青藏高原腹地1985年雪灾成因分析
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摘要
分析了 1 985年 1 0月青藏高原腹地一次特大雪灾的地面气象要素场及卫星辐射场特征 ,并对造成重雪灾的原因进行了初步探讨。结果表明 :此次雪灾的范围与过程 ,降水量≥8mm与积雪深度≥ 5cm的范围基本一致 ,雪盖的后延冷却效应较强 ,持续时间近 5个月 ;卫星辐射资料的分析计算结果表明 ,地气系统净辐射收支中行星反照率起主导作用。 1 1月积雪中心区域各因子均达极值—行星反照率距平高达 1 6 % ,OLR距平值减小 - 1 4 .6W/m2 ,地气系统净辐射距平值达 - 2 5 .4W/m2 。初步发现 :如果下半年西天山—帕米尔间 (73°～ 75°E)有 7级以上地震或青藏腹地 (32°～ 35°N ,85°～ 1 0 0°E)有 5 .9级以上地震发生 ,就会引发当年冬季或 /和次年春季的重雪灾。
The surface variables and the characteristics of satellite radiation budget field about a serious snow disaster were analyzed in October 1985 over Central Qinghai Xizang Plateau, and the causing snow disaster were preliminary researched. The results show that the range of precipitation(≥8 mm) and snow depth (≥5 cm) is almost equal. The lag-cooling effect of the snow cover is stronger, continuing time is about five months. The calculated results with satellite radiation data show that the albedo is important in the radiation budget field of earth atmospheric system. In November, every variable in the central area of snow cover is getting to the largest: or so, albedo anomaly is high as 16%, OLR is low as 185.6 W/m 2 and the net radiation is -25.4 W/m 2. The preliminary result were discovered, which there will be serious snow disaster in the winter or/and the next spring over Plateau, if the earth quake (Ms≥7) is appeared between the western Tianshan and Pamier (73°～75°E) or in the Central Plateau(32°～35°N, 85°～100°E) when Ms≥5.9 in last half a year.
The surface variables and the characteristics of satellite radiation budget field about a serious snow disaster were analyzed in October 1985 over Central Qinghai Xizang Plateau, and the causing snow disaster were preliminary researched. The results show that the range of precipitation(≥8 mm) and snow depth (≥5 cm) is almost equal. The lag-cooling effect of the snow cover is stronger, continuing time is about five months. The calculated results with satellite radiation data show that the albedo is important in the radiation budget field of earth atmospheric system. In November, every variable in the central area of snow cover is getting to the largest: or so, albedo anomaly is high as 16%, OLR is low as 185.6 W/m 2 and the net radiation is -25.4 W/m 2. The preliminary result were discovered, which there will be serious snow disaster in the winter or/and the next spring over Plateau, if the earth quake (Ms≥7) is appeared between the western Tianshan and Pamier (73°～75°E) or in the Central Plateau(32°～35°N, 85°～100°E) when Ms≥5.9 in last half a year.
引文
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2 余宁青 ,张琳 ,刘燕玲等 .青海高原雪气候特征的初步研究 .青海气象 ,1990 ,( 1) :19～2 5
3 戴加洗 ,青藏高原气候 .北京 :气象出版社 ,1990 .2 6
4 陈丽华 ,走过西藏 .北京 :作家出版社 ,1998.10 4
5 陈烈庭 ,阎志新 .青藏高原冬春季异常雪盖影响初夏季风的统计分析 .中长期水文气象预报文集 (第二集 ) .北京 :水利电力出版社 ,1981.133～ 14 1
6 郭其蕴 ,王继琴 .青藏高原积雪及其对东亚季风的影响 .高原气象 ,1986 ,5( 2 ) :116～ 12 3
7 叶愈源 .冬季亚欧大陆雪盖与湖南汛期降水 .高原气象 ,1986 ,5( 3) ,2 71～ 2 73
8 周国良 ,范钟秀 ,彭公炳等 .青藏高原积雪与长江中上游汛期的旱涝 .长江三峡致洪暴雨与洪水的中长期预报 .北京 :气象出版社 ,1993.314～ 319
9 孙武林 ,吴永森 .青南高原雪灾序列年表与气候统计特征 .青海气象 ,1996 ,( 1) :3～ 8
10沈志宝 .藏北地区冬季降雪对地面反射率的影响 .高原气象 ,1996 ,15( 2 ) :16 5～ 171
11汤懋苍 ,高晓清 .1980～ 1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征 (Ⅰ ) .中国科学 (B辑 ) ,1995,2 5( 11) :1186～ 1192
12柳艳香 ,汤懋苍 .我国东部夏季地热涡增强的“上游效应” .中国科学 (待发表 )
13郭增建 ,秦保燕 ,郭安宁 .地气耦合与天灾预测 .北京 :地震出版社 ,1993.2 53～ 2 59
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