CN中期地震预报方法及其在华北地区的应用检验
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摘要
按两种分区和两种对象划分方式在华北地区进了ＴＩＰ中期地震预报方法中ＣＮ算法的应用检验。结果表明，被检验的中强地震中有８０％震前出现了ＴＩＰ，ＴＩＰ持续时间最长３年多，最短０．７个月，平均为１４～１６个月左右。ＴＩＰ警戒时段占总研究时间的３２％，综合计算报准率Ｒ值为０．５左右。表明该算法不失为一种较好的中期地震预报方法，在华北地区有实用意义。最后对方法中某些有待改进的问题进行了简单讨论。
By two kinds of zonings and two kinds of targets division, the application of CN algorism of TIP mid-term earthquake prediction method is checked in North China Region. The result indicates that 80 percent of the checked moderately strong earthquakes showed TIP, the longest duration time of TIP is more than three years, the shortest one is 0. 7 month, its average is about 14-16 months. The warning time intervals of TIP made up 32 percent of the total studied time, the accurate prediction rate R value of comprehensive calculation is about 0. 5. It is indicated that the method can yet be regarded as a better mid-term earthquake prediction method, Which is significant in North China Region. Finally, some respects which have yet to be proved of the method are briefly discussed.
By two kinds of zonings and two kinds of targets division, the application of CN algorism of TIP mid-term earthquake prediction method is checked in North China Region. The result indicates that 80 percent of the checked moderately strong earthquakes showed TIP, the longest duration time of TIP is more than three years, the shortest one is 0. 7 month, its average is about 14-16 months. The warning time intervals of TIP made up 32 percent of the total studied time, the accurate prediction rate R value of comprehensive calculation is about 0. 5. It is indicated that the method can yet be regarded as a better mid-term earthquake prediction method, Which is significant in North China Region. Finally, some respects which have yet to be proved of the method are briefly discussed.
引文
1I．M．Rotwain．中期地震预报方法（CN算法）．非浅性科学在地震预报中的应用，北京：地震出版社，1992．161—1692陈，等译．中期地震预报一模型、算法及全球试验，北京：地震出版社，1991．95—1223I．M．Rotwalnlntermediate—termEarthquakePrediction（AlgorithmCN），WorkshoponNon—linearDynarn－icsandEarthquakePrediction1991．4I．M．RotwainEarthquakeFlowWorkshoponNon—LinearDynamicsandEarthguakePrrePrdictlon，1991．5G．Costa，G．F．PanzaI．M．Rotwain．意大利前兆地震活动性图象的稳定性及中期地震预报的可能性，非浅性科学在地震预报中的应用，北京：地震出版社，1992．170—1786魏光兴，刁守中，周翠英．郯庐断裂带地震活动性研究。北京：地震出版社，1993．123
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