汶川8.0级地震HRT波地震短临波动前兆及HRT波地震短临预测方法——关于实现强震短临预测可能性的讨论
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摘要
2004年初开始在川滇地区布设的4个地电台,使用所研制的抗干扰性能极强的PS-100地电测量系统和技术,捕捉地震短临前兆.至2008汶川8.0级地震前,唯一仍在工作的红格台记录到了汶川地震的HRT波短临前兆.根据潮汐力谐振共振波(简称为HRT波)短临地震预测模型,在汶川8.0级地震前5月11日夜至12日凌晨5时分析得到了大震即将来临的结果.所记前兆同以前各台对其他强震所记的HRT波震例的规律有很强的一致性.所测物理量(地电阻率与地电流)仅在强震前才出现潮汐力的周期,而其振幅在震前数月至几天明显增大.通过研究所记的实例表明,它们通常与几天后所发生的地震有因果关系,这种波的到时与台站的震中距成正比;由这种波动所测的断层固有周期T0与断层长度(震级)有关,对6~9级地震,T0的范围为1~6h.有证据表明,它们是来自即将发生地震的震源区.这种波动周期较长,在地壳中,可传播数百乃至数千公里.对发生在地壳中的浅源大震,地壳固体在其孔、裂隙中通常含有易于流动的(导电的)流体(溶液),这种流体在地震孕育过程中因受力(孔隙压力)先于断层位移(地震)产生的(微小)扰动(波动),对所观测的HRT波提供了一种可能的解释.从2004年在川滇地区增设4个PS-100HRT波台站,试图捕捉强震短临前兆,到2008年发生汶川8.0级地震(距离新增的MN台?=288km;距离记录到HRT波短临异常的HG台?=465km;距离青川640km)前,HG台捕捉到汶川8.0级地震的HRT短临前兆的全过程,表明地震是有前兆的,地震是可以预测、预报的,在可预见的将来实现地震的短临预报是可行的.
引文
1)中国计量科学研究院具有法定计量检定机构计量授权证书:(国)法计(2002)01001号及中国实验室国家认可委员会(CNAL)认可证书:N0.L0502.1999年中国计量科学研究院代表中国在国际计量局(BIPM)签署了“国家测量标准及国家计量科学研究院出具的校准和测量证书互相承认协议”
2)证书编号:DCcm2004-0012.此证书所列校准和测试结果系中国计量科学研究院(NIM)直流及低频(1MHz以下)电磁计量领域校准和测试能力(CMC)的一个项目,已列入互相承认协议附录C,可在BIPM网址:http://kcdb.bipm.fr/BIPM-KCDB/AppendixC/search.asp?MET=EM查询
1Sibson R H.Condition for fault-valve behavior.In:Knipe R J,Rutter E H,eds.Deformation Mechanisms,Rheology and Tectonics.London:Geological Society,1990.15—28
2Park S K,Johnston T R,Morgan F D,et al.Electromagnetic precursors to earthquakes in the ULF band:a review of observations and mechanisms.Rev Geophys,1993,31(2):117—132
3Byerlee J.Model for episodic of high-pressure water in fault zones before earthquakes.Geology,1993,21:303—306
4Nur A.The study of relations between deformation and forces in the Earth.Proceedings of the Third Congress of the International Society for Rock Mechanics,Theme2:Tectonophysics.Denver,1974.243—317
5Madden T R.Electrical measurement as stress-strain monitors.Proceedings of ConferenceⅦ,Stress and Strain Measurements Re-lated to Earthquake Prediction.USGS Open File Rep,1978.301—374
6Brace W F,Walsh J B,Frangos W F.Permeability of granite under high pressure.J Geophys Res,1968,73(6):2225—2236
7Morrow C,Brace W F.Electrical resistivity changes in tuffs due to stress.J Geophys Res,1981,86:2929—2934
8Wang C Y.Electrical resistivity changes in during frictional sliding and fracture.Pure Appl Geophys,1978,116(4-5):717—731
9Fitterman D V.Theory of electrokinetic-magnetic anomalies in a faulted half space.J Geophys Res,1979,84:6031—6040
10Fenoglio M A,Johston M J S,Byelee J D.Magnetic and electric fields associated with changes in high pore pressure in fault sources:application to the Lama Prieta ULF emissions.J Geophys Res,1995,100(B7):12951—12958
11Corwin R F,Morrison H F.Self-potential variations preceding earthquakes in Central California.Geophys Res Lett,1977,4:171—174
12Mizutani H.Electrokinetic phenomena associated with earthquakes.Geophys Res Lett,1976,3(7):365—368
13Sobolev G A.Application of electric method to the tentative short-term forecast of Kamchatka earthquake.Pure Appl Geophys,1975,113:229—235
14Varotsos P,Alexpooulo K.Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the Earth preceding earthquakes.Tectonophys-ics,1984,110:73—98
15黄清华,刘涛.新岛台地电场的潮汐响应与地震.地球物理学报,2006,46(6):1745—1754
16方崇智,萧德云.过程辩识.北京:清华大学出版社,1998.1—562
17Qian F Y,Zhao Y L,Xu T C,et al.A model of an impending-earthquake precursor of geoelectricity triggered by tidal forces.Phys Earth Planet Int,1990,62:284—297
18赵玉林,赵璧如,钱卫,等.印尼Mw9.0级地震的短临地电波(声波:潮汐力谐振共振波,HRT波)波动前兆—HRT波法进行短临地震准确预测可能性的探讨.国际地震动态,2006,(8):6—21
19耶格J C,库克N G W.岩石力学基础.中国科学院工程力学研究所,译.北京:科学出版社,1979.1—690
20赵玉林,钱复业,许同春.岩土层受力时电阻率变化与应变的关系.地震学报,1990,12(1):87—93
21Zhao Y L,Qian F Y,Stopinskiw W.In situ experiments and relationship between the electrical resistivity changes and the strain.Acta Geophys Polon,1990,38(3):229—243
22Morse P M,Ingard K U.Theoretical Acoustics.New York:McGraw Hill,1968
23赵璧如,赵健,张洪魁,等.PS100型IP到端可控源高精度大地电测仪—CDMA技术首次在地电阻率测量中的应用.地球物理进展,2006,21(2):675—682
24Zhang H K,Zhao B R,Zhao Y L,et al.PS100anti-interference electrical observation system and its application to earthquake predic-tion study.Phys Chem Earth,2006,31:172—181
25郭增建,秦保燕,徐文耀,等.震源孕育模式的初步探讨.地球物理学报,1973,16:43—48
26张勇,冯万鹏,许力生,等.2008年汶川大地震的时空破裂过程.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2008,38(10):1186—1194
27赵玉林,钱复业.唐山7.8级强震前震中周围形变电阻率的下降异常.地球物理学报,1978,21(3):181—190
28Zhao Y L,Qian F Y.Geoelectric precursors to strong earthquakes in China.Tectonophysics,1994,233:99—113
29赵玉林,钱复业,卢军.电测量在中国地震预报中的应用.地震地质,2001,23(2):277—284
30钱复业,赵玉林,于谋明,等.地震前地电阻率异常变化.中国科学B辑,1982,(9):831—839
31Gu G X.On the strategy of earthquake prediction.In:Claude J A,Coulomb J,eds.Source Mechanism and Earthquake Prediction:National Center for Scientific Research,Paris,1980.99—107
32Qian F Y,Zhao Y L,Lu J.Georesistivity precursors to the Tangshan earthquake of1976.Anneli di Geofisica,1997,XL(2):251—260
33钱复业,赵玉林.地电阻率季节干扰变化分析.地震学报,1987,9(3):289—302
34Lu J,Qian F Y,Zhao Y L.Sensitivity analysis of the Schlumberger Monitoring array:application to changes of resistivity prior to the1976earthquake in Tangshan,China.Tectonophysics,1999,238:397—405
35赵玉林,钱复业.原地电阻率变化的实验.地震学报,1983,5(2):217—284
36钱复业,赵玉林,黄燕妮.地电阻率各向异常参量计算法及地震前兆实例.地震学报,1996,18(4):480—488
37赵玉林,钱复业.唐山地震前后形变电阻率的脉冲.地球物理学报,1979,22(1):25—31
38赵玉林,钱复业.唐山地震前后自然电场的周期变化.地震学报,1982,4(3):264—272
39Zhao Y L,Li Z N,Qian F Y,et al.Synthetic criterion for judging the transition geoelectric precursors from medium-term stage to short-term/imminent stage.J Earthq Predict Res,1996,5(4):594—601
40赵玉林,钱复业.地电场短临预报方法研究.地震,2005,(2):33—40
41Zhao Y L,Zhao B R,Qian F Y.Electrical Streaming Potential Precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China.Anneli di Geofisica,1997,XL(2):241—250
42Qian F Y,Zhao Y L,Teisseyre R.Periodic anomalies of the telluric electric field before the Tangshan earthquake and a model of elec-trokinetic precursor triggered by tidal forces.Acta Geophys Polon,1990,38(3):245—256
43钱复业,赵玉林,刘捷,等.唐山7.8级地震地电阻率临震功率谱异常.地震,1990,(3):33—38
44钱复业,赵玉林.地电短临前兆产生机理及一种新的短临预报方法(谐振预报法).华北地震科学,1996,14(3):1—9
45张洪魁.地电幕式变化及其与地震的关系.石油地球物理勘探,2004,39(增刊):90—95
46钱复业,赵玉林.关于“川滇地区1-3年可能发生特大地震的地电学方法监测应急措施方案”的建议(2003年12月).国际地震动态,2008,8:1—12
47钱复业,赵玉林,陈英方,主编.地震预测—地电方法论文集.福州:福建科学技术出版社,1985.1—321
48钱复业,卢振业,丁鉴海,等.电磁学分析预报方法.北京:地震出版社,1998.1—227
2)证书编号:DCcm2004-0012.此证书所列校准和测试结果系中国计量科学研究院(NIM)直流及低频(1MHz以下)电磁计量领域校准和测试能力(CMC)的一个项目,已列入互相承认协议附录C,可在BIPM网址:http://kcdb.bipm.fr/BIPM-KCDB/AppendixC/search.asp?MET=EM查询
1Sibson R H.Condition for fault-valve behavior.In:Knipe R J,Rutter E H,eds.Deformation Mechanisms,Rheology and Tectonics.London:Geological Society,1990.15—28
2Park S K,Johnston T R,Morgan F D,et al.Electromagnetic precursors to earthquakes in the ULF band:a review of observations and mechanisms.Rev Geophys,1993,31(2):117—132
3Byerlee J.Model for episodic of high-pressure water in fault zones before earthquakes.Geology,1993,21:303—306
4Nur A.The study of relations between deformation and forces in the Earth.Proceedings of the Third Congress of the International Society for Rock Mechanics,Theme2:Tectonophysics.Denver,1974.243—317
5Madden T R.Electrical measurement as stress-strain monitors.Proceedings of ConferenceⅦ,Stress and Strain Measurements Re-lated to Earthquake Prediction.USGS Open File Rep,1978.301—374
6Brace W F,Walsh J B,Frangos W F.Permeability of granite under high pressure.J Geophys Res,1968,73(6):2225—2236
7Morrow C,Brace W F.Electrical resistivity changes in tuffs due to stress.J Geophys Res,1981,86:2929—2934
8Wang C Y.Electrical resistivity changes in during frictional sliding and fracture.Pure Appl Geophys,1978,116(4-5):717—731
9Fitterman D V.Theory of electrokinetic-magnetic anomalies in a faulted half space.J Geophys Res,1979,84:6031—6040
10Fenoglio M A,Johston M J S,Byelee J D.Magnetic and electric fields associated with changes in high pore pressure in fault sources:application to the Lama Prieta ULF emissions.J Geophys Res,1995,100(B7):12951—12958
11Corwin R F,Morrison H F.Self-potential variations preceding earthquakes in Central California.Geophys Res Lett,1977,4:171—174
12Mizutani H.Electrokinetic phenomena associated with earthquakes.Geophys Res Lett,1976,3(7):365—368
13Sobolev G A.Application of electric method to the tentative short-term forecast of Kamchatka earthquake.Pure Appl Geophys,1975,113:229—235
14Varotsos P,Alexpooulo K.Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the Earth preceding earthquakes.Tectonophys-ics,1984,110:73—98
15黄清华,刘涛.新岛台地电场的潮汐响应与地震.地球物理学报,2006,46(6):1745—1754
16方崇智,萧德云.过程辩识.北京:清华大学出版社,1998.1—562
17Qian F Y,Zhao Y L,Xu T C,et al.A model of an impending-earthquake precursor of geoelectricity triggered by tidal forces.Phys Earth Planet Int,1990,62:284—297
18赵玉林,赵璧如,钱卫,等.印尼Mw9.0级地震的短临地电波(声波:潮汐力谐振共振波,HRT波)波动前兆—HRT波法进行短临地震准确预测可能性的探讨.国际地震动态,2006,(8):6—21
19耶格J C,库克N G W.岩石力学基础.中国科学院工程力学研究所,译.北京:科学出版社,1979.1—690
20赵玉林,钱复业,许同春.岩土层受力时电阻率变化与应变的关系.地震学报,1990,12(1):87—93
21Zhao Y L,Qian F Y,Stopinskiw W.In situ experiments and relationship between the electrical resistivity changes and the strain.Acta Geophys Polon,1990,38(3):229—243
22Morse P M,Ingard K U.Theoretical Acoustics.New York:McGraw Hill,1968
23赵璧如,赵健,张洪魁,等.PS100型IP到端可控源高精度大地电测仪—CDMA技术首次在地电阻率测量中的应用.地球物理进展,2006,21(2):675—682
24Zhang H K,Zhao B R,Zhao Y L,et al.PS100anti-interference electrical observation system and its application to earthquake predic-tion study.Phys Chem Earth,2006,31:172—181
25郭增建,秦保燕,徐文耀,等.震源孕育模式的初步探讨.地球物理学报,1973,16:43—48
26张勇,冯万鹏,许力生,等.2008年汶川大地震的时空破裂过程.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2008,38(10):1186—1194
27赵玉林,钱复业.唐山7.8级强震前震中周围形变电阻率的下降异常.地球物理学报,1978,21(3):181—190
28Zhao Y L,Qian F Y.Geoelectric precursors to strong earthquakes in China.Tectonophysics,1994,233:99—113
29赵玉林,钱复业,卢军.电测量在中国地震预报中的应用.地震地质,2001,23(2):277—284
30钱复业,赵玉林,于谋明,等.地震前地电阻率异常变化.中国科学B辑,1982,(9):831—839
31Gu G X.On the strategy of earthquake prediction.In:Claude J A,Coulomb J,eds.Source Mechanism and Earthquake Prediction:National Center for Scientific Research,Paris,1980.99—107
32Qian F Y,Zhao Y L,Lu J.Georesistivity precursors to the Tangshan earthquake of1976.Anneli di Geofisica,1997,XL(2):251—260
33钱复业,赵玉林.地电阻率季节干扰变化分析.地震学报,1987,9(3):289—302
34Lu J,Qian F Y,Zhao Y L.Sensitivity analysis of the Schlumberger Monitoring array:application to changes of resistivity prior to the1976earthquake in Tangshan,China.Tectonophysics,1999,238:397—405
35赵玉林,钱复业.原地电阻率变化的实验.地震学报,1983,5(2):217—284
36钱复业,赵玉林,黄燕妮.地电阻率各向异常参量计算法及地震前兆实例.地震学报,1996,18(4):480—488
37赵玉林,钱复业.唐山地震前后形变电阻率的脉冲.地球物理学报,1979,22(1):25—31
38赵玉林,钱复业.唐山地震前后自然电场的周期变化.地震学报,1982,4(3):264—272
39Zhao Y L,Li Z N,Qian F Y,et al.Synthetic criterion for judging the transition geoelectric precursors from medium-term stage to short-term/imminent stage.J Earthq Predict Res,1996,5(4):594—601
40赵玉林,钱复业.地电场短临预报方法研究.地震,2005,(2):33—40
41Zhao Y L,Zhao B R,Qian F Y.Electrical Streaming Potential Precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China.Anneli di Geofisica,1997,XL(2):241—250
42Qian F Y,Zhao Y L,Teisseyre R.Periodic anomalies of the telluric electric field before the Tangshan earthquake and a model of elec-trokinetic precursor triggered by tidal forces.Acta Geophys Polon,1990,38(3):245—256
43钱复业,赵玉林,刘捷,等.唐山7.8级地震地电阻率临震功率谱异常.地震,1990,(3):33—38
44钱复业,赵玉林.地电短临前兆产生机理及一种新的短临预报方法(谐振预报法).华北地震科学,1996,14(3):1—9
45张洪魁.地电幕式变化及其与地震的关系.石油地球物理勘探,2004,39(增刊):90—95
46钱复业,赵玉林.关于“川滇地区1-3年可能发生特大地震的地电学方法监测应急措施方案”的建议(2003年12月).国际地震动态,2008,8:1—12
47钱复业,赵玉林,陈英方,主编.地震预测—地电方法论文集.福州:福建科学技术出版社,1985.1—321
48钱复业,卢振业,丁鉴海,等.电磁学分析预报方法.北京:地震出版社,1998.1—227
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