基于距离判别分析法的冲击地压预测研究
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摘要
考虑影响冲击地压的矿山地质因素和开采技术因素,提出预测预报冲击地压危险性的距离判别分析方法。选用煤层开采深度、顶板岩性、地质构造复杂程度、煤层倾角、煤层厚度、开采方法、有无煤柱、炮采或综采8项指标作为距离判别分析模型的输入变量,并以工程实测数据作为学习样本进行训练,建立相应判别函数对待判样本进行预测。研究结果表明,距离判别分析模型学习性能良好,预测精度高,回判估计的误判率为零,是冲击地压预测预报的一种有效而实用的方法。
A new method to predict rock burst is presented by considering the effect of mining techniques and geological conditions on rock burst. Eight indexes including uniaxial compressive strength, p-wave velocity in rock, volumetric joint count, joint roughness coefficients, joint weathering coefficients and permeability coefficient are selected as the input variables, and thus a distance discriminant analysis model is established. The discriminant functions of this model are obtained by training a large set of study samples, and then applied to engineering. The results show that this model has an excellent performance, high prediction accuracy and can be used in practical engineering.
A new method to predict rock burst is presented by considering the effect of mining techniques and geological conditions on rock burst. Eight indexes including uniaxial compressive strength, p-wave velocity in rock, volumetric joint count, joint roughness coefficients, joint weathering coefficients and permeability coefficient are selected as the input variables, and thus a distance discriminant analysis model is established. The discriminant functions of this model are obtained by training a large set of study samples, and then applied to engineering. The results show that this model has an excellent performance, high prediction accuracy and can be used in practical engineering.
引文
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[2]章梦涛,宋维源,潘一山.煤层注水预防冲击地压的研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(10):69~71
[3]刘文岗,姜耀东,周宏伟等.冲击倾向性煤体的细观特征与裂纹失稳的试验研究[J].湖南科技大学学报,2006,21(4):14~18
[4]刘建军,王锦山,梁冰等.冲击地压震级预测的灰色系统方法[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,1998,17(2):222~224
[5]李坤,田慧欣,宋守志.基于人工神经网络的冲击地压预测[J].中国矿业,2004,13(10):67~69
[6]吴财芳,曾勇.神经网络在冲击地压危险性预测预报研究中的应用[J].工程地质学报,2003,11(3):263~268
[7]窦林名,何学秋.冲击矿压危险预测的电磁辐射原理[J].地球物理学进展,2005,20(2):427~431
[8]闵文江,卜凡启等.煤矿冲击矿压及防治技术[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,1998
[9]姜谙男.冲击地压危险性预测的最小二乘支持向量机模式识别[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(S1):4881~4886
[10]宫凤强,李夕兵.距离判别分析法在岩体质量等级分类中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(1):190~194
[11]宫凤强,李夕兵.矿区立井井筒非采动破裂的距离判别分析预测法[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(7):700~704
[12]范金城,梅长林.数据分析[M].北京:科学出版社,2002
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