电网停电事故的自组织临界性及其极值分析
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摘要
对复杂电力系统灾变以及电网发生连锁性大停电事故机理的研究表明,自组织临界性是电网停电事故的特征。极值理论主要以极值为研究对象,传统上被用来预测海啸、地震、洪水等自然灾害。文中将极值理论应用于电网停电事故的自组织临界性的研究中,在电网停电事故的标度—频度幂律分布特征下,证明了停电事故发生规模的极值分布为极限收敛于Ⅰ型渐近分布。利用计算公式以东北及西北电网的停电事故为例,进行了初步的计算分析。
Recent studies on the power systems collapse prevention and the mechanism of cascading failures have shown that the self-organized criticality (SOC) is the character of power system blackouts. The theory of extreme value mainly studies extreme value, which traditionally can be used as a tool forecasting tsunami, earthquake and flood. By applying the theory of extreme value in the SOC of power system blackouts, the paper proves that the limit of the size extreme value distribution of the blackouts based on the scale-frequency power-law distribution is convergent to the Ⅰformula. As an example, the calculation of extremes analysis of the blackouts data of the Northeast and Northwest China power grid is presented.
Recent studies on the power systems collapse prevention and the mechanism of cascading failures have shown that the self-organized criticality (SOC) is the character of power system blackouts. The theory of extreme value mainly studies extreme value, which traditionally can be used as a tool forecasting tsunami, earthquake and flood. By applying the theory of extreme value in the SOC of power system blackouts, the paper proves that the limit of the size extreme value distribution of the blackouts based on the scale-frequency power-law distribution is convergent to the Ⅰformula. As an example, the calculation of extremes analysis of the blackouts data of the Northeast and Northwest China power grid is presented.
引文
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[2]傅湘,王丽萍,纪昌明.极值统计学在洪灾风险评价中的应用.水利学报,2001,31(7):8-12.FU Xiang,WANG Liping,JI Changming.Application of statistics of extremes of flood hazard risk evaluation.Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2001,31(7):8-12.
[3]张卫东,李茂林,张秀梅.极值理论在地震危险性分析中的应用与研究.东北地震研究,2005,21(1):24-30.ZHANG Weidong,LI Maolin,ZHANG Xiumei.Application and study on the extreme value theory in seismic risk analysis.Seismological Research of Northeast China,2005,21(1):24-30.
[4]周开国,缪柏其.应用极值理论计算在险价值.预测,2002,
21(3):37-41.ZHOU Kaiguo,MI AO Baiqi.Calculating var with the extreme value theory.Forecasting,2002,21(3):37-41.
[5]吴昊,郭仁东,常春.多项分布极值水文统计理论应用研究.沈阳大学学报,2005,17(4):74-77.WU Hao,GUO Rendong,CHANG Chun.Analysis on multiple component extremes distribution for hydrology statistics.Journal of Shenyang University,2005,17(4):74-77.
[6]于群,郭剑波.中国电网停电事故统计与自组织临界性.电力系统自动化,2006,30(2):16-21.YU Qun,GUO Jianbo.Statistics and self-organized criticality characters of blackouts in China Electric Power Systems.Automation of Electric Power Systems,2006,30(2):16-21.
[7]于群,郭剑波.我国电力系统停电事故自组织临界性的研究.电网技术,2006,30(6):1-5.YU Qun,GUO Jianbo.Study on self-organized criticality of power system blackouts in China.Power System Technology,2006,30(6):1-5.
[8]曹一家,江全元,丁理杰.电力系统大停电的自组织临界性.电网技术,2005,29(15):1-5.CAO Yijia,JI ANG Quanyuan,DI NG Lijie.Self-organized criticality phenomenon for power system blackouts.Power System Technology,2005,29(15):1-5.
[9]易俊,周孝信.考虑系统频率特性以及保护隐性故障的电网连锁故障.电力系统自动化,2006,30(14):1-5.YI Jun,ZHOU Xiaoxin.Cascadingfailure model of power grids considering frequency response characteristics and hidden failure.Automation of Electric Power Systems,2006,30(14):1-5.
[10]史道济.实用极值统计方法.天津:天津科学技术技出版社,2006.SHI Daoji.Applied method of extremes statistics.Tianjin:Tianjin Science and Technology Press,2006.
[11]欧阳资生.极值估计在金融保险中的应用.北京:中国经济出版社,2006.OUYANG Zisheng.Application of esti mation of extremes in finance andinsurance.Beijing:China Economy Press,2006.
[12]国家电力调度通信中心.全国电网典型事故分析(1988—1998).北京:中国电力出版社,2000.State Grid Dispatching Center.Analysis of representative domestic power grid blackouts(1988—1998).Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2000.
[13]国家电力调度通信中心.全国网省调度局(所)电网责任事故分析(1990—1997).北京:中国电力出版社,2000.State Grid Dispatching Center.Analysis of province power grid dispatch liability blackouts(1990—1997).Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2000.
[14]赵遵廉.电力系统安全稳定导则学习与辅导.北京:中国电力出版社,2001.ZHAO Zunlian.Guide on security and stability for power systemof learning andtutorship.Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2001.
[15]屈靖,郭剑波.“九五”期间我国电网事故统计分析.电网技术,2004,28(21):60-63.QUJing,GUOJianbo.Statistics and analysis of faultsin main domestic power systems from1996to2000.Power System Technology,2004,28(21):60-63.
[16]郭剑波,印永华,姚国灿.1981~1991年电网稳定事故统计分析.电网技术,1994,18(2):58-61.GUO Jianbo,YI N Yonghua,YAO Guocan.Statistics and analysis for instability incidents in the bulk of power systems from1981to1991.Power System Technology,1994,18(2):58-61.
[17]郭剑波.“八五”期间全国电网稳定事故统计分析.电网技术,1998,22(2):72-74.GUOJianbo.Statistics and analysis of incidents in bulk powersystemfrom1991to1995.Power System Technology,1998,22(2):72-74.
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