预警理论方法及其应用研究
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摘要
危机预警是一类带有大量不确定因素的半结构化问题或非结构化问题,通过对预警理论和技术进行研究,介绍了预警的数学理论基础,分析了常见的预警机制和方法,从政治、经济、军事、教育、医疗卫生和社会生活等方面对预警的应用研究做了介绍,并对预警理论和应用的发展做了展望。
Early warning for a crisis is a kind of semi-structured or unstructured problems with a large number of uncertainties.Through researching on early warning theories and techniques,this paper describes the theoretical basis for early warning,analysis common early warning mechanisms and methods,presents early warning applications in the fields of the politics,economy,military,education,health and social life etc.,and looks into the future of early warning theories and it applications.
Early warning for a crisis is a kind of semi-structured or unstructured problems with a large number of uncertainties.Through researching on early warning theories and techniques,this paper describes the theoretical basis for early warning,analysis common early warning mechanisms and methods,presents early warning applications in the fields of the politics,economy,military,education,health and social life etc.,and looks into the future of early warning theories and it applications.
引文
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[15]P.A.Schrodt.Early Warning of Conflict in Southern Leba-non using Hidden Markov Models.The Understanding andManagement of Global Violence,1997,131-162.
[16]潘洁珠,吴共庆,胡学钢等.基于领域知识的预警规则发现研究[J].计算机技术与发展,2008,66-68,73.
[17]刘永孝,邓舒.传染病自动预警信息分析[J].安徽预防医学杂志,2007,13(6):425-426,433.
[18]常志朋.基于模糊决策树的出口纺织品反倾销预警系统[J].计算机工程与应用,2009,45(25):234-237.
[19]柳炳祥.基于数据挖掘的危机管理及其预警方法研究[D].东南大学博士学位论文.2003.
[2]戴行信.预警的数学理论研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2002,26(2):195-198.
[3]戴行信.生产中事故发生的数学模型[J].武汉造船,1997,(2):38-41.
[4]吴望名,陈永义,黄金丽等.应用模糊集方法[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,1985.237-269.
[5]吴立扬,戴行信,陈友铭.管理统计学[M].武汉:湖北人民出版社,1994.299-323.
[6]王超,樊宏烨.我国危机预警方法研究现状评析[J].交通企业管理,2005,12:6-7.
[7]张霞,陈晓亮,刘晓敏.四川工业经济运行预警指标体系的构建[J].经济体制改革,2006,6:147-150.
[8]俞欢军,王建成,胡上序.基于概率模式识别方法的宏观经济预警系统的进一步研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,1999,9:41-48.
[9]何跃,陈川,黄智.基于ARCH模型的工业经济预警系统[J].计算机工程与应用,2006,36:179-182.
[10]徐鹿,边玥.财务预警实证研究比较分析[J].商业研究,2006,24:127-129.
[11]陈顒,陈运泰,张国民等.“十一.五”期间中国重大地震灾害预测预警和防治对策[J].灾害学,2005,20(1):1-14.
[12]肖国安,王文涛.粮食安全预警研究综述及一种新的预警模型[J].湘潭大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2006,30(1):129-133.
[13]P.A.Schrodt,D.J.Gerner.Cluster-based early warningindicators for political change in the contemporary levant.A-merican Political Science Review,2000,94(4):803-817.
[14]E.Basha,D.Rus.Design of early warning flood detectionsystems for developing countries.In:Proceedings of the Con-ference on Information and Communication Technologies andDevelopment,Bangalore,India,December,2007.
[15]P.A.Schrodt.Early Warning of Conflict in Southern Leba-non using Hidden Markov Models.The Understanding andManagement of Global Violence,1997,131-162.
[16]潘洁珠,吴共庆,胡学钢等.基于领域知识的预警规则发现研究[J].计算机技术与发展,2008,66-68,73.
[17]刘永孝,邓舒.传染病自动预警信息分析[J].安徽预防医学杂志,2007,13(6):425-426,433.
[18]常志朋.基于模糊决策树的出口纺织品反倾销预警系统[J].计算机工程与应用,2009,45(25):234-237.
[19]柳炳祥.基于数据挖掘的危机管理及其预警方法研究[D].东南大学博士学位论文.2003.
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