.
[9]张国民,张永仙,石耀霖.地震前兆复杂性的数值模拟研究[J].地震,1994,14(1):2-11.
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