地质灾害监测预警系统研究与应用
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摘要
地质灾害监测预警是提升主动应对地质灾害能力的重要手段。文章分析了第一代、第二代地质灾害预警模型主要特征,建立了基于多元线性回归的地质灾害预警模型,并将模型与地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)叠加,实现了气象雨量信息动态可视化方法。以此为基础,采用GIS、数据库及网络等技术研发了地质灾害监测预警系统,并以安徽省为背景进行示范应用。结果表明该技术方法可行,系统具备一定的可靠性,能为地质灾害减灾防灾决策提供一定的技术支撑。
Geo-hazards monitoring and early warning is an important means to enhance the ability to actively respond to geo-hazards. In this paper, the main characteristics of the first and second generation geo-hazards early warning models are analyzed, a geo-hazards early warning model based on multivariable linear regression is established, and the model is superimposed with geographic information system(GIS) to achieve a dynamic visualization method of meteorological precipitation information. On this basis, a geo-hazards monitoring and early warning system is developed by using GIS, database, network and other technologies, and the demonstration applications are carried out in Anhui Province. The results show that this method is feasible, and the system has certain reliability and can provide certain technical support for the decision-making of the reduction and prevention of geo-hazards.
Geo-hazards monitoring and early warning is an important means to enhance the ability to actively respond to geo-hazards. In this paper, the main characteristics of the first and second generation geo-hazards early warning models are analyzed, a geo-hazards early warning model based on multivariable linear regression is established, and the model is superimposed with geographic information system(GIS) to achieve a dynamic visualization method of meteorological precipitation information. On this basis, a geo-hazards monitoring and early warning system is developed by using GIS, database, network and other technologies, and the demonstration applications are carried out in Anhui Province. The results show that this method is feasible, and the system has certain reliability and can provide certain technical support for the decision-making of the reduction and prevention of geo-hazards.
引文
[1] 刘艳辉,刘传正,温铭生,等.中国地质灾害气象预警模型研究[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(4):738-746.
[2] 黄健.基于新一代信息技术的地质灾害监测预警系统建设[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(1):140-147.
[3] 国土资源部.全国地质灾害防治“十三五”规划:国土资发[2016]155号[R].北京:国土资源部地质环境司,2016:1-26.
[4] 王雁林.陕南地区滑坡灾害气象预警预报及其防范对策探析[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2005,16(4):345-349.
[5] 胡玉禄,魏嘉,任翠爱,等.致灾营力当量预警预报方法探讨:以山东省地质灾害气象预警预报为例[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,17(2):119-122.
[6] 刘传正.区域滑坡泥石流灾害预警理论与方法研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,31(3):1-6.
[7] 刘艳辉,刘传正,唐灿,等.基于确定性系数模型的地质灾害多因子权重计算方法[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2015,26(1):92-97.
[8] 王惠文,孟洁.多元线性回归的预测建模方法[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2007,33(4):500-504.
[9] 王振友,陈莉娥.多元线性回归统计预测模型的应用[J].统计与决策,2008,257(5):46-47.
[10] 刘传正,刘艳辉.地质灾害区域预警原理与显式预警系统设计研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2007,34(6):109-115,125.
[2] 黄健.基于新一代信息技术的地质灾害监测预警系统建设[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(1):140-147.
[3] 国土资源部.全国地质灾害防治“十三五”规划:国土资发[2016]155号[R].北京:国土资源部地质环境司,2016:1-26.
[4] 王雁林.陕南地区滑坡灾害气象预警预报及其防范对策探析[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2005,16(4):345-349.
[5] 胡玉禄,魏嘉,任翠爱,等.致灾营力当量预警预报方法探讨:以山东省地质灾害气象预警预报为例[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,17(2):119-122.
[6] 刘传正.区域滑坡泥石流灾害预警理论与方法研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,31(3):1-6.
[7] 刘艳辉,刘传正,唐灿,等.基于确定性系数模型的地质灾害多因子权重计算方法[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2015,26(1):92-97.
[8] 王惠文,孟洁.多元线性回归的预测建模方法[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2007,33(4):500-504.
[9] 王振友,陈莉娥.多元线性回归统计预测模型的应用[J].统计与决策,2008,257(5):46-47.
[10] 刘传正,刘艳辉.地质灾害区域预警原理与显式预警系统设计研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2007,34(6):109-115,125.