断裂地震地表断错危险性评价
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摘要
引入地震断错危险性概念 ,用概率表示发生断错的可能性大小 ,断错危险性涉及到地震危险性和断错发生与分布特点。断错危险性的表达式为 :P =P1×P2 ×P3,式中 ,P表示断错危险性 ;P1表示地震发生的危险性 ;P2 指不同震级条件下地表断错出现的概率 ;P3为断错量值分布概率。以中国和世界地表地震断错资料为基础 ,建立震级 -断错概率指数P2 和断错幅度及其分布概率指数 ,包括幅值及其分布、宽度和覆盖层厚度影响等指数P3,为地表断错危险性量化评估奠定了基础。
In this paper we introduce the concept of the risk of surface dislocation. The possibility of surface dislocation caused by earthquake is expressed here by probability. The risk of surface dislocation involves earthquake risk as well as the occurrence and distribution feature of surface dislocation. The risk of surface dislocation caused by earthquake can be expressed as (Jiang Pu et al ., 1998): P=P_1×P_2×P_3 where P is the risk of surface dislocation caused by earthquake, P_1 represents earthquake risk; P_2 is the probability of the occurrence of surface dislocation at different earthquake magnitudes; P_3 is the distribution probability of the amount of surface dislocation. The earthquake risk can be determined through conventional analysis methods applied in engineering-seismology or through seismo-geological investigation and the analysis of seismic activity. Based on the worldwide data of surface dislocations produced by earthquakes, two parameters for evaluating the risk of surface dislocation are derived. They are the probability index of earthquake magnitude-surface dislocation ( P _2) and the probability index of dislocation amplitude and its distribution ( P_3 ), which involves the amplitude, distribution and width of dislocation, as well as the effect of overburden thickness. According to the principle, method and the related probability indexes given in this paper, the risk of surface dislocation in a certain urban area or an engineering site can be quantitatively evaluated.
In this paper we introduce the concept of the risk of surface dislocation. The possibility of surface dislocation caused by earthquake is expressed here by probability. The risk of surface dislocation involves earthquake risk as well as the occurrence and distribution feature of surface dislocation. The risk of surface dislocation caused by earthquake can be expressed as (Jiang Pu et al ., 1998): P=P_1×P_2×P_3 where P is the risk of surface dislocation caused by earthquake, P_1 represents earthquake risk; P_2 is the probability of the occurrence of surface dislocation at different earthquake magnitudes; P_3 is the distribution probability of the amount of surface dislocation. The earthquake risk can be determined through conventional analysis methods applied in engineering-seismology or through seismo-geological investigation and the analysis of seismic activity. Based on the worldwide data of surface dislocations produced by earthquakes, two parameters for evaluating the risk of surface dislocation are derived. They are the probability index of earthquake magnitude-surface dislocation ( P _2) and the probability index of dislocation amplitude and its distribution ( P_3 ), which involves the amplitude, distribution and width of dislocation, as well as the effect of overburden thickness. According to the principle, method and the related probability indexes given in this paper, the risk of surface dislocation in a certain urban area or an engineering site can be quantitatively evaluated.
引文
①国家地震局地质研究所,1995,中国断层震害及其减灾对策(8507030202a)。
蒋溥,梁小华,1999,北京市地下断裂地震地表断错危险性评价,北京市区地下断裂对地面工程影响的研究(专题研究之三)。
北京勘察设计研究院,中国地震局地质研究所,水利部南京水利科学研究院,1999,北京市区地下断裂对地面工程影响的研究(专题研究之五),发震断裂上覆土层厚度对工程影响离心模型试验研究报告。
①同495页①。
①同496页②。
②同496页②。
邓起东.1992.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究〔A〕.见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(2).北京:地震出版社.
DENGQi dong.1992.Relationshipbetweenearthquakemagnitudeandparametersofsurfacerupturesassociatedwithhistoricalearthquakes〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeology,SSB (ed).ResearchonActiveFault(2).Seismologi calPress,Beijing(inChinese).
郝重涛,梁小华,陈国光.2000.龙门山断裂带地震断错危险性工程评价〔J〕.工程地质学报,8(Suppl):23—27.
HAOChong tao,LIANGXiao hua,CHENGuo guang.2000.Engineeringevaluationonearthquakerupturedanger ousnessofLongmenshanFault〔J〕.ChineseJournalofEngineeringGeology,8(Suppl):23—27(inChinese).
蒋溥,代丽思.1993.工程地震学概论〔M〕.北京:地震出版社.
JIANGPu,DAILi si.1993.AnIntroductiontoEngineeringSeismology〔M〕.SeismologicalPress,Beijing(inChi nese).
蒋溥,梁小华.1988.盆地体积变化与强震重复间隔〔A〕.见:国家地震局鄂尔多斯周缘活动断裂系课题组.鄂尔多斯周缘活动断裂系.北京:地震出版社.285—289.
JIANGPu,LIANGXiao hua.1988.Relationshipbetweenvariedvolumeofbasinandrecurrenceintervalofstrongearthquake〔A〕.In:TheResearchGroupon“ActiveFaultSystemaroundOrdosMassif”.ActiveFaultSystemaroundOrdosMassif.SeismologicalPress,Beijing.285—289(inChinese).
蒋溥,梁小华.1998.工程地震实践中若干问题〔J〕.工程地质学报,6(1):1—26.
JIANGPu,LIANGXiao hua.1998.Someproblemsandstudyresultsinengineeringearthquakepractice〔J〕.Chi neseJournalofEngineeringGeology,6(1):1—26(inChinese).
蒋溥,于克涛,韩竹君.1993.震害预测和减灾对策〔A〕.见:高文学,马瑾主编.首都圈地震地质环境与地震灾害.北京:地震出版社.317—365.
JIANGPu,YUKe tao,HANZhu jun.1993.Earthquakedisasterpredictionandstrategyofdisasterreduction〔A〕.In:GAOWen xue,MAJin(eds).SeismoGeologicalBackgroundandEarthquakeHazardsinBeijingArea.SeismologicalPress,Beijing.317—365(inChinese).
AcharyaHK .1979.Regionalvariationsintherupturelength magnituderelationshipsandtheirdynamicsignificance〔J〕.BullSeismolSocAm,69:2063—2084.
AmbraseysNN .1969.Maximumintensityofgroundmovementscausedbyfaulting〔A〕.WorldConferenceEarth quakeEng.,14 thSantiago,Chile,Jan.13—18,1969,Proce.,1(A2):154—171.
BonilaMG .1967.HistoricsurfacefaultingincontinentalUnitedStatesandadjacentpartsofMexico〔R〕.Open fileReport,USGS ,Washington,DC ,alsoAtomicEnergyCommissionReportTIP 24124.
JiangPu,DaiLi si.1982.Theeffectofearthquake inducedgroundfailureandconsiderationsforengineeringandmi crozonationinChina〔A〕.Proc.3 rdIMMC .June28Jnly11982,UniversityofWashington,Seattle.
NowrooziAA .1985.EmpiricalrelationsbetweenmagnitudesandfaultparametersforearthquakesinIran〔J〕.BullSeismolSocAm,75:1327—1338.
蒋溥,梁小华,1999,北京市地下断裂地震地表断错危险性评价,北京市区地下断裂对地面工程影响的研究(专题研究之三)。
北京勘察设计研究院,中国地震局地质研究所,水利部南京水利科学研究院,1999,北京市区地下断裂对地面工程影响的研究(专题研究之五),发震断裂上覆土层厚度对工程影响离心模型试验研究报告。
①同495页①。
①同496页②。
②同496页②。
邓起东.1992.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究〔A〕.见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(2).北京:地震出版社.
DENGQi dong.1992.Relationshipbetweenearthquakemagnitudeandparametersofsurfacerupturesassociatedwithhistoricalearthquakes〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeology,SSB (ed).ResearchonActiveFault(2).Seismologi calPress,Beijing(inChinese).
郝重涛,梁小华,陈国光.2000.龙门山断裂带地震断错危险性工程评价〔J〕.工程地质学报,8(Suppl):23—27.
HAOChong tao,LIANGXiao hua,CHENGuo guang.2000.Engineeringevaluationonearthquakerupturedanger ousnessofLongmenshanFault〔J〕.ChineseJournalofEngineeringGeology,8(Suppl):23—27(inChinese).
蒋溥,代丽思.1993.工程地震学概论〔M〕.北京:地震出版社.
JIANGPu,DAILi si.1993.AnIntroductiontoEngineeringSeismology〔M〕.SeismologicalPress,Beijing(inChi nese).
蒋溥,梁小华.1988.盆地体积变化与强震重复间隔〔A〕.见:国家地震局鄂尔多斯周缘活动断裂系课题组.鄂尔多斯周缘活动断裂系.北京:地震出版社.285—289.
JIANGPu,LIANGXiao hua.1988.Relationshipbetweenvariedvolumeofbasinandrecurrenceintervalofstrongearthquake〔A〕.In:TheResearchGroupon“ActiveFaultSystemaroundOrdosMassif”.ActiveFaultSystemaroundOrdosMassif.SeismologicalPress,Beijing.285—289(inChinese).
蒋溥,梁小华.1998.工程地震实践中若干问题〔J〕.工程地质学报,6(1):1—26.
JIANGPu,LIANGXiao hua.1998.Someproblemsandstudyresultsinengineeringearthquakepractice〔J〕.Chi neseJournalofEngineeringGeology,6(1):1—26(inChinese).
蒋溥,于克涛,韩竹君.1993.震害预测和减灾对策〔A〕.见:高文学,马瑾主编.首都圈地震地质环境与地震灾害.北京:地震出版社.317—365.
JIANGPu,YUKe tao,HANZhu jun.1993.Earthquakedisasterpredictionandstrategyofdisasterreduction〔A〕.In:GAOWen xue,MAJin(eds).SeismoGeologicalBackgroundandEarthquakeHazardsinBeijingArea.SeismologicalPress,Beijing.317—365(inChinese).
AcharyaHK .1979.Regionalvariationsintherupturelength magnituderelationshipsandtheirdynamicsignificance〔J〕.BullSeismolSocAm,69:2063—2084.
AmbraseysNN .1969.Maximumintensityofgroundmovementscausedbyfaulting〔A〕.WorldConferenceEarth quakeEng.,14 thSantiago,Chile,Jan.13—18,1969,Proce.,1(A2):154—171.
BonilaMG .1967.HistoricsurfacefaultingincontinentalUnitedStatesandadjacentpartsofMexico〔R〕.Open fileReport,USGS ,Washington,DC ,alsoAtomicEnergyCommissionReportTIP 24124.
JiangPu,DaiLi si.1982.Theeffectofearthquake inducedgroundfailureandconsiderationsforengineeringandmi crozonationinChina〔A〕.Proc.3 rdIMMC .June28Jnly11982,UniversityofWashington,Seattle.
NowrooziAA .1985.EmpiricalrelationsbetweenmagnitudesandfaultparametersforearthquakesinIran〔J〕.BullSeismolSocAm,75:1327—1338.
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