Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

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• 作者：Elmar Kriegler^a ; ^{kriegler@pik-potsdam.de} ; Nico Bauer^a ; Alexander Popp^a ; Florian Humpenö ; der^a ; Marian Leimbach^a ; Jessica Strefler^a ; Lavinia Baumstark^a ; Benjamin Leon Bodirsky^a ; ^h ; Jé ; rô ; me Hilaire^a ; ^g ; David Klein^a ; Ioanna Mouratiadou^a ; Isabelle Weindl^a ; Christoph Bertram^a ; Jan-Philipp Dietrich^a ; Gunnar Luderer^a ; Michaja Pehl^a ; Robert Pietzcker^a ; Franziska Piontek^a ; Hermann Lotze-Campen^a ; ^b ; Anne Biewald^a ; Markus Bonsch^a ; Anastasis Giannousakis^a ; Ulrich Kreidenweis^a ; Christoph Mü ; ller^a ; Susanne Rolinski^a ; Anselm Schultes^a ; Jana Schwanitz^a ; ¹ ; Miodrag Stevanovic^a ; Katherine Calvin^c ; Johannes Emmerling^d ; Shinichiro Fujimori^e ; Ottmar Edenhofer^a ; ^f ; ^g
• 关键词：Shared Socio-economic Pathway ; SSP5 ; Emission scenario ; Energy transformation ; Land-use change ; Integrated assessment modeling
• 刊名：Global Environmental Change
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：42
• 期：Complete
• 页码：297-315
• 全文大小：2166 K
• 卷排序：42

文摘

The SSP5 scenarios mark the upper end of the scenario literature in fossil fuel use, food demand, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5).. An investigation of mitigation policies in SSP5 confirms high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. In SSP5, ambitious climate targets require land based carbon management options such as avoided deforestation and bioenergy production with CCS. The SSP5 scenarios provide useful reference points for future climate change, impact, adaption, mitigation and sustainable development analysis.