云南会泽和文山5.3级地震研究
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摘要
给出了2005年8月5日云南会泽M5.3和8月13日文山M5.3地震序列的基本参数和两个主震的震源参数;讨论了两个地震序列的差异性;还介绍了在这两次地震发生前,采用改进型破裂时间法对这两次地震的发震时间和地点进行预测的情况。最后,分析了云南近期地震活动趋势,认为云南新一轮强震活动从西部转移到东部的迹象比较明显。
On August 5 and 13,2005,two M5.3 earthquakes respectively occurred in Huize and Wenshan of Yunnan Province.We give the basic parameters of the Huize and Wenshan M5.3 earthquake sequences,calculate the source parameters of the two mainshocks,and discuss the difference between the two earthquake sequences. Furthermore,we introduce the fact that the occurrence times and locations of the two shocks had been predicted using the modified time-to-failure method before the events.On the basis of above data,we analyze the seismic activity tendency in the near future in Yunnan.There are obvious signs showing that new round of activity of strong earthquakes will shift to the east of Yunnan from the west of Yunnan.
On August 5 and 13,2005,two M5.3 earthquakes respectively occurred in Huize and Wenshan of Yunnan Province.We give the basic parameters of the Huize and Wenshan M5.3 earthquake sequences,calculate the source parameters of the two mainshocks,and discuss the difference between the two earthquake sequences. Furthermore,we introduce the fact that the occurrence times and locations of the two shocks had been predicted using the modified time-to-failure method before the events.On the basis of above data,we analyze the seismic activity tendency in the near future in Yunnan.There are obvious signs showing that new round of activity of strong earthquakes will shift to the east of Yunnan from the west of Yunnan.
引文
[1]秦嘉政,刘祖荫,张俊伟.用地震标定律研究丽江7.0级地震的破裂过程[J].地震研究,1997,20(2):47-57.
[2]Varnes D J.Tim e-deformation relations in creep to failure of earthmaterials[A].See:Proc.of the 7 th SoutheastAsian Geotechn icalConference[C].Bangkok:Southeast Asian Geotechn ical Society,1983.
[3]B rehm D J,B raile L W.Application of the tim e-to-failure m ethodfor interm ed iate-term pred iction in the New Madrid Seism ic Zone[J].BSSA,1998,88(2):564-580.
[4]B rehm D J,B raile LW.Interm ed iate-term earthquake pred iction u-sing the mod ified tim e-to-failure in Southern Californ ia[J].BSSA,1999,89(1):275-293.
[5]秦嘉政,钱晓东.利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(2):140-150.
[2]Varnes D J.Tim e-deformation relations in creep to failure of earthmaterials[A].See:Proc.of the 7 th SoutheastAsian Geotechn icalConference[C].Bangkok:Southeast Asian Geotechn ical Society,1983.
[3]B rehm D J,B raile L W.Application of the tim e-to-failure m ethodfor interm ed iate-term pred iction in the New Madrid Seism ic Zone[J].BSSA,1998,88(2):564-580.
[4]B rehm D J,B raile LW.Interm ed iate-term earthquake pred iction u-sing the mod ified tim e-to-failure in Southern Californ ia[J].BSSA,1999,89(1):275-293.
[5]秦嘉政,钱晓东.利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(2):140-150.
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