基于脆弱性的电力应急体系灾害损失预评估
|
摘要
介绍了基于时间维的灾害损失评估的几种评估方式,针对其中的预评估在电力应急体系中的应用展开分析,提出了在电力应急体系中进行灾害损失预评估计算方法。具体介绍了该计算方法中灾害损失数值和电力系统相关系数两个具体参数的确定方法,针对国家和上海市中最严重的台风灾害损失,根据已有的数据资料具体推导计算,得到预估台风针对电力系统造成的灾害损失,以根据预评估的数据安排电力应急体系的具体区域电力调度和保障物资的准备和发放,为电力应急体系的应急管理提供参考与辅助。
The paper introduces some time dimension based evalulation methods in disaster loss evaluation,analyzes the application of disaster loss pre-evaluation in power emergency system and proposes the computational method in disaster loss pre-evaluation of power emergency system.The paper introduces the computation method of disaster loss and power system correlation coefficient in detail.At last,according to the most severe typhoon disaster in China and Shanghai,based on the materials and deduction,the paper obtains the disaster loss pre-evaluation of typhoon in power emergency systemt,hen according to the data power emergency system it arranges the dispatch of power and prepares and distributes security materials.It provides references for the emergency management of power emergency system.
The paper introduces some time dimension based evalulation methods in disaster loss evaluation,analyzes the application of disaster loss pre-evaluation in power emergency system and proposes the computational method in disaster loss pre-evaluation of power emergency system.The paper introduces the computation method of disaster loss and power system correlation coefficient in detail.At last,according to the most severe typhoon disaster in China and Shanghai,based on the materials and deduction,the paper obtains the disaster loss pre-evaluation of typhoon in power emergency systemt,hen according to the data power emergency system it arranges the dispatch of power and prepares and distributes security materials.It provides references for the emergency management of power emergency system.
引文
[1]沈殿凤,朱正磊.电网安全管理现状及美加停电事件的启示[J].电力安全技术,2005(2):8-9.SHEN Dian-feng,ZHU Zheng-lei.The status of the power system management and the inspiration of blackout in the united States and Canada.U.S.-Canada power system[J].Electric Safety Technology,2005(2):8-9.
[2]鲁周勋.冰雪中的电网应急[J].劳动保护,2008(5):34-37.LU Zhou-xun.Power emergency in heavy snow[J].Safety Labour,2008(5):34-37.
[3]殷平,蔡志民,梁文.从冰灾看电网应急信息平台的建设[J].江西电力,2008(32):11-13.YIN Ping,CAI Zhi-min,LIANG Wen.Construction of power grid information platform for emergency management from the ice hazard[J].Jiangxi Electric Power,2008(32):11-13.
[4]国家电网公司关于处置大面积停电事件应急预案[S].北京:国家电网公司,2006.State Grid Corporation’s emergency plan in treating large area blackout incident[S].Beijing:State Grid Corporation of China,2006.
[5]发展改革委,电监会.关于加强电力系统抗灾能力建设的若干意见[S].2008.Development and Reform Commission,Electric Power Supervision.Some suggestions on enhancing power grid anti-disaster capability[S].2008.
[6]David Watts.Security&vulnerability in electric power system[C].//NAPS 2003.north American Power System Symposium.Rola(Missouri):2003:559-566.
[7]Korolev S I,Guselnikov A V.About principles of situational management of power supplies in emergency operation[C].//Actual Problems of Electronic Instrument Engineering Proceedings,APEIE.2004:268-268.
[8]Li Hao,Rosenwald G W,Jung J,et al.Strategic power infrastructure defense[J].Proceedings of the IEEE,2005,93(5):918-933.
[9]许飞琼.灾害损失评估及其系统结构[J].灾害学,1998(13):80-83.XU Fei-qiong.Disaster loss evaluation and structure of the system[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1998(13):80-83.
[10]孙峥.城市自然灾害定量评估方法及应用[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2008.SUN Zheng.Quantitative methodology and application of urban natural disaster assessment[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2008.
[11]Huston P T.Applying security and vulnerability assessment to large water wholesaling agencies[J].(ASCE DBD),Pipeline,2003.
[12]张风华,谢礼立,等.生命线系统对城市地震灾害损失评价研究[J].土木工程学报,2003(36):99-105.ZHANG Feng-hua,XIE Li-li,et al.Study on estimation of earthquake disaster losses caused by disruption of lifeline service[J].China Civil Engineering Journal,2003(36):99-105.
[13]Emrich C T.Social vulnerability in united states metropolitan areas:improvements in hazard vulnerability(Florida,south Carolina)[D].University of South Carolina,2005.
[14]Bucle P,Marsh G,Smale S,et al.Assessing resilience&vulnerability:principles strategies&actions[M].Emergency Management Australia,2001.
[15]李春梅,罗晓玲,刘锦銮,等.层次分析法在热带气旋灾害影响评估模式中的应用[J].热带气象学报,2006(22):223-228.LI Chun-mei,LUO Xiao-ling,LIU Jin-luan,et al.Application of analytical hierarchy process in the assessment model on tropical cyclone disaster’s influence[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2006(22):223-228.
[16]王军,许世远,石纯,等.基于多源遥感摄像的台风灾情动态评估——研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2008(17):22-28.WANG Jun,XU Shi-yuan,SHI Chun,et al.Dynamic assessment of typhoon disaster condition based on multi-sources remote sensing imagery:research progress[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2008(17):22-28.
[2]鲁周勋.冰雪中的电网应急[J].劳动保护,2008(5):34-37.LU Zhou-xun.Power emergency in heavy snow[J].Safety Labour,2008(5):34-37.
[3]殷平,蔡志民,梁文.从冰灾看电网应急信息平台的建设[J].江西电力,2008(32):11-13.YIN Ping,CAI Zhi-min,LIANG Wen.Construction of power grid information platform for emergency management from the ice hazard[J].Jiangxi Electric Power,2008(32):11-13.
[4]国家电网公司关于处置大面积停电事件应急预案[S].北京:国家电网公司,2006.State Grid Corporation’s emergency plan in treating large area blackout incident[S].Beijing:State Grid Corporation of China,2006.
[5]发展改革委,电监会.关于加强电力系统抗灾能力建设的若干意见[S].2008.Development and Reform Commission,Electric Power Supervision.Some suggestions on enhancing power grid anti-disaster capability[S].2008.
[6]David Watts.Security&vulnerability in electric power system[C].//NAPS 2003.north American Power System Symposium.Rola(Missouri):2003:559-566.
[7]Korolev S I,Guselnikov A V.About principles of situational management of power supplies in emergency operation[C].//Actual Problems of Electronic Instrument Engineering Proceedings,APEIE.2004:268-268.
[8]Li Hao,Rosenwald G W,Jung J,et al.Strategic power infrastructure defense[J].Proceedings of the IEEE,2005,93(5):918-933.
[9]许飞琼.灾害损失评估及其系统结构[J].灾害学,1998(13):80-83.XU Fei-qiong.Disaster loss evaluation and structure of the system[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1998(13):80-83.
[10]孙峥.城市自然灾害定量评估方法及应用[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2008.SUN Zheng.Quantitative methodology and application of urban natural disaster assessment[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2008.
[11]Huston P T.Applying security and vulnerability assessment to large water wholesaling agencies[J].(ASCE DBD),Pipeline,2003.
[12]张风华,谢礼立,等.生命线系统对城市地震灾害损失评价研究[J].土木工程学报,2003(36):99-105.ZHANG Feng-hua,XIE Li-li,et al.Study on estimation of earthquake disaster losses caused by disruption of lifeline service[J].China Civil Engineering Journal,2003(36):99-105.
[13]Emrich C T.Social vulnerability in united states metropolitan areas:improvements in hazard vulnerability(Florida,south Carolina)[D].University of South Carolina,2005.
[14]Bucle P,Marsh G,Smale S,et al.Assessing resilience&vulnerability:principles strategies&actions[M].Emergency Management Australia,2001.
[15]李春梅,罗晓玲,刘锦銮,等.层次分析法在热带气旋灾害影响评估模式中的应用[J].热带气象学报,2006(22):223-228.LI Chun-mei,LUO Xiao-ling,LIU Jin-luan,et al.Application of analytical hierarchy process in the assessment model on tropical cyclone disaster’s influence[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2006(22):223-228.
[16]王军,许世远,石纯,等.基于多源遥感摄像的台风灾情动态评估——研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2008(17):22-28.WANG Jun,XU Shi-yuan,SHI Chun,et al.Dynamic assessment of typhoon disaster condition based on multi-sources remote sensing imagery:research progress[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2008(17):22-28.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心