中国大陆地震风险分析模型研究(Ⅱ):生命易损性模型
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摘要
通过比较研究前人的工作成果,采用陈颙等人提出的宏观易损性分析思路,完善了该分析方法的人口和GDP分配方案,同时考虑了前人忽略了的人员死亡率为0时的特殊情况,在收集大量灾害性地震资料的基础上,拟合出了新的地震生命易损性模型.通过和云南省县级尺度上建筑物易损性分类清单法预测结果相对比,证明本文建立的地震生命易损性模型是合理可行的,在地震灾害损失预测和地震应急工作中都具有实际应用价值.
Through a comparative study results of the work of our predecessors,Chen Yong,who used the Macro Vulnerability Analysis (MVA),and on the basis of collection of a large number of seismic disasters data,improve the analysis of the population and GDP allocation scheme,taking into account the cause of the mortality rate 0 neglected by predecessors,finally fitting out a new model of the seismic life vulnerability. It proved that the establishment of this seismic life vulnerability model is reasonably practicable by compared to predicted results of building vulnerability categorized list in county scale in Yunnan Province,and has practical applications value in the loss of earthquake prediction and earthquake disaster emergency work at present.
Through a comparative study results of the work of our predecessors,Chen Yong,who used the Macro Vulnerability Analysis (MVA),and on the basis of collection of a large number of seismic disasters data,improve the analysis of the population and GDP allocation scheme,taking into account the cause of the mortality rate 0 neglected by predecessors,finally fitting out a new model of the seismic life vulnerability. It proved that the establishment of this seismic life vulnerability model is reasonably practicable by compared to predicted results of building vulnerability categorized list in county scale in Yunnan Province,and has practical applications value in the loss of earthquake prediction and earthquake disaster emergency work at present.
引文
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[2]Whit man R V.Damage probability matrices for prototype buildings[R].Massachusetts Institute of Technology Depart ment of Civil Engineering Research Report R73-57.Cambridge:Massachusetts,1973
[3]傅征祥,李革平.地震生命损失研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1993
[4]赵振东,郑向远.地震人员伤亡的研究与进展[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):93-99
[5]陈颙,刘杰,陈棋福,等.地震危险性分析和震害预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1999
[6]Chen Yong,Chen Qifu,Chen Ling.Vulnerability analysis in earthquake loss esti mate[J],Natural Hazards,2001(16):1-16
[7]国家地震局,国家统计局.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1990—1995年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1996
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[9]楼宝堂.中国古今地震灾情总汇(公元前2221年至公元1994年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1996
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