地震立体网络多因复成学说与DZW333预测模式及其应用
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摘要
综合目前各地震成因假说而提出了地震立体网络多因复成学说,该学说包括两个基本点:地震时空分布具有立体网络性;地震是显、隐性立体网络力能结构上的一个纽结。显性网络力能主要是以应力形式作用的力能,主要来源于地球自身的运转、地壳整体收缩和地幔活动因素,表现为局部性挤压和拉伸,结果往往形成断裂、断裂带、系或其他地球物理薄弱地带。隐性网络力能主要是以连续性(区域)场和瞬间冲击、扰动形式作用的力能,主要来源于太阳、月亮及太阳系各行星因素以及宇宙膨胀复原力能、宇宙高能粒子流或慧星与地球相遇引发的流星雨,表现为区域性引拉和斥推,以及瞬间冲击力、干扰力。隐性网络力对蕴震体物质和能量进行“加载”或“卸载”,结果是广泛沟通蕴震体内部及与外部的联系、调节控制蕴震体振动方式和运动方式及其能量积累和释放、促进或诱发蕴震体发震。显、隐性网络力能叠加于蕴震体,当蕴震体自由振动被叠加振动剧烈加强即蕴震体发生共振时,引起蕴震体加速运动而处于临界态,出现降维、减熵的有序特征,在临界态蕴震体受瞬间冲击或扰动,或者与环境出现解耦,而出现突变、混沌、发生地震。基于地震立体网络多因复成学说认识提出了DZW333预测模式,预测模式包括地震成因物理模型、典型地震发生机制和地震三级预测程序3部分主要内容。DZW即地震网络学说,333即由3类显性物质单元组成,即发震地壳体、球内地幔活动体、球外天体;由3部分力能因素组成,即地壳体自动力能、地幔热压体浮沉力能、星际引斥扰动力能;有3级预测程序,即时空网络预测、形态特征预测、精确信息预测。前两级预测也属于以研究对象中的共性为基础的统计预测,应确定概率值。后一级的信息预测则是以研究对象中的特性为基础的确定性预测,不涉及概率。以唐山大地震为例作了解析。
Based on the comprehending hypotheses on the mechanism of occurrence of earthquakes currently the hypothesis on stereoscopic netlike and polygenetic compound mechanism of occurrence of earthquakes has been put forward, it includes two basic aspects: the earthquake spatiotemporal distribution exhibits the characteristics of the stereoscopic network;earthquake is a node in dominant and recessive stereoscopic network structure. The dominant network force or energy are mainly the one of the stress function, it comes from the Earth movement, earth crust constringency and a mantle convection, expresses to squeeze and extend, as a result, forms the fracture zone or other weak parts of the Earth. The recessive network force or energy are mainly, the impulse and the disturbance, coming from the sun, moon and other planets of solar system, expresses pulling and pushing. The recessive network force or energy “load” or “unload” on the material and energy of the body of accumulating earthquake, resulting in extensive communication between inner part and exterior of contact, regulating and controlling the vibration method and sport way of the body of accumulating earthquake and its energy backlog and release, as well as promoting or inducing the earthquake occurrence. Based on the hypothesis mentioned above, the DZW333 predicting model has been put forward, it includes three parts: the physics model of the earthquake occurrence, the typical mechanism of the earthquake occurrence and the three steps of predicting procedure of earthquake occurrence.Take the case of the Tangshan Earthquake in 1976, it is analysed by use of DZW333 model.
Based on the comprehending hypotheses on the mechanism of occurrence of earthquakes currently the hypothesis on stereoscopic netlike and polygenetic compound mechanism of occurrence of earthquakes has been put forward, it includes two basic aspects: the earthquake spatiotemporal distribution exhibits the characteristics of the stereoscopic network;earthquake is a node in dominant and recessive stereoscopic network structure. The dominant network force or energy are mainly the one of the stress function, it comes from the Earth movement, earth crust constringency and a mantle convection, expresses to squeeze and extend, as a result, forms the fracture zone or other weak parts of the Earth. The recessive network force or energy are mainly, the impulse and the disturbance, coming from the sun, moon and other planets of solar system, expresses pulling and pushing. The recessive network force or energy “load” or “unload” on the material and energy of the body of accumulating earthquake, resulting in extensive communication between inner part and exterior of contact, regulating and controlling the vibration method and sport way of the body of accumulating earthquake and its energy backlog and release, as well as promoting or inducing the earthquake occurrence. Based on the hypothesis mentioned above, the DZW333 predicting model has been put forward, it includes three parts: the physics model of the earthquake occurrence, the typical mechanism of the earthquake occurrence and the three steps of predicting procedure of earthquake occurrence.Take the case of the Tangshan Earthquake in 1976, it is analysed by use of DZW333 model.
引文
[1]白武明.地球动力学.北京:地震出版社,2003:95-96
[2]陈英方.地震过程非线性物理模型研究的现状分析.见:地震科学中的非线性问题(2).北京:地震出版社,1995
[3]徐道一.大地震发生的网络性质.地学前缘,2001,8(2):211-215
[4]赵洪声.环境调控地震系统动态的一个可能途径论大气过程的作用.见:天地生综合研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社,1989:310-311
[5]韩东银.岩石圈动力演化的立体网络结构.见:天地生综合研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社,1989:91-92
[6]安振声.天文与地震关系的共振假说及其应用.见:天地生综合研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社,1989:272-279
[7]安镇文.刘小伟.孕震过程的非线性探索.见:地震科学中的非线性问题(2).北京:地震出版社,1995
[8]周友华,胡奉湘,饶云阶,等.地震的孕育发生与双向应变结构相伴.国际地震动态,2004(2):26-35
[9]陈学忠,尹祥础.加卸载响应比理论在中强地震(7≥M≥6)预测中的应用.中国地震,1995(1):33-37
[10]耿庆国,何善芳.唐山大震地温异常的再研究.见:天地生综合研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社,1989:261-264
[11]曾融生,张少泉,周海南,等.唐山地震区的地壳结构及大陆地震成因的探讨.地震学报,1985,7(2):4-21
[12]朱岳清,吴兵,邢如英.1976年唐山地震前后的重力变化和震区莫霍面的变形.地震学报,1985,7(1):59-75
[13]徐道一,杜品仁.唐山地震与天象异常.见:天地生综合研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社,1989:176-180
[14]徐道一.宇宙圈与地震研究进展.华南地震,1982(4):3-10
[15]汪进.地面宇宙线的强度变化与地震,地震,1988(4):44-48
[2]陈英方.地震过程非线性物理模型研究的现状分析.见:地震科学中的非线性问题(2).北京:地震出版社,1995
[3]徐道一.大地震发生的网络性质.地学前缘,2001,8(2):211-215
[4]赵洪声.环境调控地震系统动态的一个可能途径论大气过程的作用.见:天地生综合研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社,1989:310-311
[5]韩东银.岩石圈动力演化的立体网络结构.见:天地生综合研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社,1989:91-92
[6]安振声.天文与地震关系的共振假说及其应用.见:天地生综合研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社,1989:272-279
[7]安镇文.刘小伟.孕震过程的非线性探索.见:地震科学中的非线性问题(2).北京:地震出版社,1995
[8]周友华,胡奉湘,饶云阶,等.地震的孕育发生与双向应变结构相伴.国际地震动态,2004(2):26-35
[9]陈学忠,尹祥础.加卸载响应比理论在中强地震(7≥M≥6)预测中的应用.中国地震,1995(1):33-37
[10]耿庆国,何善芳.唐山大震地温异常的再研究.见:天地生综合研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社,1989:261-264
[11]曾融生,张少泉,周海南,等.唐山地震区的地壳结构及大陆地震成因的探讨.地震学报,1985,7(2):4-21
[12]朱岳清,吴兵,邢如英.1976年唐山地震前后的重力变化和震区莫霍面的变形.地震学报,1985,7(1):59-75
[13]徐道一,杜品仁.唐山地震与天象异常.见:天地生综合研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社,1989:176-180
[14]徐道一.宇宙圈与地震研究进展.华南地震,1982(4):3-10
[15]汪进.地面宇宙线的强度变化与地震,地震,1988(4):44-48
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