张北6.2级地震前的中期预报
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摘要
张北6．2级地震发生之前，区域地震活动显示出了明显的异常特征。作者在近几年来对北京西北—晋、冀、蒙交界地区的震情趋势变化给予了高度的注意，根据近几年来华北地区地震活动的总体变化，提出了华北北部地区存在发生强震的危险；尤其是在1997年10～11月，提出了华北地区1998年3月下旬（误差为±5个月）可能会发生Ms6～7级地震的中期预测；并且在强调华北地区存在多源孕震的特征以后，认为“北京西北—晋、冀、蒙交界地区地震活动某些前兆异常出现的时间较早，异常时间较长，故应注意该地区首先发生强震的可能性。”
Before the occurrence of Zhangbei Ms6. 2 earthquake, anomalous characteristics were clearly showed in regional seismicity. In recent years,the authors have paid high attention to the changes of seismic trend within the area from northwestern Beijing to the boundary of Shanxi,Hebei and inner Mongolia,and have proposed that the danger of a strong earthquake existed in the northern part of North China based on the general variations of seismicity in Noth China area in the years passed. Particularly from October to November in the year of 1997,they made a medium term prediction for an earthqake of Ms 6-7 which might occur in the end of March (with an uncertainty of 5 months)of 1998 in North China area. After emphasized the characteristics of multisource seismogeny in North China area,they suggested that "since some precursory anomalies of seismicity appeared earlier in time and long in duration within the area from northwestern Beijing to the boundary of Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia,attention must be paid for a strong earthquake which may first occur in this area.
Before the occurrence of Zhangbei Ms6. 2 earthquake, anomalous characteristics were clearly showed in regional seismicity. In recent years,the authors have paid high attention to the changes of seismic trend within the area from northwestern Beijing to the boundary of Shanxi,Hebei and inner Mongolia,and have proposed that the danger of a strong earthquake existed in the northern part of North China based on the general variations of seismicity in Noth China area in the years passed. Particularly from October to November in the year of 1997,they made a medium term prediction for an earthqake of Ms 6-7 which might occur in the end of March (with an uncertainty of 5 months)of 1998 in North China area. After emphasized the characteristics of multisource seismogeny in North China area,they suggested that "since some precursory anomalies of seismicity appeared earlier in time and long in duration within the area from northwestern Beijing to the boundary of Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia,attention must be paid for a strong earthquake which may first occur in this area.
引文
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