安徽阜阳市大雾天气的潜势预报方法
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摘要
利用2002~2011年安徽阜阳市逐日地面、高空观测资料和NCEP/NCAR FNL再分析资料,分析大雾发生时各预报因子的分布特征,确定预报因子的阈值及消空指标,建立基于PP法思想和指标叠套方法的阜阳市大雾天气潜势预报模型。通过2013~2014年逐日业务化运行检验,基于EC细网格数值预报产品的大雾天气潜势预报模型取得了较好的预报效果,其TS评分为0.49、准确率为0.91,说明该模型具有较好业务应用价值。
Based on the daily surface observation data,sounding data and NCEP / NCAR FNL reanalysis data during 2002- 2014,the distribution characteristics of meteorological factors during fog appearance were analyzed in Fuyang of Anhui. Then the six forecast factors were selected,and their thresholds and negative indexes were determined by the cumulative frequency method. On this basis that the potential forecast model of fog in Fuyang of Anhui was built by Perfect Prognosis and index overlap methods based on the fine mesh numerical products of European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts( EC). The assessment of fog potential forecast during2013- 2014 showed that the forecast model had obtained a good forecast effect with the threat score rate of 0. 49,the accuracy rate of0. 91,the false rate of 0. 38 and the fail rate of 0. 30. Therefore,this model was worthy of application in fog potential forecast.
Based on the daily surface observation data,sounding data and NCEP / NCAR FNL reanalysis data during 2002- 2014,the distribution characteristics of meteorological factors during fog appearance were analyzed in Fuyang of Anhui. Then the six forecast factors were selected,and their thresholds and negative indexes were determined by the cumulative frequency method. On this basis that the potential forecast model of fog in Fuyang of Anhui was built by Perfect Prognosis and index overlap methods based on the fine mesh numerical products of European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts( EC). The assessment of fog potential forecast during2013- 2014 showed that the forecast model had obtained a good forecast effect with the threat score rate of 0. 49,the accuracy rate of0. 91,the false rate of 0. 38 and the fail rate of 0. 30. Therefore,this model was worthy of application in fog potential forecast.
引文
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[14]王彦磊,曹炳伟,黄兵,等.基于神经网络的单站雾预报试验[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(1):110-114.
[15]黄辉军,黄健,刘春霞,等.用GRAPES模式输出变量因子作广东沿海海雾预报[J].热带气象学报,2010,26(1):31-39.
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[19]贺皓,姜创业,徐旭然.利用MM5模式输出产品制作雾的客观预报[J].气象,2002,28(9):41-43.
[20]卢春婷,张庆奎,张录军,等.阜阳市雾日气候特征及变化趋势分析[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(3):144-151.
[21]路传彬,陈娟,尉传阳,等.一次皖北大雾的高空气象特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(29):195-200.
[22]陶寅,王胜,田红,等.安徽省大雾时空分布特征及其发生的气象条件[J].地理科学,2012,32(3):374-379.
[23]Klein W H,lewis F.Computer forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures[J].Appl Meteor,1970,(9):350-359.
[24]薛志磊,张书余.气温预报方法研究及其应用进展综述[J].干旱气象,2012,30(3):451-459.
[25]翟菁,周后福,张建军,等.基于指标叠套法的安徽省强对流天气潜势预警研究[J].气象与环境学报,2011,27(2):1-7.
[26]郝莹,姚叶青,陈焱,等.基于对流参数的雷暴潜势预报研究[J].气象,2007,33(1):51-56.
[2]刘小宁,张洪政,李庆祥,等.我国大雾的气候特征及变化初步解释[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(2):220-230.
[3]钱莉,安颖颖,赵德强.乌鞘岭高速公路路段多发交通事故的气象条件分析[J].干旱气象,2014,32(2):286-291.
[4]孙奕敏.灾害性浓雾[M].北京:气象出版社,1994.67-71.
[5]苗爱梅,李苗,王洪霞.一次持续性雾霾天气过程的阶段性特征及影响因子分析[J].干旱气象,2014,32(6):947-953.
[6]邵振平.郑州机场能见度变化特征及雾的成因分析[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(1):75-82.
[7]冯蕾,田华.国内外雾预报技术研究进展[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2014,6(1):74-81.
[8]马晓刚,罗思维,舒海燕,等.中国典型大雾落区基本概念模型的研究与建立[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(1):62-67.
[9]景学义,张雪梅,兰博文.哈尔滨市区雾的特征分析及预报指标研究[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(2):47-49.
[10]黄健,黄辉军,黄敏辉,等.广东沿岸海雾决策树预报模型[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(1):107-114.
[11]李才媛,韦惠红,邓红.SVM方法在武汉市大雾预警预报中的应用[J].暴雨灾害,2008,27(3):264-267.
[12]常军,李素萍,李祯,等.CAR和SVM方法在郑州冬半年大雾气候趋势预测中的试用[J].气象与环境科学,2008,31(1):16-19.
[13]陈贝,徐洪刚,王明天,等.成乐高速公路大雾预报方法研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2012,32(2):70-76.
[14]王彦磊,曹炳伟,黄兵,等.基于神经网络的单站雾预报试验[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(1):110-114.
[15]黄辉军,黄健,刘春霞,等.用GRAPES模式输出变量因子作广东沿海海雾预报[J].热带气象学报,2010,26(1):31-39.
[16]李法然,周之栩,陈卫锋.湖州市大雾天气的成因分析及预报研究[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(6):794-803.
[17]陈晓红,方翀.安徽省县级大雾预报业务系统[J].气象,2005,31(4):61-64.
[18]赵玉广,李江波,康锡言.用PP方法做河北省雾的分县预报[J].气象,2004,30(6):43-47.
[19]贺皓,姜创业,徐旭然.利用MM5模式输出产品制作雾的客观预报[J].气象,2002,28(9):41-43.
[20]卢春婷,张庆奎,张录军,等.阜阳市雾日气候特征及变化趋势分析[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(3):144-151.
[21]路传彬,陈娟,尉传阳,等.一次皖北大雾的高空气象特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(29):195-200.
[22]陶寅,王胜,田红,等.安徽省大雾时空分布特征及其发生的气象条件[J].地理科学,2012,32(3):374-379.
[23]Klein W H,lewis F.Computer forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures[J].Appl Meteor,1970,(9):350-359.
[24]薛志磊,张书余.气温预报方法研究及其应用进展综述[J].干旱气象,2012,30(3):451-459.
[25]翟菁,周后福,张建军,等.基于指标叠套法的安徽省强对流天气潜势预警研究[J].气象与环境学报,2011,27(2):1-7.
[26]郝莹,姚叶青,陈焱,等.基于对流参数的雷暴潜势预报研究[J].气象,2007,33(1):51-56.
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