松辽流域1961-2017年极端降水变化特征
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摘要
为了在气候变暖的背景下有的放矢地防御流域洪涝灾害,根据1961—2017年松辽流域逐日降水资料,采用百分位数、距平累积、Mann-Kendall、变差系数等方法分析了松辽流域极端降水变化特征。结果表明:松辽流域极端降水阈值呈西北小、南部大的分布;松辽流域极端降水量和降水频率都是由西北向东南升高,极端降水强度呈中南部大、其他地方小的分布,极端降水比率则由西北向东南降低;极端降水指数呈西南部低东北部高的趋势。极端降水主要发生在夏季;20世纪60年代初期开始极端降水指数存在由强转弱的突变,80年代中期以后开始增强,目前处于偏强阶段;1961—2017年及突变前极端降水量及频率呈上升的趋势,极端降水强度和比率则呈下降的趋势,气温突变后极端降水指数都呈下降的趋势,变差系数增大。目前松辽流域处于极端降水偏强阶段,极端降水量大,频率高,强度大,且变差系数增大,不稳定增强,极端降水发生的几率增加,因此应引起高度重视,加强相关研究,提高对极端降水灾害的防范和应对能力。
In order to protect against floods and waterlogging in the background of climate warming, according to the daily precipitation data of Songliao Basin from 1961 to 2017, the characteristics of extreme precipitation in Songliao Rver Basin were analyzed by means of percentile, anomaly accumulation, Mann-Kendall, variation coefficient and so on. The results showed that the extreme precipitation threshold in Songliao basin was small in the northwest and large in the south; the extreme precipitation and precipitation frequency in Songliao basin were increasing from northwest to southeast, and the intensity of extreme precipitation was large in the middle and south and small in other places, and the ratio of extreme precipitation decreased from northwest to southeast, the extreme precipitation index mostly presentedthe trend of declining in the southwest and rising in the northeast; extreme precipitation mainly occurred in summer, accounting for 81.8% of the total number; at the beginning of the 1960 s, the extreme precipitation index changed from strong to weak level, which began to strengthen after the mid-1980 s and is in a strong phase now; the extreme precipitation and precipitation frequency increased from 1961 to 2017, but the intensity and ratio of extreme precipitation decreased; after the abrupt change of temperature, the extreme precipitation index decreased, and the coefficient of variation increased; at present, the extreme precipitation in Songliao Bbasin is at a strong stage, the extreme precipitation is large, the frequency is high, the intensity is large, and the variation coefficients of extreme precipitation index are increased after mutation, and instability and probability of extreme precipitation increase. Therefore, the extreme precipitation should be highly valued, relevant research should be strengthened in order to improve prevention and response ability.
In order to protect against floods and waterlogging in the background of climate warming, according to the daily precipitation data of Songliao Basin from 1961 to 2017, the characteristics of extreme precipitation in Songliao Rver Basin were analyzed by means of percentile, anomaly accumulation, Mann-Kendall, variation coefficient and so on. The results showed that the extreme precipitation threshold in Songliao basin was small in the northwest and large in the south; the extreme precipitation and precipitation frequency in Songliao basin were increasing from northwest to southeast, and the intensity of extreme precipitation was large in the middle and south and small in other places, and the ratio of extreme precipitation decreased from northwest to southeast, the extreme precipitation index mostly presentedthe trend of declining in the southwest and rising in the northeast; extreme precipitation mainly occurred in summer, accounting for 81.8% of the total number; at the beginning of the 1960 s, the extreme precipitation index changed from strong to weak level, which began to strengthen after the mid-1980 s and is in a strong phase now; the extreme precipitation and precipitation frequency increased from 1961 to 2017, but the intensity and ratio of extreme precipitation decreased; after the abrupt change of temperature, the extreme precipitation index decreased, and the coefficient of variation increased; at present, the extreme precipitation in Songliao Bbasin is at a strong stage, the extreme precipitation is large, the frequency is high, the intensity is large, and the variation coefficients of extreme precipitation index are increased after mutation, and instability and probability of extreme precipitation increase. Therefore, the extreme precipitation should be highly valued, relevant research should be strengthened in order to improve prevention and response ability.
引文
[1]丁裕国,郑春雨,申红艳.极端气候变化的研究进展[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2008,2(6):1-5.
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[13]李想,李维京,赵振国.我国松花江流域和辽河流域降水的长期变化规律和未来趋势分析[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(5):595-598.
[14]曹铮.松辽流域水资源演变规律分析[D].天津:天津大学,2010.
[15]马铁民,尤晓敏,宁方贵.松辽流域近年旱情分析[J].东北水利水电,2004,22(3):7-8,12,55.
[16]尤晓敏.2005年松辽流域汛期降雨的分析和预报[J].东北水利水电,2005,23(12):32-33.
[17]贺俊平,贺振.近53年黄河流域降水时空分布特征[J].生态环境学报,2014,23(1):95-100.
[18]马开玉,陈星,张耀存.气候诊断[M].北京:气象出版社,1996.105-160.
[19]袭祝香,纪玲玲,高晓荻.吉林省极端严寒事件时空分布特征及评估方法研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1341-1346.
[20]白美兰,郝润全,李喜仓,等.1961-2010年内蒙古地区极端气候事件变化特征[J].干旱气象,2014,32(2):189-193.
[21]孙凤华,杨修群,路爽,等.东北地区平均、最高、最低气温时空变化特征及对比分析[J].气象科学,2006,26(2):157-163.
[2]陈金明,陆桂华,吴志勇,等.长江流域极端降水过程事件的年内分布特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(4):588-594.
[3]龙妍妍,范广洲,段炼,等.中国近54年来夏季极端降水事件特征研究[J].气候与环境研究,2016,21(4):429-438.
[4]高涛,谢立安.近50年来中国极端降水趋势与物理成因研究综述[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(5):577-589.
[5]陈海山,范苏丹,张新华.中国近50a极端降水事件变化特征的季节性差异[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(6):744-751.
[6]翟盘茂,王萃萃,李威.极端降水事件变化的观测事实[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(3):144-148.
[7]刘佳,马振峰,杨淑群,等.1961-2010年大渡河流域极端降水事件变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(12):2167-2176.
[8]陆苗,高超,苏布达,等.淮河流域极端降水空间分布及概率特征[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(5):160-168.
[9]刘鑫,顾乐雨,王屏,等.近30年太湖流域极端降水特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(9):1-4.
[10]陈金明,陆桂华,吴志勇,等.长江流域极端降水过程事件的年内分布特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(4):588-594.
[11]贺振,贺俊平.1960-2012年黄河流域极端降水时空变化[J].资源科学,2014,36(3):490-501.
[12]郭志辉,杨贵羽,王喜风.松辽流域近50年来降水演变规律分析[J].人民黄河,2011,33(12):35-37.
[13]李想,李维京,赵振国.我国松花江流域和辽河流域降水的长期变化规律和未来趋势分析[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(5):595-598.
[14]曹铮.松辽流域水资源演变规律分析[D].天津:天津大学,2010.
[15]马铁民,尤晓敏,宁方贵.松辽流域近年旱情分析[J].东北水利水电,2004,22(3):7-8,12,55.
[16]尤晓敏.2005年松辽流域汛期降雨的分析和预报[J].东北水利水电,2005,23(12):32-33.
[17]贺俊平,贺振.近53年黄河流域降水时空分布特征[J].生态环境学报,2014,23(1):95-100.
[18]马开玉,陈星,张耀存.气候诊断[M].北京:气象出版社,1996.105-160.
[19]袭祝香,纪玲玲,高晓荻.吉林省极端严寒事件时空分布特征及评估方法研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1341-1346.
[20]白美兰,郝润全,李喜仓,等.1961-2010年内蒙古地区极端气候事件变化特征[J].干旱气象,2014,32(2):189-193.
[21]孙凤华,杨修群,路爽,等.东北地区平均、最高、最低气温时空变化特征及对比分析[J].气象科学,2006,26(2):157-163.