水库大坝突发事件应急预案可行性评价方法初探
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摘要
编制水库大坝突发事件应急预案是大坝安全管理的重要内容,而可行性则是应急预案的基本要求,直接影响其实施效果.编制的应急预案是否具有可行性并不确定,也难以全部通过演练来判断.本文论述了构建水库大坝应急预案可行性评价指标体系的指导思想,对构建指标体系进行了初步探讨,设计了目标层、准则层和指标层的指标体系框架,确定指标序号法等评价方法,对水库大坝应急预案的可行性评价进行了实例研究,根据计算的权重值,确定应急预案的可行性评价等级,并提出提高可行性的对策措施及该方法的不足之处,为水库大坝应急预案制定和评价提供参考.
Emergency planning is an important content of dam safety management and feasibility is its basic requirement which influences directly its implementation effects.Whether emergency planning is feasible is not known,and cannot be entirely judged by drilling.The studies about it are limited at present.To assess feasibility of emergency planning of reservoir dams,this paper discusses the guiding principle for construction of the feasibility evaluation index systems,and a preliminary design is made of an index system framework which includes three levels: aim,standard and index.After determining the assessment methods such as the method of index number,the paper chooses an example to evaluate its feasibility.Its aim is to provide references for the formulation and assessment of feasible emergency planning for emergent events of reservoirs.
Emergency planning is an important content of dam safety management and feasibility is its basic requirement which influences directly its implementation effects.Whether emergency planning is feasible is not known,and cannot be entirely judged by drilling.The studies about it are limited at present.To assess feasibility of emergency planning of reservoir dams,this paper discusses the guiding principle for construction of the feasibility evaluation index systems,and a preliminary design is made of an index system framework which includes three levels: aim,standard and index.After determining the assessment methods such as the method of index number,the paper chooses an example to evaluate its feasibility.Its aim is to provide references for the formulation and assessment of feasible emergency planning for emergent events of reservoirs.
引文
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[2]李端有,王志旺.水库大坝安全管理及发展动向分析[J].中国水利,2007,(6):7-9.(LI Duan-you,WANG Zhi-wang.Dam safety management and analysis of its development trend[J].China Water Resources,2007,(6):7-9.(inChinese))
[3]杨懋源,宋峰.对地震应急预案的科学性、可操作性和体系性的讨论[J].国际地震动态,2002,(2):1-5.(YANGMao-yuan,SONG Feng.Discussion on the scientific naturee,operationability and system of preparatory plans for earthquakeemergency[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2002,(2):1-5.(in Chinese))
[4]黄典剑,宁绪成.石油化工企业应急预案评价方法研究[J].石油化工安全技术,2006,22(5):17-20.(HUANGDian-jian,NING Xu-cheng.Study on the evaluation method of emergency plans on petrochemical enterprises[J].Petrochemical Safety Technology,2006,22(5):17-20.(in Chinese))
[5]佟瑞鹏.大型社会活动事故风险管理程序与方法[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(4):157-163.(TONG Rui-peng.Basicprocedure and methods of risk management for large-scale social events[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2007,16(4):157-163.(in Chinese))
[6]黄典剑,李传归.突发事件应急能力评价-以城市地铁为对象[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2006.(HUANG Dian-jian,LI Chuan-gui.Assessment of Emergency Capacity to Major Incidents on Urban Subway[M].Beijing:MetallurgicalIndustry Press,2006.(in Chinese))
[7]国家突发公共事件总体应急预案[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/yjgl/2005-08/31/content_27872.htm.(OverallEmergency Preplan for National Sudden Public Incidents[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/yjgl/2005-08/31/content_27872.htm.(in Chinese))
[8]Jason K Levy,Kouichi Taji.Group decision support for hazards planning and emergency management:a group analytic networkprocess(GANP)approach[J].Mathematical and Computer Modelling,2007,46:906-917.
[2]李端有,王志旺.水库大坝安全管理及发展动向分析[J].中国水利,2007,(6):7-9.(LI Duan-you,WANG Zhi-wang.Dam safety management and analysis of its development trend[J].China Water Resources,2007,(6):7-9.(inChinese))
[3]杨懋源,宋峰.对地震应急预案的科学性、可操作性和体系性的讨论[J].国际地震动态,2002,(2):1-5.(YANGMao-yuan,SONG Feng.Discussion on the scientific naturee,operationability and system of preparatory plans for earthquakeemergency[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2002,(2):1-5.(in Chinese))
[4]黄典剑,宁绪成.石油化工企业应急预案评价方法研究[J].石油化工安全技术,2006,22(5):17-20.(HUANGDian-jian,NING Xu-cheng.Study on the evaluation method of emergency plans on petrochemical enterprises[J].Petrochemical Safety Technology,2006,22(5):17-20.(in Chinese))
[5]佟瑞鹏.大型社会活动事故风险管理程序与方法[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(4):157-163.(TONG Rui-peng.Basicprocedure and methods of risk management for large-scale social events[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2007,16(4):157-163.(in Chinese))
[6]黄典剑,李传归.突发事件应急能力评价-以城市地铁为对象[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2006.(HUANG Dian-jian,LI Chuan-gui.Assessment of Emergency Capacity to Major Incidents on Urban Subway[M].Beijing:MetallurgicalIndustry Press,2006.(in Chinese))
[7]国家突发公共事件总体应急预案[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/yjgl/2005-08/31/content_27872.htm.(OverallEmergency Preplan for National Sudden Public Incidents[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/yjgl/2005-08/31/content_27872.htm.(in Chinese))
[8]Jason K Levy,Kouichi Taji.Group decision support for hazards planning and emergency management:a group analytic networkprocess(GANP)approach[J].Mathematical and Computer Modelling,2007,46:906-917.
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