西北地区地震综合前兆信息量S值的应用研究
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摘要
一个地震前兆观测异常所提供的地震信息一般由异常地点、异常变化量、异常持续时间以及异常完成后的延续有效时间等诸多因素所决定,因此提出了用于描述地震异常的前兆信息量S值。根据地震前兆异常信息量综合数学表达式为基础,充分结合平滑滤波、消周期及趋势项和从属函数等数据处理方法,对西北地区67个观测资料较为连续的前兆主要台项进行地震综合信息量S值的计算与提取。结果表明,S值综合信息量时序曲线在西北地区1986年5月至2005年3月间的10次MS≥5.0地震震前均出现不同程度的高值异常(S≥0.154)。
Earthquake precursor observation provided the earthquake information generally including the locality of anomaly,the variable of anomaly,the duration of anomaly,the effective extension of time after anomaly completion,therefore,the earthquake synthetical information variable S-value is proposed to describe the earthquake anomaly.Taking synthetical mathematic expression of the earthquake anomaly information as base,the smooth filter,disappearing cycle,tendency item as well as the data processing method,such as the subordinate function method,are used to compute and extract the value S from 67 sets of observational data in Northwest China region.The results show that the S value synthetical information during the period of May 1986 to March 2005,10 earthquakes with MS≥5.0 in the Northwest China region appears very high anomaly(S=0.154).
Earthquake precursor observation provided the earthquake information generally including the locality of anomaly,the variable of anomaly,the duration of anomaly,the effective extension of time after anomaly completion,therefore,the earthquake synthetical information variable S-value is proposed to describe the earthquake anomaly.Taking synthetical mathematic expression of the earthquake anomaly information as base,the smooth filter,disappearing cycle,tendency item as well as the data processing method,such as the subordinate function method,are used to compute and extract the value S from 67 sets of observational data in Northwest China region.The results show that the S value synthetical information during the period of May 1986 to March 2005,10 earthquakes with MS≥5.0 in the Northwest China region appears very high anomaly(S=0.154).
引文
[1]平建军,张永仙,张清荣,等.华北地区地震短期综合预测方法研究[J].中国地震,2003,19(4):416-424.
[2]平建军,王秀英.地震前兆信息量的研究(二)[J].华北地震科学,1999,17(3):8-15.
[3]平建军,罗兰格,曹肃朝.华北地区地震异常前兆信息场演化特征及与地震关系的研究[J].中国地震,2000,16(3):221-231.
[4]曹凤鹃,王海燕,王安东.地震综合信息量S值在辽宁及邻近地区中强地震前变化特征研究[J].地震,2006,26(1):79-86.
①马文静等,青藏高原北部地区强震短期前兆特征及其预测方法研究,2003年。
[2]平建军,王秀英.地震前兆信息量的研究(二)[J].华北地震科学,1999,17(3):8-15.
[3]平建军,罗兰格,曹肃朝.华北地区地震异常前兆信息场演化特征及与地震关系的研究[J].中国地震,2000,16(3):221-231.
[4]曹凤鹃,王海燕,王安东.地震综合信息量S值在辽宁及邻近地区中强地震前变化特征研究[J].地震,2006,26(1):79-86.
①马文静等,青藏高原北部地区强震短期前兆特征及其预测方法研究,2003年。
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