安徽省农业温室气体排放核算与特征分析
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摘要
综合相关研究理论,选取适宜安徽省农业实际状况的温室气体排放因子和排放量核算方法,对2000-2012年安徽省3种主要温室气体CO2、CH4和N2O的排放量进行核算,以期为制定合理的农业减排措施和低碳化政策提供参考依据。结果表明:2000-2012年安徽省农业温室气体排放量介于4 470万~5 488万t,经历了波动上升、快速下降和缓慢上升3个阶段,目前安徽省正处于农业温室气体排放上升阶段,面临减排的压力。2000-2012年安徽省农业温室气体排放结构发生了明显变化,CO2排放量所占比例呈逐年增加的趋势,占总排放量的比例由2000年的24%增加到2012年的41%,而CH4排放量所占比例逐年减小,占总排放量的比例由2000年的44%减少至2012年的34%,N2O排放量所占比例相对稳定。温室气体排放类别中,水稻田CH4排放、化肥生产CO2排放始终为主要排放源,占总排放量的比例大于50%。13a间安徽省农业单位产值温室气体排放量总体不断降低,说明安徽省节能减排工作取得了一定成果。稻田CH4减排、化肥和能源利用率的提高成为未来安徽农业发展的重点。
Combined with related research theory,the appropriate emission accounting method and emission factors fitted for Anhui province were selected,and the main agricultural greenhouse gas(CO2,CH4,N2O)emissions were estimated in Anhui province from 2000 to 2012.The results showed that the emission of agricultural greenhouse gas(GHG)was between 44.70 million tone and 54.88 million tone,had gone though three periods:fluctuant increase period,rapid decrease period and slow increase period from 2000 to 2012,and Anhui province today is in third period,facing the pressure of reducing emissions.The structure of agricultural greenhouse gas changed obviously,the proportion of CO2 emission in total emission increased from 24%in 2000 to 41%in2012,the proportion of CH4 emission in total emission declined from 44% in 2000 to 34% in2012,but the proportion of N2 O emission was relatively stable.The main emissions of agricultural greenhouse gas were CH4 emission from paddy and CO2 emission from fertilizer production in Anhui province,which accounted for more than 50% of total emission.In addition,there was a decreasing trend in agricultural greenhouse gas emission per agricultural GDP in Anhui,and the future agricultural development should focus on reducing paddy CH4 emission and improving the use efficiency of fertilizer and energy.
Combined with related research theory,the appropriate emission accounting method and emission factors fitted for Anhui province were selected,and the main agricultural greenhouse gas(CO2,CH4,N2O)emissions were estimated in Anhui province from 2000 to 2012.The results showed that the emission of agricultural greenhouse gas(GHG)was between 44.70 million tone and 54.88 million tone,had gone though three periods:fluctuant increase period,rapid decrease period and slow increase period from 2000 to 2012,and Anhui province today is in third period,facing the pressure of reducing emissions.The structure of agricultural greenhouse gas changed obviously,the proportion of CO2 emission in total emission increased from 24%in 2000 to 41%in2012,the proportion of CH4 emission in total emission declined from 44% in 2000 to 34% in2012,but the proportion of N2 O emission was relatively stable.The main emissions of agricultural greenhouse gas were CH4 emission from paddy and CO2 emission from fertilizer production in Anhui province,which accounted for more than 50% of total emission.In addition,there was a decreasing trend in agricultural greenhouse gas emission per agricultural GDP in Anhui,and the future agricultural development should focus on reducing paddy CH4 emission and improving the use efficiency of fertilizer and energy.
引文
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[2]张玉铭,胡春胜,张佳宝,等.农田土壤主要温室气体(CO2、CH4、N2O)的源/汇强度及其温室效应研究进展[J].中国生态农业学报,2011,19(4):966-975.
[3]高志岭,陈新平,张福锁.农田N2O排放研究进展[J].生态环境,2004,13(4):661-665.
[4]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.The physical science basis:Contribution of working groupⅠto the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[5]宋利娜,张玉铭,胡春胜,等.华北平原高产农区冬小麦农田土壤温室气体排放及其综合温室效应[J].中国生态农业学报,2013,21(3):297-307.
[6]VergéX P C,Kimpe C D,Desjardins R L.Agricultural production,greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2007,142(2-4):255-269.
[7]Farhad N,Ken N,Iain L.An approach for modelling CO2emissions from road traffic in urbana areas[J].Science of the Total Environment,2008,406:269-278.
[8]Timilsina G R,Shrestha A.Transport sector CO2emissions growth in Asia:Underlying factors and policy options[J].Energy Policy,2009,37:4523-4539.
[9]杨俊.长江中下游地区农田生态系统N2O排放[D].重庆:西南大学,2009.
[10]王平,黄耀,张稳.1955-2005年中国稻田甲烷排放估算[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(5):291-297.
[11]康涛,杨海真,郭茹.崇明县农业温室气体排放核算[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(Z2):102-108.
[12]易之煦,李沙.四川省农业温室气体排放清单核算[J].科技资讯,2013(1):149-150.
[13]IPCC国家温室气体清单工作组.IPCC国家温室气体清单指南[M].京都:日本全球环境战略研究所(IGES),2006.
[14]杨谨,鞠丽萍,陈彬.重庆市温室气体排放清单研究与核算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(3):63-69.
[15]West T O,Marland G.A synthesis of carbon sequestration,carbon emissions,and net carbon flux in agriculture:Comparing tillage practices in the United States[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems&Environment,2002,91(1-3):217-232.
[16]张稳,黄耀,郑循华,等.稻田甲烷排放模型研究——模型及其修正[J].生态学报,2004,24(11):2347-2352.
[17]张稳,黄耀,郑循华,等.稻田甲烷排放模型研究——模型灵敏度分析[J].生态学报,2006,26(5):1359-1366.
[18]卢燕宇,黄耀,张稳,等.基于GIS技术的1991-2000年中国农田化肥氮源一氧化二氮直接排放量估计[J].应用生态学报,2007,18(7):1539-1545.
[19]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Climate change 2007:The physical science basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[20]李长生.生物地球化学的概念与方法——DNDC模型的发展[J].第四纪研究,2001,21(2):89-99.
[21]刘丽,张仁慧,柴瑜.西安市农业非点源污染控制[J].干旱地区农业研究,2005,23(3):209-212.
[22]李文,马友华,夏蕾,等.安徽省循环农业发展典型案例研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2008,16(6):1568-1571.
[23]洪芳柏.低碳经济与温室气体核算[J].杭州化工,2009,39(1):4-6.
[24]黄耀沛,许应春.论我国低碳农业的发展[J].当代经济,2012(4):70-72.
[25]李昌碧.我国低碳农业发展的主要路径与制度安排[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2012.
目录
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