安徽省空间城市化安全指标体系构建及测度
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摘要
在界定空间城市化安全的涵义、构建空间城市化安全的评价指标体系和确定指标警限标准的基础上,基于1999—2010年统计数据,对安徽省空间城市化安全进行了实证分析。1999—2010年,安徽省空间城市化安全由轻微不安全转变为基本安全。虽然城市用地快速扩张,但是规模偏小,仍处于或迫近合理区间;城市人口密度迅速上升,建成区绿化覆盖率缓慢提高,促进空间城市化安全提升;人均耕地资源虽然有所减少,但是由于耕地资源丰富,仍然处于基本安全等级;人均水资源减少,水资源短缺成为制约瓶颈。
On the basis of defining the meaning of spatial urbanization security,establishing index system,and determining the standard value of each index,empirical analysis on spatial urbanization security in Anhui Province was made based on the data from 1999 to 2010 in Anhui Province.Conclusion is that the spatial urbanization security in Anhui Province changed from slight unsafe into basic safety from 1999 to 2010.The reasons are those: Urban land though expanding rapidly is still in or close to reasonable interval.Both density of the urban population increasing rapidly and the green coverage improving slowly,are helpful to promote spatial urbanization security upgrade.Per capita arable land,which has been decreasing,is still at a basic safety level for being rich in resources.Decreasing in per capita water resources and water shortages have become the bottleneck.
On the basis of defining the meaning of spatial urbanization security,establishing index system,and determining the standard value of each index,empirical analysis on spatial urbanization security in Anhui Province was made based on the data from 1999 to 2010 in Anhui Province.Conclusion is that the spatial urbanization security in Anhui Province changed from slight unsafe into basic safety from 1999 to 2010.The reasons are those: Urban land though expanding rapidly is still in or close to reasonable interval.Both density of the urban population increasing rapidly and the green coverage improving slowly,are helpful to promote spatial urbanization security upgrade.Per capita arable land,which has been decreasing,is still at a basic safety level for being rich in resources.Decreasing in per capita water resources and water shortages have become the bottleneck.
引文
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[2]董明辉,邹滨.城市两型社会发展评价与对策实证研究[J].地域研究与开发,2012,31(3):126-130.
[3]艾德加.M.胡佛.区域经济学导论[M].郭万清,译.上海:上海远东出版社,1992:3.
[4]刘耀彬.城市化与生态环境耦合机制及调控研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2007.
[5]朱英明,姚士谋,李玉见.我国城市化进程中的空间演化研究[J].地理学与国土研究,2000,16(2):12-16.
[6]Lee James,Zhu Yapeng.Urban Governance,Neoliberal-ism and Housing Reform in China[J].The Pacific Re-view,2006,19(1):39-61.
[7]Enserink Bert,Koppenjan Joop.Public Participation inChina:Sustainable Urbanization and Governance[J].Management of Environmental Quality:An InternationalJournal,2007,18(4):459-474.
[8]Yang Liu,Ma Keming,Zhao Jingzhu,Bai Xue and GuoQinghai.The Relationships of Urbanization to SurfaceWater Quality in Four Lakes of Hanyang,China[J].In-ternational Journal of Sustainable Development&WorldEcology,2007,14(3):317-327.
[9]侯景新,尹卫红.区域经济分析方法[M].北京:商务印书馆,2005:257-258,307.
[10]Berkan Demiral,Nalan Demiral.The Environmental Sen-sibility of Municipalities in Thrace Region[J].Social Re-sponsibility Journal,2005,1(3/4):190-196.
[11]Baird Ronald C.Coastal Urbanization:The Challenge ofManagement Lag[J].Management of Enviromental,2009,20(4):371-382.
[12]Sajjad S H,Shirazi S A,Khan M A,et al.Urbaniza-tion Effects on Temperature Trends of Lahore during1950—2007[J].International Journal of Climate ChangeStrategies and Management,2009,1(3):274-281.
[13]施祖麟.区域经济发展:理论与实证[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2007:255-256.
[14]黄贤金,濮励杰,彭补拙.城市土地利用变化及其响应:模型构建与实证研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2007:120-121,123.
[15]刘志刚,代合治.城市化水平测定的方法与实证分析[J].国土与自然资源研究,2006(2):6-7.
[16]聂富强.中国国家经济安全预警系统研究[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2005:399-400.
[17]章友德.城市现代化指标体系研究[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2006:274.
[18]中国科学院可持续发展战略研究组.2005中国可持续发展战略报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2005:62-86,65-66.
[19]舒可文,郭光普.美丽中国[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[20]曾肇京,石海峰.中国水资源利用发展趋势合理性分析[J].中国水利,2000(8):45-48.
[21]厉有为.城市现代化指标体系探讨[M].北京:红旗出版社,2001:13,168-169.
[22]周一星,余海波.以“五普”数据为基础对我国城镇化水平修补的建议[J].统计研究,2002,19(4):44-47.
[23]国家城调总队,福建省城调总队.建立中国城市化质量评价体系及应用研究[J].统计研究,2005,22(7):5-15.
[24]中华人民共和国国家统计局.2011年中国城市统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012.
[25]何维达,何丹.我国钢铁产业发展预测及安全度估算[J].经济理论与经济管理,2007(9):21-25.
[26]王志强.新时期江苏省重点中心镇的选择初探[J].城市发展研究,2005,12(4):7-10.
[27]郭亚军,易平涛.线性无量纲化方法的性质分析[J].统计研究,2008,25(2):93-100.
[28]Zhang Xiaobo,Mount T D,Boisvert R N.Industrializa-tion,Urbanization and Land Use in China[J].Journal ofChinese Economic and Business Studies,2004,2(3):207-224.
目录
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