中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较
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摘要
目前确定地震活动性参数的方法有2种,即潜在震源区划分法和格点空间光滑法。本文针对格点空间光滑法,重点介绍了高斯空间光滑法及其改进后的方法,并对比分析了这些方法的优缺点及适用性;然后以华中为研究区,分别采用高斯空间光滑法和潜在震源区法建立地震活动性模型计算地震年平均发生率,并利用概率地震危险性分析方法计算地震危险性,对比两种方法所得区划结果的差异并分析了引起差异的原因。结果表明:空间光滑法适用于中强地震活动区地震危险性或由背景地震引起的地震危险性的计算;潜在震源区划分法适用于考虑明确的发震构造的地震危险性。将2种方法相结合,综合考虑地震和已知构造信息是判断中强地震活动区地震危险性的可行方法。
Two kinds of methods for the determination of seismic parameters are presented in this paper,i.e.seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method.The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail,and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods are made.Then we take the central China as the study region,and use the Gaussian smoothing method and seismic source zoning method to build the seismic model for the calculation of annual seismic activity rate,calculate the seismic risk from the models to get the ground motion acceleration zoning map.The differences between the maps from the models are discussed and the causes are investigated.The results show that the spatially smoothing method is suitable for the seismic hazard estimate of moderate strong seismicity regions or the seismic hazard caused by background seismicity,and the seismic source zoning method is suitable for the estimate of seismic hazard caused by determined seismotectonics.The combination the two methods and the consideration of seismicity and known seismotectonics make up a feasible method to estimate the seismic hazard of moderate strong seismicity region.
Two kinds of methods for the determination of seismic parameters are presented in this paper,i.e.seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method.The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail,and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods are made.Then we take the central China as the study region,and use the Gaussian smoothing method and seismic source zoning method to build the seismic model for the calculation of annual seismic activity rate,calculate the seismic risk from the models to get the ground motion acceleration zoning map.The differences between the maps from the models are discussed and the causes are investigated.The results show that the spatially smoothing method is suitable for the seismic hazard estimate of moderate strong seismicity regions or the seismic hazard caused by background seismicity,and the seismic source zoning method is suitable for the estimate of seismic hazard caused by determined seismotectonics.The combination the two methods and the consideration of seismicity and known seismotectonics make up a feasible method to estimate the seismic hazard of moderate strong seismicity region.
引文
高孟潭,1988,关于地震年平均发生率问题的探讨,国际地震动态,1,1～5。
高孟潭、肖和平、燕为民等,2008,中强地震活动地区地震区划重要性及关键技术进展,震灾防御技术,3(1),1～7。
国家质检总局,2001,中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306-2001),北京:中国标准出版社。
黄玮琼、李文香、曹学峰,1994,中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一——以华北地区为例,地震学报,16(3),273～280。
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胥广银,2003,潜在震源三维空间模型及其在地震危险性概率分析中的应用研究,博士论文,北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所。
胥广银、高孟潭,1996,潜在震源区内部非均匀特征研究,中国地震,12(3),294～299。
鄢家全、贾素娟,1996,我国东北和华北地区中强地震潜在震源区的划分原则与方法,中国地震,12(2),173～194。
张力方、吕悦军、彭艳菊等,2008,用空间光滑方法评估弱地震活动区的地震活动性参数,震灾防御技术,3(1),27～36。
Beauval C,Scotti O,Bonilla E,2006,The role of seismicity models in probabilistic seismic hazard estimation:comparison of azoning and a smoothing approach,Geophys J I,65(2),584～595.
Cao T Q,Petersen M D,Reichle M J,1996,Seismic hazard estimate from background seismicity in Southern California,Bull Seism Soc A,86(5),1372～1381.
Cornell C A,1968,Engineering seismic risk analysis,Bull Seism Soc A,58,1583～1606.
Frankel A,1995,Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States,Seism Res Lett,6(4),8～12.
Herrmann R B,1977,Recurrence relations,Earthquake Notes,48,47～49.
Kagan Y Y,Knopoff L,1980,Spatial distribution of earthquakes:the two point correlation function,Geophys J R Astr Soc,62,303～320.
Lapajne J K,Motnikar B S,Zabukovec B,et al,1997,Spatially smoothed seismicity modeling of seismic hazard in Slovenia,JSeism,1,73～85.
Lapajne J K,Motnikar B S,Zupancic P,2003,Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology for distributed seismicity,BullSeism Soc A,93(6),2502～2515.
Woo G,1996,Kernel estimation methods for seismic hazard area source modeling,Bull Seism Soc A,86(2),353～362.
高孟潭、肖和平、燕为民等,2008,中强地震活动地区地震区划重要性及关键技术进展,震灾防御技术,3(1),1～7。
国家质检总局,2001,中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306-2001),北京:中国标准出版社。
黄玮琼、李文香、曹学峰,1994,中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一——以华北地区为例,地震学报,16(3),273～280。
沈得秀,2007,华南地区中强地震发震构造的判别及其工程应用研究,硕士论文,北京:中国地震局地质研究所。
胥广银,2003,潜在震源三维空间模型及其在地震危险性概率分析中的应用研究,博士论文,北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所。
胥广银、高孟潭,1996,潜在震源区内部非均匀特征研究,中国地震,12(3),294～299。
鄢家全、贾素娟,1996,我国东北和华北地区中强地震潜在震源区的划分原则与方法,中国地震,12(2),173～194。
张力方、吕悦军、彭艳菊等,2008,用空间光滑方法评估弱地震活动区的地震活动性参数,震灾防御技术,3(1),27～36。
Beauval C,Scotti O,Bonilla E,2006,The role of seismicity models in probabilistic seismic hazard estimation:comparison of azoning and a smoothing approach,Geophys J I,65(2),584～595.
Cao T Q,Petersen M D,Reichle M J,1996,Seismic hazard estimate from background seismicity in Southern California,Bull Seism Soc A,86(5),1372～1381.
Cornell C A,1968,Engineering seismic risk analysis,Bull Seism Soc A,58,1583～1606.
Frankel A,1995,Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States,Seism Res Lett,6(4),8～12.
Herrmann R B,1977,Recurrence relations,Earthquake Notes,48,47～49.
Kagan Y Y,Knopoff L,1980,Spatial distribution of earthquakes:the two point correlation function,Geophys J R Astr Soc,62,303～320.
Lapajne J K,Motnikar B S,Zabukovec B,et al,1997,Spatially smoothed seismicity modeling of seismic hazard in Slovenia,JSeism,1,73～85.
Lapajne J K,Motnikar B S,Zupancic P,2003,Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology for distributed seismicity,BullSeism Soc A,93(6),2502～2515.
Woo G,1996,Kernel estimation methods for seismic hazard area source modeling,Bull Seism Soc A,86(2),353～362.
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