陕西经常项目差额变动趋势、成因、影响及对策建议
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摘要
近年来,我国经常项目顺差呈现出连年下降的态势,已经从2015年的3042亿美元逐年降至2017年的1649亿美元,降幅高达45.79%,经常项目顺差占GDP的比重也由10%下降到2%。陕西省经常项目差额与全国差额状态基本保持一致。本文通过系统梳理陕西省近十年来经常项目涉外收支及结售汇数据变动情况,针对其发展规律,运用定性和定量相结合的方法分析变动成因,在中美贸易摩擦的大背景下,找准陕西省经常项目外汇业务发展中存在的区域性、结构性问题,并提出政策建议。
In recent years, China's current account surplus has shown a downward trend year after year. It has dropped from 304.2 billion US dollars in 2015 to 164.9 billion US dollars in 2017, a drop of 45.79%. The proportion of current account surplus to GDP has also dropped from 10% to 2%. The current account balance in Shaanxi Province is basically consistent with the national balance. This paper systematically sorts out the changes in foreign-related income and expenditure and foreign exchange settlement and sales data of Shaanxi Province in the past ten years, and identifies regional and structural problems in the development of foreign exchange business of the current account of Shaanxi Province, proposes policy recommendations, with qualitative and quantitative methods under the background of Sino-US trade friction.
In recent years, China's current account surplus has shown a downward trend year after year. It has dropped from 304.2 billion US dollars in 2015 to 164.9 billion US dollars in 2017, a drop of 45.79%. The proportion of current account surplus to GDP has also dropped from 10% to 2%. The current account balance in Shaanxi Province is basically consistent with the national balance. This paper systematically sorts out the changes in foreign-related income and expenditure and foreign exchange settlement and sales data of Shaanxi Province in the past ten years, and identifies regional and structural problems in the development of foreign exchange business of the current account of Shaanxi Province, proposes policy recommendations, with qualitative and quantitative methods under the background of Sino-US trade friction.
引文
[1]李旭鹏.中国经常项目收支差额结构分析[J].重庆理工大学学报:社会科学版,2014,(4):56-61.
[2]李亦楠,赵文宏,陈晨等.经常项目外汇收支差额变化成因及影响研究—基于2008-2017年吉林省经常项目外汇业务数据实证分析[J].吉林金融研究,2018,(12):11-25.
[3]吕进中,高文博.工业化阶段与经常项目差额变化—基于25个经济体面板数据的实证研究[J].上海金融,2017,(5):3-9.
[4]袁佳,魏磊.后危机时代中国经常项目变动趋势分析[J].世界经济研究,2014,(8):22-34.
[5]邹宏元,李新.关于我国经常项目差额变动的探讨—影响因素、结构变化和可持续性[J].财政研究,2014,(7):47-49.
1本文数据均来自于国家外汇管理局官方网站及wind数据库。
[2]李亦楠,赵文宏,陈晨等.经常项目外汇收支差额变化成因及影响研究—基于2008-2017年吉林省经常项目外汇业务数据实证分析[J].吉林金融研究,2018,(12):11-25.
[3]吕进中,高文博.工业化阶段与经常项目差额变化—基于25个经济体面板数据的实证研究[J].上海金融,2017,(5):3-9.
[4]袁佳,魏磊.后危机时代中国经常项目变动趋势分析[J].世界经济研究,2014,(8):22-34.
[5]邹宏元,李新.关于我国经常项目差额变动的探讨—影响因素、结构变化和可持续性[J].财政研究,2014,(7):47-49.
1本文数据均来自于国家外汇管理局官方网站及wind数据库。