江苏—南黄海地区地震链及其有序网络结构研究
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摘要
根据翁文波信息预测理论,对江苏—南黄海地区自1839年以来M_s≥5中强地震链时空有序性进行了深入研究,构建了本区南黄海海域和全区M_s≥6强震的有序网络结构,并据此对未来6级强震进行了预测,同时分析讨论了本区地震活动的分期.结论表明:本区从1998年起进人新一轮平静幕,此幕可能持续到2042年前后.下次活跃幕的首次6级强震可能发生在2053年前后.
According to the information prediction theory, we have done an in-depth research on the spatio-temporal orderliness of M_S≥5 mid-strong earthquake chains in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region since 1839. We conceived M_5≥6 strong earthquake orderly network structure in the South Yellow Sea region and the whole region. We also did prediction of strong earthquake with magnitude 6 in the future and meanwhile we analysed and discussed the variation of seismicity. The result showed that since 1998 it has entered into a new quiet episode, and it may last to about 2042; the first strong earthquake with magnitude 6 of next active episode may take place in the year about 2053.
According to the information prediction theory, we have done an in-depth research on the spatio-temporal orderliness of M_S≥5 mid-strong earthquake chains in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region since 1839. We conceived M_5≥6 strong earthquake orderly network structure in the South Yellow Sea region and the whole region. We also did prediction of strong earthquake with magnitude 6 in the future and meanwhile we analysed and discussed the variation of seismicity. The result showed that since 1998 it has entered into a new quiet episode, and it may last to about 2042; the first strong earthquake with magnitude 6 of next active episode may take place in the year about 2053.
引文
[1] 翁文波.预测论基础.北京:石油工业出版社,1984 Weng W B. Fundamentals of Forecasting Theory ( in Chinese). Beijing; Petroleum Industry Press, 1984
[2] 翁文波,吕牛顿,张清.预测学.北京:石油工业出版社,1996 Weng W B, Lii N D, Zhang Q. Theory of Forecasting (in Chinese). Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 1996
[3] 翁文波原著,门可佩等整理.初级数据分布.北京:石油工业出版社,2004 Weng W B, Men K P, Qing W L. Primary Data Distribution (in Chinese). Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 2004
[4] 徐道一,王明太,耿庆国等.翁文波院士的信息预测理论体系的创新性及其意义.地球物理学进展,2007,22(4) :1375-1379 Xu D Y, Wang M T, Geng Q G, et al. The creativity of informative forecasting theory and it s significance. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2007 ,22(4) :1375-1379
[5] 徐道一,Ouchi T.亚洲大地震的时间有序性和沙罗周期.地球物理学报,1999,42(增刊):42-48 Xu D Y, Ouchi T. Temporal ordering of earthquakes in Asia and Saros period. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese),1999, 42(Suppl. ) :42-48
[6] Xu D Y, Ouchi T. Spatiotemporal ordering of great earthquakes (M≧8． 0) in Asia during 1934-1970 years. Research Report of RCUSS , Kobe University , 1998, (2) :159-170
[7] Xu D Y, Ouchi T. Equidistant ordering of shallow earthquakes (M≧7． 5) in and around Japan since 1890． Research Report of RCUSS , Kobe University , 1998,(2) :141-158
[8] Xu D Y, Asteriadis G, Arabelos D. Equidistance ordering of large earthquakes in the aegean and surrounding areas. Survey Review, 1999,35(273) :204-214
[9] Xu D Y, Ouchi T. On the network feature of large earthquake occurrence that appear in the spatio-tempral distribution. In:Programme and Abstracts. The Seismological Society of Japan. 1997,(2) :A54
[10] 徐道一.大地震发生的网络性质--兼论有关地震预测的争论.地学前缘,2001,8(2) :211-216 Xu D Y. The network features of large earthquake occurrence and some words on the debate of earthquake prediction. Earth Science Frontiers (in Chinese), 2001,8(2) : 211-216
[11] 徐道一.试论“系统”和“网络”的异同.王恒礼,毕孔彰,吴风呜主编.地学哲学与全面建设小康社会.北京:中国大地出版社,2004,263-268 Xu D Y. On the similarities and dissimilarities of terms "System" and "Network". In:Wang H L, Bi K Z, Wu F M eds. Geoscience Philosophy and building a well-off society in an all-round way (in Chinese). Beijing: China Land Press, 2004,263-268
[12] 徐道一.天地生人网络研究的新方法:实例和认识.矿物岩石地球化学通报,2005,24(2) :178-180 Xu D Y. Research on new method of the network among cosmos, earth, biology and humans: examples and cognition. Bulletin of Mineralogy, Petrology and Geochemistry (in Chinese), 2005 ,24(2) :178-180
[13] 郭增建,秦保燕.灾害物理学简论.灾害学,1987,(2) :25-33 Guo Z J, Qin B Y. Brief Discussion on Disaster Physics. Journal of Catastrophology (in Chinese) ,1987, (2) :25-33
[14] 郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.未来灾害学.北京:地震出版社,1992 Guo Z J, Qin B Y, Li G P. Future Catastrophology (in Chinese). Beijing:Seismological Press, 1992
[15] 郭增建,秦保燕,郭安宁.地气耦合与天灾预测.北京:地震出版社,1996 Guo Z J, Qin B Y, Guo A N. Coupling Effect of the Earth-Gas and Disaster Forecasting ( in Chinese). Beijing:Seismological Press, 1996
[16] 郭增建,郭安宁,周可兴.地球物理灾害链.西安:西安地图出版社,2007 Guo Z J, Guo A N, Zhou K X. Geophysical Disaster Chain (in Chinese). Xi'an:Xi'an Map Press, 2007
[17] 耿庆国.中国旱震关系研究.北京:海洋出版社,1985 Geng Q G. . Research on the relation of drought and earthquake (in Chinese). Beijing:China Ocean Press, 1985
[18] 门可佩.信息预测理论与新疆地区7级强震趋势研究.地球 物理学进展,2002,17(3) :418-423 Men K P. Theory of informational forecast and M≧7 strong earthquake trend in Xinjiang area. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2002,17(3) :418-423
[19] 门可佩.青藏高原北部地区7级强震的有序网络特征及其预测研究.地球物理学进展,2003,18(4) :765-771 Men K P. Orderly network feature of M≧7 earthquakes and its prediction in the northern part of Qinghai-Xizang plateau.Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese) ,2003,18(4) :765-771
[20] 门可佩.重大地震灾害链的时空有序性及其预测研究.地球物理学进展,2007,22(2) :645-651 Men K P. Time-space order of severe earthquake disaster chain and its prediction. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese) , 2007,22(2) :645-651
[21] 门可佩.青藏北块M≥7强震有序网络结构与汶川8级大震预测回顾.中国工程科学,2009,11(6) :82-88 Men K P. Orderly network structure of M≧ 7 strong earthquakes in the north of Tibet-Plateau and retrospect of prediction for Wenchuan M8． 0 earthquake. Engineering Sciences (in Chinese), 2009 ,11(6) :82-88
[22] 门可佩.江苏-南黄海地区M≥6强震预测研究.地震地磁观测与研究,1993,14(2) :7-12 Men K P. Research for the prediction of strong earthquakes (M≧6) in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region. Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research ( in Chinese) , 1993,14(2) :7-12
[23] 门可佩,赵兵.江苏 南黄海地区地震活动趋势研究.地震地磁观测与研究,1997,18(3) :65-72 Men K P, Zhao B. Research on seismicity trend of moderately strong earthquakes in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region. Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research (in Chinese),1997,18(3) :65-72
[24] 门可佩,李端.南黄海地区强震趋势预测.西北地震学报,2000,22(2) :134-138 Men K P, Li D. Prediction for the trend of strong earthquakes in the southern Yellow Sea area. Northwestern Seismological Journal (in Chinese) , 2000 ,22(2) :134-138
[25] 门可佩.可公度性理论与南黄海强震预测.见:王明太,耿庆国主编.20世纪回眸:翁文波院士与天灾预测.北京:石油工业出版社,2001． 121-128 Men K P. Theory of Commensurability and Strong Earthquake Prediction in the South Yellow Sea. In:Wang M T, Geng Q G eds. Review for the 20th century: Academician Weng Wen-bo and Natural Disaster Forecasting (in Chinese). Beijing: Petroleu Industry Press,2001． 121-128
[26] 门可佩.中国大陆东西部地区强震的有序网络结构研究.见:王明太,耿庆国主编.中国天灾信息预测研究进展--继承弘扬翁文波学术思想掠影.北京:石油工业出版社,2004． 163-168 Men K P. Study on Ordered Network Structures of Strong Earthquakes and Prediction in the Eastern and Western Regions of China Continent. In:Wang M T,Geng Q G eds.Progress Natural Disaster of Informational Forecasting in China (in Chinese). Beijing: Petroleu Industry Press, 2004． 163-168
[27] 门可佩.江苏-南黄海地区强震有序网络结构与地震活动分期研究.地球物理学进展,2006,21(3) :1028-1032 Men K P. Ordered network structrue of strong earthquakes and division of seismic period in Jiangsu-the South Yellow Sea region. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2006, 21 (3) : 1028-1032
[28] 谢华章,田建明.长江中下游 南黄海地震带地震活动趋势分析.地震学刊,1998,(3) :1-6 Xie H Z, Tian J M. Tendency analysis of seismicity for seimic zone of Changjiang mid-downstream reach and South Yellow Sea. Journal of Seismology (in Chinese), 1998, (3) :1-6
[29] 江苏省地震局.江苏地震志.北京:地震出版社,1987 Earthquake Administration of Jiangsu Province. Historical Materials of Jiangsu Earthquake (in Chinese). Beijing:Seismological Press, 1987
[30] 国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪-公元1911年).北京:地震出版社,1995 Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention, State Seismological Bureau. Catalogue of Chinese Historical Strong Earthquakes (the 23rd century B. C.-1911 A,D. ) (in Chinese). Beijing: Seismological Press, 1995
[31] 中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年-1990年,M_s≥4． 7) .北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999 Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention, China Earthquake Administration. Catalogue of Chinese Recent Earthquakes (1912-1990 A. D. M_s≧4． 7) (in Chinese). Beijing: China Science and Technology Press, 1999
[32] Holland J H. Emergence:From Chaos to Order. London:Oxford University Press, 1998． 1-258
[2] 翁文波,吕牛顿,张清.预测学.北京:石油工业出版社,1996 Weng W B, Lii N D, Zhang Q. Theory of Forecasting (in Chinese). Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 1996
[3] 翁文波原著,门可佩等整理.初级数据分布.北京:石油工业出版社,2004 Weng W B, Men K P, Qing W L. Primary Data Distribution (in Chinese). Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 2004
[4] 徐道一,王明太,耿庆国等.翁文波院士的信息预测理论体系的创新性及其意义.地球物理学进展,2007,22(4) :1375-1379 Xu D Y, Wang M T, Geng Q G, et al. The creativity of informative forecasting theory and it s significance. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2007 ,22(4) :1375-1379
[5] 徐道一,Ouchi T.亚洲大地震的时间有序性和沙罗周期.地球物理学报,1999,42(增刊):42-48 Xu D Y, Ouchi T. Temporal ordering of earthquakes in Asia and Saros period. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese),1999, 42(Suppl. ) :42-48
[6] Xu D Y, Ouchi T. Spatiotemporal ordering of great earthquakes (M≧8． 0) in Asia during 1934-1970 years. Research Report of RCUSS , Kobe University , 1998, (2) :159-170
[7] Xu D Y, Ouchi T. Equidistant ordering of shallow earthquakes (M≧7． 5) in and around Japan since 1890． Research Report of RCUSS , Kobe University , 1998,(2) :141-158
[8] Xu D Y, Asteriadis G, Arabelos D. Equidistance ordering of large earthquakes in the aegean and surrounding areas. Survey Review, 1999,35(273) :204-214
[9] Xu D Y, Ouchi T. On the network feature of large earthquake occurrence that appear in the spatio-tempral distribution. In:Programme and Abstracts. The Seismological Society of Japan. 1997,(2) :A54
[10] 徐道一.大地震发生的网络性质--兼论有关地震预测的争论.地学前缘,2001,8(2) :211-216 Xu D Y. The network features of large earthquake occurrence and some words on the debate of earthquake prediction. Earth Science Frontiers (in Chinese), 2001,8(2) : 211-216
[11] 徐道一.试论“系统”和“网络”的异同.王恒礼,毕孔彰,吴风呜主编.地学哲学与全面建设小康社会.北京:中国大地出版社,2004,263-268 Xu D Y. On the similarities and dissimilarities of terms "System" and "Network". In:Wang H L, Bi K Z, Wu F M eds. Geoscience Philosophy and building a well-off society in an all-round way (in Chinese). Beijing: China Land Press, 2004,263-268
[12] 徐道一.天地生人网络研究的新方法:实例和认识.矿物岩石地球化学通报,2005,24(2) :178-180 Xu D Y. Research on new method of the network among cosmos, earth, biology and humans: examples and cognition. Bulletin of Mineralogy, Petrology and Geochemistry (in Chinese), 2005 ,24(2) :178-180
[13] 郭增建,秦保燕.灾害物理学简论.灾害学,1987,(2) :25-33 Guo Z J, Qin B Y. Brief Discussion on Disaster Physics. Journal of Catastrophology (in Chinese) ,1987, (2) :25-33
[14] 郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.未来灾害学.北京:地震出版社,1992 Guo Z J, Qin B Y, Li G P. Future Catastrophology (in Chinese). Beijing:Seismological Press, 1992
[15] 郭增建,秦保燕,郭安宁.地气耦合与天灾预测.北京:地震出版社,1996 Guo Z J, Qin B Y, Guo A N. Coupling Effect of the Earth-Gas and Disaster Forecasting ( in Chinese). Beijing:Seismological Press, 1996
[16] 郭增建,郭安宁,周可兴.地球物理灾害链.西安:西安地图出版社,2007 Guo Z J, Guo A N, Zhou K X. Geophysical Disaster Chain (in Chinese). Xi'an:Xi'an Map Press, 2007
[17] 耿庆国.中国旱震关系研究.北京:海洋出版社,1985 Geng Q G. . Research on the relation of drought and earthquake (in Chinese). Beijing:China Ocean Press, 1985
[18] 门可佩.信息预测理论与新疆地区7级强震趋势研究.地球 物理学进展,2002,17(3) :418-423 Men K P. Theory of informational forecast and M≧7 strong earthquake trend in Xinjiang area. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2002,17(3) :418-423
[19] 门可佩.青藏高原北部地区7级强震的有序网络特征及其预测研究.地球物理学进展,2003,18(4) :765-771 Men K P. Orderly network feature of M≧7 earthquakes and its prediction in the northern part of Qinghai-Xizang plateau.Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese) ,2003,18(4) :765-771
[20] 门可佩.重大地震灾害链的时空有序性及其预测研究.地球物理学进展,2007,22(2) :645-651 Men K P. Time-space order of severe earthquake disaster chain and its prediction. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese) , 2007,22(2) :645-651
[21] 门可佩.青藏北块M≥7强震有序网络结构与汶川8级大震预测回顾.中国工程科学,2009,11(6) :82-88 Men K P. Orderly network structure of M≧ 7 strong earthquakes in the north of Tibet-Plateau and retrospect of prediction for Wenchuan M8． 0 earthquake. Engineering Sciences (in Chinese), 2009 ,11(6) :82-88
[22] 门可佩.江苏-南黄海地区M≥6强震预测研究.地震地磁观测与研究,1993,14(2) :7-12 Men K P. Research for the prediction of strong earthquakes (M≧6) in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region. Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research ( in Chinese) , 1993,14(2) :7-12
[23] 门可佩,赵兵.江苏 南黄海地区地震活动趋势研究.地震地磁观测与研究,1997,18(3) :65-72 Men K P, Zhao B. Research on seismicity trend of moderately strong earthquakes in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region. Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research (in Chinese),1997,18(3) :65-72
[24] 门可佩,李端.南黄海地区强震趋势预测.西北地震学报,2000,22(2) :134-138 Men K P, Li D. Prediction for the trend of strong earthquakes in the southern Yellow Sea area. Northwestern Seismological Journal (in Chinese) , 2000 ,22(2) :134-138
[25] 门可佩.可公度性理论与南黄海强震预测.见:王明太,耿庆国主编.20世纪回眸:翁文波院士与天灾预测.北京:石油工业出版社,2001． 121-128 Men K P. Theory of Commensurability and Strong Earthquake Prediction in the South Yellow Sea. In:Wang M T, Geng Q G eds. Review for the 20th century: Academician Weng Wen-bo and Natural Disaster Forecasting (in Chinese). Beijing: Petroleu Industry Press,2001． 121-128
[26] 门可佩.中国大陆东西部地区强震的有序网络结构研究.见:王明太,耿庆国主编.中国天灾信息预测研究进展--继承弘扬翁文波学术思想掠影.北京:石油工业出版社,2004． 163-168 Men K P. Study on Ordered Network Structures of Strong Earthquakes and Prediction in the Eastern and Western Regions of China Continent. In:Wang M T,Geng Q G eds.Progress Natural Disaster of Informational Forecasting in China (in Chinese). Beijing: Petroleu Industry Press, 2004． 163-168
[27] 门可佩.江苏-南黄海地区强震有序网络结构与地震活动分期研究.地球物理学进展,2006,21(3) :1028-1032 Men K P. Ordered network structrue of strong earthquakes and division of seismic period in Jiangsu-the South Yellow Sea region. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2006, 21 (3) : 1028-1032
[28] 谢华章,田建明.长江中下游 南黄海地震带地震活动趋势分析.地震学刊,1998,(3) :1-6 Xie H Z, Tian J M. Tendency analysis of seismicity for seimic zone of Changjiang mid-downstream reach and South Yellow Sea. Journal of Seismology (in Chinese), 1998, (3) :1-6
[29] 江苏省地震局.江苏地震志.北京:地震出版社,1987 Earthquake Administration of Jiangsu Province. Historical Materials of Jiangsu Earthquake (in Chinese). Beijing:Seismological Press, 1987
[30] 国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪-公元1911年).北京:地震出版社,1995 Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention, State Seismological Bureau. Catalogue of Chinese Historical Strong Earthquakes (the 23rd century B. C.-1911 A,D. ) (in Chinese). Beijing: Seismological Press, 1995
[31] 中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年-1990年,M_s≥4． 7) .北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999 Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention, China Earthquake Administration. Catalogue of Chinese Recent Earthquakes (1912-1990 A. D. M_s≧4． 7) (in Chinese). Beijing: China Science and Technology Press, 1999
[32] Holland J H. Emergence:From Chaos to Order. London:Oxford University Press, 1998． 1-258
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