基于精炼贝叶斯均衡的电网动态应急管理
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摘要
基于对电网应急管理典型环节的分析,定义了电网事故与电网管理者的博弈关系,并对其博弈特征进行研究。按照标准博弈语言描述了电网事故与电网管理者之间的博弈要素,构建了以决策者期望效用最大化为目标的期望效用函数,根据贝叶斯法则解得电网动态应急管理方案决策的精炼贝叶斯均衡解,由此提出了电网应急管理的动态决策框架,通过电网事故信息与管理决策之间的反复博弈,修正应急预案,直至事故得到控制。通过算例说明了电网应急管理决策模型的可行性与有效性。
Based on the analysis of the typical links of grid emergency management,the game relationship between the grid accident and the grid governor was defined,and the game characteristics were studied.The game factors between the grid accident and the grid governor were described with standard game language,and the expected utility function was constructed aiming at maximizing the expected utility of the decision-maker.The perfect Bayesian equilibrium solution to decision-making of the grid dynamic emergency management plans was solved by applying the Bayes rule,and the dynamic decision-making framework was put forward.The emergency pre-scheme was then corrected through repeated gaming till the accident can be controlled.Example cases proved the decision-making model for grid emergency management feasible and effective.
Based on the analysis of the typical links of grid emergency management,the game relationship between the grid accident and the grid governor was defined,and the game characteristics were studied.The game factors between the grid accident and the grid governor were described with standard game language,and the expected utility function was constructed aiming at maximizing the expected utility of the decision-maker.The perfect Bayesian equilibrium solution to decision-making of the grid dynamic emergency management plans was solved by applying the Bayes rule,and the dynamic decision-making framework was put forward.The emergency pre-scheme was then corrected through repeated gaming till the accident can be controlled.Example cases proved the decision-making model for grid emergency management feasible and effective.
引文
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[2]徐永禧.美国、加拿大8.14大停电[J].国际电力,2003,7(5):15-19.
[3]李再华,白晓民,丁剑,等.西欧大停电事故分析[J].电力系统自动化,2007,31(1):1-3,32.
[4]蔡洋.电网事故的回顾与分析及对电网调度管理的建议[J].电网技术,2007,31(11):6-10.
[5]肖鹏.重建核心价值———对2008冰雪灾害的反思[EB/OL].http://www.serc.gov.cn/jgyj/ztbg/200804/t20080425_8931.htm,2008,4,25.
[6]国家电网:地震对四川电力供需的影响及应对措施[EB/OL].http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/8215/122548/7276524.html,2008,5,21.
[7]田世明,陈希,朱朝阳,等.电力应急管理理论与技术对策[J].电网技术,2007,31(12):22-27.
[8]MARKROV Y V,HARDIMAN R C,HAWKINS D L.Risk,reliability and restructuring[C].Power Engineering SocietyGeneral Meeting.Denver,USA.IEEE,2004:383-395.
[9]GOMES P.New strategies to improve bulk power system se-curity:lessons learned from large blackout[C].Power Engi-neering Society General Meeting,Denver,USA.IEEE,2004:1703-1708.
[10]WATTS D.Security&vulnerability in electric power system[C].North American Power System symposium,Missouri.NAPS 2003:559-566.
[11]LUBKEMAN D,JULIAN D E.Large scale storm outage man-agement[C].Power Engineering Society General Meeting.Denver,USA.IEEE,2004:16-22.
[12]LAVERTY E,SCHULZ NN.An improved algorithm to aid inpost-heat storm restoration[J].IEEE Trans on Power Sys-tems,1999,14(2):446-451.
[13]姚杰,计雷,池宏.突发事件应急管理中的动态博弈分析[J].管理评论,2005,17(3):46-50.
[14]SALEHIAN A.Dynamic Game Theory Model for the PowerTransmission Grid[C].Power Systems Conference and Expo-sition,Connecticut,USA.IEEE PES,2004:1449-1452.
[15]李路,周渝慧.博弈论在处理大电网事故中的应用[J].东北电力技术,2005(4):25-27.
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