大地震发生的网络性质——兼论有关地震预测的争论
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摘要
现有地震形成机制的假说大多是仅考虑震源及其邻近地区的事实依据。文中提出 :大地震的形成机制具有网络特性 ,把大地震看成是多层次网络的节点。一个地震的发生是多种动力 (包括天文因素 )作用的结果。地震形成机制的网络假说能较好地综合已有概念 ,解释地震预测研究中发现许多新现象。从网络假说看近年来“地震能否预测”的争论可有许多新启示。如果应用网络假说 ,至少一部分地震应是可以预测的。
Most of established hypotheses on the formation mechanism of large earthquakes are based on the facts occurred near the epicenter area. The author suggests that the formation mechanism of large earthquakes is characterized by network features. Large earthquakes are considered as nodes of multi level networks. The occurrence of a large earthquake is related to various dynamic ( including astronomical ) factors. This network hypothesis of large earthquake formation can easily integrate most of known phenomena discovered during earthquake prediction.Moreover, it provides new enlightenment to the debate upon the question:“Can earthquakes be predicted?” If the network hypothesis is accepted, the answer could be: at least part of large earthquakes can be predicted.
Most of established hypotheses on the formation mechanism of large earthquakes are based on the facts occurred near the epicenter area. The author suggests that the formation mechanism of large earthquakes is characterized by network features. Large earthquakes are considered as nodes of multi level networks. The occurrence of a large earthquake is related to various dynamic ( including astronomical ) factors. This network hypothesis of large earthquake formation can easily integrate most of known phenomena discovered during earthquake prediction.Moreover, it provides new enlightenment to the debate upon the question:“Can earthquakes be predicted?” If the network hypothesis is accepted, the answer could be: at least part of large earthquakes can be predicted.
引文
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[17] 徐道一 复杂性科学 :2 1世纪的科学 [N] 科学时报 ,1999 10 2 3(3)
[18] 翁文波 预测论基础 [M] 北京 :石油工业出版社 ,1984 1 14 2
[19] 翁文波 翁文波学术论文选集 [C] 北京 :石油工业出版社 ,1994 1 5 0 0
[2 0 ] 翁文波 ,吕牛顿 ,张清 预测学 [M ] 北京 :石油工业出版社 ,1996 1 2 37
[2 ] 中国地震学会地震专业委员会 ,国际地震动态编辑部 关于地震预测研究的争论 (一 ) [J] 国际地震动态 ,1999(6 ) :19 38
[3 ] GELLERRJ,JACKSONDD ,KAGANYY ,etal.Earthquakescannotbepredicted[J] .Science,1997,2 75 :16 16 16 17
[4] XUDao yi,OUCHIT Spatiotemporalorderingofgreatearthquakes(M≥ 8)inAsiaduring 1934— 1970years[A] .ResearchReportofRCUSS[R] .KobeUniversity,1998,2 :15 9 170
[5 ] XUDao yi,OUCHIT Equidistantorderingofshallowearthquakes (M≥ 7 5 )inandaroundJapansince 1890 [A] .ResearchReportofRCUSS[R] .KobeUniversity,1998,2 :14 1 15 8.
[6 ] 徐道一 ,孙文鹏 ,仉宝聚 ,等 初论地质信息有序系列 [J] 地学前缘 ,1998,4(3) :13 2 1
[7] 门可佩 有序性分析与强震预测 [J] 国际地震动态 ,1997(5 ) :1 3
[8] 徐道一 新疆 7级大地震等距有序性初探 [J] 中央民族大学学报 (自然科学版 ) ,1997,6 (2 ) :15 0 15 3
[9] 徐道一 试论干支 6 0年“周期”与大地震等自然灾害的关系[A] 国家地震局地质研究所编 现今地球动力学研究及其应用 [C] 北京 :地震出版社 ,1994 5 49 6 0 2
[10 ] XUDao yi,OUCHIT Onthenetworkfeaturesoflargeearthquakeoccurrencesthatappearinthespatio temporaldistribution[A] .Pro grammeandAbstracts[C] TheSeismologicalSocietyofJapan ,1997,2 :A5 4
[11] CAPRAF Thetaoofphysics[M] 3rded Boston :Shambhala ,1991 2 86
[12 ] BURRIDGERO ,KNOPOFFL Modelandtheoreticalseismology[J] BullSeismSocAm ,196 7,5 7(3) :341 371
[13] MAINI 地震预测 :简要结论 [J] 国际地震动态 ,1999(7) :2 1 2 3
[14 ] 钱学森 ,于景元 ,戴汝为 一个科学新领域———开放的复杂巨系统及其方法论 [J] 自然杂志 ,1990 ,13(1) :1 10
[15 ] ANDERSONPW Theopeningtocomplexity[A] .ProcNatlAcdSciUSA[C] ,1995 ,92 :6 6 5 3 6 6 5 4
[16 ] 米歇尔沃尔德罗普 复杂———诞生于秩序与混沌边缘的科学 [M] 北京 :生活、读书、新知三联书店 ,1997 1 5 0 5
[17] 徐道一 复杂性科学 :2 1世纪的科学 [N] 科学时报 ,1999 10 2 3(3)
[18] 翁文波 预测论基础 [M] 北京 :石油工业出版社 ,1984 1 14 2
[19] 翁文波 翁文波学术论文选集 [C] 北京 :石油工业出版社 ,1994 1 5 0 0
[2 0 ] 翁文波 ,吕牛顿 ,张清 预测学 [M ] 北京 :石油工业出版社 ,1996 1 2 37
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