基于盲数理论的冲击地压危险性评价模型
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摘要
由于地质情况的复杂和试验资料的不足,冲击地压危险性综合评价中的影响因素普遍存在着随机性、模糊性、灰性及未确知性等不确定性。针对这一特点,将盲信息的数学理论引入到冲击地压危险性评价的综合指数法中,利用盲数来表达危险指数的不确定性,提出了综合指数的盲数形式。运用盲数运算法则计算出综合指数在不同的取值区间内的可信度,从而为判定冲击地压危险状态提供了更全面的依据,克服了传统方法过于绝对化的问题。实例分析表明,盲数在冲击地压危险性评价中能更好地考虑影响因素的不确定性,得到的结果更可靠。
Due to the complexity of the geological conditions and deficiency of experimental data,uncertainty such as randomicity,vagueness,gray,unsureness widely exists in the influential factors of comprehensive evaluation of rock burst risks. Aimed at this point,it was suggested to apply the mathematic theory of blind information to the comprehensive index method for the assessment of rock burst risks,used blind data to express the uncertainty of the risk index, and thus put forward blind data form of the comprehensive index. The corresponding confidence levels of comprehensive index in different numerical value intervals were computed by the use of blind data algorithms,which consequently provides more overall evidence to judge the rockburst risk levels and overcomes the problem of absolutization in traditional methods. The case analysis indicates that blind data can consider influential factors better when evaluating rockburst risks and the coming result is more reliable.
Due to the complexity of the geological conditions and deficiency of experimental data,uncertainty such as randomicity,vagueness,gray,unsureness widely exists in the influential factors of comprehensive evaluation of rock burst risks. Aimed at this point,it was suggested to apply the mathematic theory of blind information to the comprehensive index method for the assessment of rock burst risks,used blind data to express the uncertainty of the risk index, and thus put forward blind data form of the comprehensive index. The corresponding confidence levels of comprehensive index in different numerical value intervals were computed by the use of blind data algorithms,which consequently provides more overall evidence to judge the rockburst risk levels and overcomes the problem of absolutization in traditional methods. The case analysis indicates that blind data can consider influential factors better when evaluating rockburst risks and the coming result is more reliable.
引文
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[13]张开智,夏均民.冲击危险性综合评价的变权识别模型[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(20):3480-3483.Zhang Kaizhi,Xia Junmin.Weight-variable identification model of comprehensive evaluation on burst liability of coal[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(20):34803483.
[14]朱卓慧,赵伏军,叶洲元.基于距离判别分析法的冲击地压预测研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(3):41-46.Zhu Zhuohui,Zhao Fujun,Ye Zhouyuan.Prediction of rock burst in mining based on distance discriminant analysis method[J].China Safety Science Journal,2008,18(3):4146.
[15]雷毅.冲击危险性评价模型的建立及应用研究[D].北京:煤炭科学研究总院,2005.
[16]刘开第,吴和琴,庞彦军,等.盲数的概念、运算与性质[J].运筹与管理,1998,7(3):14-17.Liu Kaidi,Wu Heqin,Pang Yanjun,et al.The concept,operations and properties of blind number[J].Operations Research and Man-agement Science,1998,7(3):1417.
[17]赵志峰,徐卫亚.基于盲数理论的边坡安全稳定分析研究[J].岩土力学,2007,28(11):2401-2404.Zhao Zhifeng,Xu Weiya.Slope stability analysis based on the blind data theory[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2007,28(11):2401-2404.
[2]姜耀东,赵毅鑫,刘文岗,等.煤岩冲击失稳的机理和实验研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.Jiang Yaodong,Zhao Yixin,Liu Wengang,et al.Investigation on the mechanism of coal bumps and relating experiments[M].Beijing:Science Press,2009.
[3]窦林名,何学秋.煤矿冲击矿压的分级预测研究[J].中国矿业大学学报,2007,36(6):717-722.Dou Linming,He Xueqiu.Technique of classification forecasting rock burst in coal mines[J].Journal of China University of Mining&Technology,2007,36(6):717722.
[4]史红,姜福兴.基于微地震监测的覆岩多层空间结构倾向支承压力研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(S1):3274-3280.Shi Hong,Jiang Fuxing.Study on abutment pressure rule of overlying strata spatial structures based on microseismic monitoring[J].Chi-nese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(S1):32743280.
[5]Lu Caiping,Dou Linming,Cao Anye,et al.Research on microseismic activity rules in Sanhejian Coal Mine[J].Journal of Coal Science and Engineering(China),2008,14(3):373377.
[6]何学秋,聂百胜,王恩元,等.矿井煤岩动力灾害电磁辐射预警技术[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(1):56-59.He Xueqiu,Nie Baisheng,Wang Enyuan,et al.Electromagnetic emission forecasting technology of coal or rock dynamic disasters in mine[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2007,32(1):5659.
[7]蒋金泉,李洪.基于混沌时序预测方法的冲击地压预测研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2006,25(5):889-895.Jiang Jinquan,Li Hong.Study on rock burst forecast with forecast method based on chaotic time series[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2006,25(5):889895.
[8]李洪,戴仁竹,蒋金泉.基于最大Lyapunov指数的冲击地压预测模型[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2006,23(2):215-219.Li Hong,Dai Renzhu,Jiang Jinquan.Predicting model of rock burst based on Lyapunov index[J].Journal of Mining&Safety Engineer-ing,2006,23(2):215219.
[9]尹光志,谭钦文,魏作安.基于混沌优化神经网络的冲击地压预测模型[J].煤炭学报,2008,33(8):871-875.Yin Guangzhi,Tan Qinwen,Wei Zuoan.Combined optimization mod-el of rock-burst prediction based on chaos optimization and BP neu-ral networks[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2008,33(8):871-875.
[10]高玮,冯夏庭.基于进化神经网络的冲击地压非线性动力系统建模[J].岩土力学,2003,24(S):48-53.Gao Wei,Feng Xiating.Non-linear dynamic modelling of rock burst based on evolutionary neural network[J].Rock and Soil Mechan-ics,2003,24(S):4853.
[11]陈刚,潘一山.遗传模拟退火的BP算法在冲击地压中的应用[J].岩土力学,2003,24(6):882-886.Chen Gang,Pan Yishan.Application of multilayer perceptions based on genetic simulated annealing algorithm to rock burst[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2003,24(6):882886.
[12]王淑坤,张万斌,吴耀坤.模糊综合评判煤的冲击倾向性的研究[J].矿山压力与顶板管理,1992(1):75-80.Wang Shukun,Zhang Wanbin,Wu Yaokun.The study of outburst-proneness of coal based on fuzzy comprehensive judgement[J].Ground Pressure and Strata Control,1992(1):7580.
[13]张开智,夏均民.冲击危险性综合评价的变权识别模型[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(20):3480-3483.Zhang Kaizhi,Xia Junmin.Weight-variable identification model of comprehensive evaluation on burst liability of coal[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(20):34803483.
[14]朱卓慧,赵伏军,叶洲元.基于距离判别分析法的冲击地压预测研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(3):41-46.Zhu Zhuohui,Zhao Fujun,Ye Zhouyuan.Prediction of rock burst in mining based on distance discriminant analysis method[J].China Safety Science Journal,2008,18(3):4146.
[15]雷毅.冲击危险性评价模型的建立及应用研究[D].北京:煤炭科学研究总院,2005.
[16]刘开第,吴和琴,庞彦军,等.盲数的概念、运算与性质[J].运筹与管理,1998,7(3):14-17.Liu Kaidi,Wu Heqin,Pang Yanjun,et al.The concept,operations and properties of blind number[J].Operations Research and Man-agement Science,1998,7(3):1417.
[17]赵志峰,徐卫亚.基于盲数理论的边坡安全稳定分析研究[J].岩土力学,2007,28(11):2401-2404.Zhao Zhifeng,Xu Weiya.Slope stability analysis based on the blind data theory[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2007,28(11):2401-2404.
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