滇西北中强震前震级频度分布与G—R关系式的偏离特征
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摘要
本文利用 Ｓ． Ｏｋｕｄａ 等根据 Ｋｕｌｌａｃｋ Ｌｅｉｂｌｅｒ 平均信息给出的表示实际地震震级－ 频度分布与古登堡－ 里克特 （ Ｇ－ Ｒ） 关系式偏离的量度 Ｃ， 研究了滇西北自１９８５ 年７ 月有速报目录以来的中强震前 Ｃ 值偏离特征， 结果表明： Ｃ 值一般在０１３４ － ０１５７ 之间， 中强震前 Ｃ值显著减小（ Ｃ≤ Ｃｏ ， Ｃｏ ＝ ０１３５ 为自组织临界点） ， 对应率为６／７ ＝ ０８６ ， 概括率为６／８ ＝０７５ ， 且首次临界点到发震的时间绝大部份在４ 个月之内， 表明 Ｃ 值异常可作为一个较好的短临预报指标推广使用， 文章还根据 Ｃ 值的变化对１９９６ 年２ 月３ 日丽江７０ 级大地震孕育过程提出了相应的解释。
This paper studies the deviation of magnitude frequency distribution before the medium and strong earthquakes occurred in North west Yunnan since rapid earthquake catalogue was made in July, 1985, using the C showing deviation of practical magnitude frequency distribution from Gutenberg-Richter relation and given by S. Okuda according to Kullback-Leibler Information. The results show that C value generally came between 0.134 and 0.157 and reduced obviously before the medium and strong earthquakes (C≤C o, C o=0.135 for threshold value), with the corresponding rate of 6/7=0.86 and the summarizing rate 6/8=0.75, which shows the C value might be a good index for short-impending earthquake prediction. And also, the author gives explanation of the preparation process of the M 7.0 Lijiang earthquake on Feb. 3, 1996 according to variation in c value.
This paper studies the deviation of magnitude frequency distribution before the medium and strong earthquakes occurred in North west Yunnan since rapid earthquake catalogue was made in July, 1985, using the C showing deviation of practical magnitude frequency distribution from Gutenberg-Richter relation and given by S. Okuda according to Kullback-Leibler Information. The results show that C value generally came between 0.134 and 0.157 and reduced obviously before the medium and strong earthquakes (C≤C o, C o=0.135 for threshold value), with the corresponding rate of 6/7=0.86 and the summarizing rate 6/8=0.75, which shows the C value might be a good index for short-impending earthquake prediction. And also, the author gives explanation of the preparation process of the M 7.0 Lijiang earthquake on Feb. 3, 1996 according to variation in c value.
引文
[1] Deviation of magnitude frenquency distribution of earthquakes from the Guternberg - Richterlaw :detection of precursory anomalies prior to large earthquakes Phys . Earth Planet . Inter .,73 ,3 - 4 , 229 ～238 ,1992
[2] 刘瑞文译, 地震的震级频度分布与古登堡- 里克特关系式的偏离: 大震之前前兆异常的检测, 世界地震译从, N O2 , 1995
[3] 严尊国等, 地震震级- 频度 G- R 关系的偏离度, 地震, 4 , 1995
[2] 刘瑞文译, 地震的震级频度分布与古登堡- 里克特关系式的偏离: 大震之前前兆异常的检测, 世界地震译从, N O2 , 1995
[3] 严尊国等, 地震震级- 频度 G- R 关系的偏离度, 地震, 4 , 1995
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