东亚南北地震带大震活动性研究
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摘要
根据中国南北地震带与青藏—印尼“歹”字型构造带在成因上的联系,提出东亚南北地震带的观点,认为该地震带包含蒙古、中国西部、缅甸和印尼苏门答腊地区。研究了该带大地震活动的同步性、主体活动区的有序转移、大地震之间的多次相关迁移与重复等特征,并划分出了该带的5个大震活跃幕1887~1912年、1913~1937年、1938~1957年、1958~1976年、1977~2005年。苏门答腊2004年12月26日8.7级和2005年3月29日8.5级巨震标志着该地震带最近一次以主体活动区南移到苏门答腊为特征的活跃时段即将结束。尽管未来一、两年内地震带的中部存在发生7级地震的有利时段,但结合强震图像异常指标反映的孕震状况分析,未来7级地震危险区尚不明朗。
On the basis of the relation between the causes of formation of China SN seismic belt and Qinghai-Tibet-Indonesia dai-tectonic belt, we put forward the viewpoint of East Asia SN seismic belt, and think it is composed of Mongolia, West China, Burma and the Sumatra area of Indonesia. Through studying the synchronism of great earthquake activities, ordered migration of main active areas, lots of relative migration and recurrence of great earthquakes on East Asia SN seismic belt, we divide the great earthquake activities on the belt into five episodes: 1887-1912, 1913-1937, 1938-1957, 1958-1976 and 1977-2005. The occurrence of 2004 Sumatra M8.7 (Dec. 26, 2004) and M8.5 (Mar. 29, 2005) earthquakes indicates that the latest active period characterized by the main active area migrating toward south to Sumatra is about to end on the belt. In following one or two years it is possible to occur earthquakes with magnitude 7 in the middle part of the belt, but according to the analysis of seismogenic situation reflected by strong earthquake image anomaly index, it is thought that the risk regions of M7 earthquakes is still unclear.
On the basis of the relation between the causes of formation of China SN seismic belt and Qinghai-Tibet-Indonesia dai-tectonic belt, we put forward the viewpoint of East Asia SN seismic belt, and think it is composed of Mongolia, West China, Burma and the Sumatra area of Indonesia. Through studying the synchronism of great earthquake activities, ordered migration of main active areas, lots of relative migration and recurrence of great earthquakes on East Asia SN seismic belt, we divide the great earthquake activities on the belt into five episodes: 1887-1912, 1913-1937, 1938-1957, 1958-1976 and 1977-2005. The occurrence of 2004 Sumatra M8.7 (Dec. 26, 2004) and M8.5 (Mar. 29, 2005) earthquakes indicates that the latest active period characterized by the main active area migrating toward south to Sumatra is about to end on the belt. In following one or two years it is possible to occur earthquakes with magnitude 7 in the middle part of the belt, but according to the analysis of seismogenic situation reflected by strong earthquake image anomaly index, it is thought that the risk regions of M7 earthquakes is still unclear.
引文
薄万举,郭良迁,杨国华,等.2006.印度洋8.7级特大地震后川滇地区地震活动趋势判定[J].地震研究,29(1):1-6.
李四光.1973.地质力学概论[M].北京:科学出版社.
黄圣睦,董瑞英.2006.2005年10月8日巴基斯坦曼塞赫拉7.8级地震对中国大陆大震趋势影响的初步研究[J].四川地震,(2):7-12.
黄圣睦,董瑞英.1997.强震活动图像特征与地震预报[M].成都:成都地图出版社.
王绍晋,秦嘉政,关蕾,等.2003.云南强震活动的多层次力源分析[J].地震研究,26(2):142-149.
张永久,彭立国,黄圣睦,等.2005.苏门答腊岛8.7级地震对我国南北带地震形势的影响[J].四川地震,(2):23-28.
李四光.1973.地质力学概论[M].北京:科学出版社.
黄圣睦,董瑞英.2006.2005年10月8日巴基斯坦曼塞赫拉7.8级地震对中国大陆大震趋势影响的初步研究[J].四川地震,(2):7-12.
黄圣睦,董瑞英.1997.强震活动图像特征与地震预报[M].成都:成都地图出版社.
王绍晋,秦嘉政,关蕾,等.2003.云南强震活动的多层次力源分析[J].地震研究,26(2):142-149.
张永久,彭立国,黄圣睦,等.2005.苏门答腊岛8.7级地震对我国南北带地震形势的影响[J].四川地震,(2):23-28.
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