2012年9月7日彝良5.7、5.6级地震预测及科学依据
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摘要
通过分析彝良地震前地震预测意见和预测依据,认为:彝良地震前云南最主要的地震活动特征是境内6级以上地震平静时间接近或超过20世纪以来的极限时间,中等地震丛集过程中,缺少6级地震活动;宁蒗地震的窗口意义和前兆异常数量持续增加是判断地震短期危险性的主要依据;4级地震密集活动区为地点判断提供线索。彝良地震与缅甸地震同时孕育的复杂性,增加了地震预测的难度,也丰富了我们对地震孕育过程的认识。
Basing on the prediction opinion and criteria of Yiliang M5. 7、5. 6 earthquakes,we considered that the main earthquake activity characterstic before Yiliang M5.7、5.6 earthquakes was the earthquake quietude time of M≥6. 0 earthquakes approached to or exceeded its utmost time since 20th centry,and there is lack of M≥6. 0 earthquakes in the period of continuous occurrence of moderate strong earthquakes activity in Yunnan province. The main basis of the short-term earthquake risk were the window effect of Ninglang earthquake and the continuous increase of precursor abnormity items. The concentrating activity area of M≥4. 0 earthquakes provided the clue of earthquake occurrence location judgment. Because of the preparation of Yiliang M5. 7、5. 6 and Burma MS 7.0 earthquakes in the same period,which increased the prediction difficulty of Yiliang M5. 7、5. 6 earthquakes,how ever it also enriched our understanding of earthquake gestation.
Basing on the prediction opinion and criteria of Yiliang M5. 7、5. 6 earthquakes,we considered that the main earthquake activity characterstic before Yiliang M5.7、5.6 earthquakes was the earthquake quietude time of M≥6. 0 earthquakes approached to or exceeded its utmost time since 20th centry,and there is lack of M≥6. 0 earthquakes in the period of continuous occurrence of moderate strong earthquakes activity in Yunnan province. The main basis of the short-term earthquake risk were the window effect of Ninglang earthquake and the continuous increase of precursor abnormity items. The concentrating activity area of M≥4. 0 earthquakes provided the clue of earthquake occurrence location judgment. Because of the preparation of Yiliang M5. 7、5. 6 and Burma MS 7.0 earthquakes in the same period,which increased the prediction difficulty of Yiliang M5. 7、5. 6 earthquakes,how ever it also enriched our understanding of earthquake gestation.
引文
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付虹,李永莉,赵小艳.2008.云南M≥5地震震前异常的统计特征[J].地震研究,31(2):335-339.
付虹,王炜,王世芹,等.2002.地震活动因子值在川滇地区MS≥6地震中短期预报中的应用[J].内陆地震,16(3):205-211.
郭增建,秦保燕.1979.震源物理[M].北京:地震出版社.
李丽,张国民.1999.前兆场动态演化与强震成组活动[J].中国地震,15(4):310-322.
石绍先,付虹,沈斌,等.1991.1988年澜沧—耿马大震的预报和再认识过程[J].西北地震学报,13(1):35-40.
苏有锦,李忠华.2011.云南地区6级以上强震时间分布特征及其概率预测模型研究[J].地震研究,34(1):1-7.
张国民,张晓东,吴荣辉,等.2005.地震预报回顾与展望[J].国际地震动态,(5):39-53.
陈立德.1998.丽江7.0级地震短临预报特征及震源硬化模型[J].地震,18(1):7-13.
付虹,陈立德,罗平,等.1997a.1995年7月12日云南孟连中缅边界7.3级地震中短临预报及前兆异常特征(2)[J].地震研究,20(3):249-258.
付虹,陈立德,罗平,等.1997b.1995年7月12日云南孟连中缅边界7.3级地震中短临预报及前兆异常特征(3)[J].地震研究,20(4):345-355.
付虹,李永莉,赵小艳.2008.云南M≥5地震震前异常的统计特征[J].地震研究,31(2):335-339.
付虹,王炜,王世芹,等.2002.地震活动因子值在川滇地区MS≥6地震中短期预报中的应用[J].内陆地震,16(3):205-211.
郭增建,秦保燕.1979.震源物理[M].北京:地震出版社.
李丽,张国民.1999.前兆场动态演化与强震成组活动[J].中国地震,15(4):310-322.
石绍先,付虹,沈斌,等.1991.1988年澜沧—耿马大震的预报和再认识过程[J].西北地震学报,13(1):35-40.
苏有锦,李忠华.2011.云南地区6级以上强震时间分布特征及其概率预测模型研究[J].地震研究,34(1):1-7.
张国民,张晓东,吴荣辉,等.2005.地震预报回顾与展望[J].国际地震动态,(5):39-53.
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