深水探井钻前含可信度的地层孔隙压力确立方法
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摘要
针对深水探井钻井可参考信息有限的特点,提出改进的计算上覆岩层压力梯度和建立时深关系的方法。利用概率统计理论,研究Eaton法中各个参数对最终结果的影响规律和相互关系,提出基于层速度的有效应力法与Eaton法联合预测地层孔隙压力的方法,建立了含有可信度的地层孔隙压力剖面,使其不再是一条单一的曲线,而是具有可信度信息的区间。可信度越大,得出的地层孔隙压力梯度区间越大,其不确定范围越大;反之,虽然压力梯度的不确定范围缩小,但其可信程度也随之降低;地层孔隙压力的异常高压程度越剧烈,其压力区间也越大。西非深水区域一口探井计算结果与实测压力值具有较好的一致性。
For the lack of reference data from offset wells of deep water exploration well drilling,an improved approach to determining overburden pressure gradient was presented and the relationship of time and depth was established.With the probabilistic theory,the influence of each parameter on result and the interrelationship between them of Eaton model were studied.An approach to pore pressure prediction was provided by a combined methodology of Eaton model and effective-stress method using interval velocity data,and the pore pressure profile with credibility was established.This pore pressure profile is not a single curve but the interval with credibility information.Higher the credibility or the degree of overpressure,wider the interval of pore pressure gradient and the uncertainty area,otherwise,although narrower the uncertainty area,lower the credibility.The results of a well in West Africa deep water area agree well with the field test value.
For the lack of reference data from offset wells of deep water exploration well drilling,an improved approach to determining overburden pressure gradient was presented and the relationship of time and depth was established.With the probabilistic theory,the influence of each parameter on result and the interrelationship between them of Eaton model were studied.An approach to pore pressure prediction was provided by a combined methodology of Eaton model and effective-stress method using interval velocity data,and the pore pressure profile with credibility was established.This pore pressure profile is not a single curve but the interval with credibility information.Higher the credibility or the degree of overpressure,wider the interval of pore pressure gradient and the uncertainty area,otherwise,although narrower the uncertainty area,lower the credibility.The results of a well in West Africa deep water area agree well with the field test value.
引文
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[16]金衍.井壁稳定预测理论和应用研究[D].北京:石油大学石油天然气工程学院,2001:63-64.
[2]陈庭根,管志川.钻井工程理论与技术[M].东营:石油大学出版社,2001:22-41.
[3]张传进.初探井地层孔隙压力预测方法[J].石油钻探技术,2002,30(3):13-14.ZHANG Chuan-jin.Prediction of formation pore pressurein wild cat wells[J].Petroleum Drilling Technology,2002,30(3):13-14.
[4]MORTIA Nobuo.Uncertainty analysis of borehole stabili-ty problems[R].SPE 30502,1995.
[5]da FONTOURASergio AB,HOLZBERG Bruno B,TEIX-IRA Edson C,et al.Probabilistic analysis of wellbore sta-bility during drilling[R].SPE 78179,2002.
[6]LIANG Q J.Application of quantitative risk analysis topore pressure and fracture gradient prediction[R].SPE77354,2002.
[7]樊洪海.地层孔隙压力预测检测新方法研究与应用[D].北京:石油大学石油天然气工程学院,2001.
[8]HUBBERTM K,RUBEY W W.Role of fluid pressure inmechanics of over thrust faulting[J].AAPG,1959,37(8):155-166.
[9]陆基孟.地震勘探原理[M].东营:中国石油大学出版社,2006:189-220.
[10]EATON Ben A.The equation for geopressure predictionfrom well logs[R].SPE 5544,1975.
[11]王振峰,罗晓容.莺琼盆地高温高压地层钻井压力预监测技术研究[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2004:73-74.
[12]樊洪海.利用层速度预测砂泥岩地层孔隙压力单点计算法模型[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,6(增刊):2037-2040.FAN Hong-hai.Single point algorithm for pore pressureprediction of sand-shale formations using seismic intervalvelocity[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics andEngineering,2002,6(sup):2037-2040.
[13]邓金根,程远方,陈勉,等.井壁稳定预测技术[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2008:64.
[14]茆诗松,程依明,濮小龙.概率论与数理统计教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2004.
[15]管志川,柯珂,路保平.压力不确定条件下套管层次及下深确定方法[J].中国石油大学学报:自然科学版,2009,33(4):71-75.GUAN Zhi-chuan,KE Ke,LU Bao-ping.An approachto casing program design with formation pressure uncer-tainties[J].Journal of China University of Petroleum(Edition of Natural Science),2009,33(4):71-75.
[16]金衍.井壁稳定预测理论和应用研究[D].北京:石油大学石油天然气工程学院,2001:63-64.
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