福建水口水库诱发地震及其发展趋势探讨
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摘要
应用概率法、综合影响参数预测法、两级模糊评判法、古登堡-里克特公式外推预测法等对水口水库诱发地震序列以及活动特征进行了研究,认为:1996年4月21日发生的ML4.1地震为水口水库诱发地震主震,今后库区发生大于3级以上诱发地震的可能性较小。
The sequence and activity characteristics of Shuikou reservoir induced earthquake are analyzed with several methods,such as probabilistic evaluation,comprehensive effect parameter E evaluation,two-step comprehensive fuzzy evaluation,the maximum magnitude of historical earthquakes evaluation,etc..The results show that the Shuikou ML4.1 earthquake on April 21,1996 is a main-earthquake,and from now on,the possibility occuring ML>3 induced earthquake in Shuikou reservoir area is low.
The sequence and activity characteristics of Shuikou reservoir induced earthquake are analyzed with several methods,such as probabilistic evaluation,comprehensive effect parameter E evaluation,two-step comprehensive fuzzy evaluation,the maximum magnitude of historical earthquakes evaluation,etc..The results show that the Shuikou ML4.1 earthquake on April 21,1996 is a main-earthquake,and from now on,the possibility occuring ML>3 induced earthquake in Shuikou reservoir area is low.
引文
[1]林思诚.彭美凤,等.水口水库诱发地震的发展趋势及防震减灾对策研究[R].福建省地震局,1997.
1彭美凤,等.水口水库地震及其活动特征[J].华南地震,1997,17(2):84～88.1Peng Meifeng,et al.Reservoir earthquake of Shuikou and its activity characteristics[J].South China Journal of Seismolo-gy,1997,17(2):84-88.(in Chinese)
2许振栋,陈传昌.水口水库诱发地震研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(2):58～62.2Xu Zhendong and Chen Chuanchang.Study of induced earth-quake in Shuikou reservoir of Fujian province[J].Journal ofGeodesy and Geodynamics,2004,24(2):58-62.(in Chi-nese)
3郑小菁,陈莹.水口水库诱发地震与库水位变化相关性研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2005,25(专):41～44.3Zheng Xiaojing and Chen Ying.Corelation between water lev-el and seismicity in Shuikou reservoir area[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2005,25(Spec.):41-44.(in Chinese)
4许振栋.福建水口水库地震成因探讨[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2005,25(专):67～70.4Xu Zhendong.Discussion on seismogenesis in Shuikou reser-voir area of Fujian province[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geo-dynamics,2005,25(Spec.):67-70.(in Chinese)
5宋俊高,王炜.地震预报系列教材[A].见:测震学分析预报方法[C].北京:地震出版社,1997.5Song jungao and Wang Wei.Earthquake prediction(serial course)[A].The seismological analysis method[C].Bei-jing:Seismological Press,1997.(in Chinese)
6许振栋.福建水口水库诱发地震最大震级预测[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2004,25(3):58～61.6Xu Zhendong.The prediction of the maximum magnitude of induced earthquake in the Shuikou reservoir of Fujian prov-ince[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2004,25(3):58-61.(in Chinese)
7常宝琦.岩土力学[A].地震工程.水库地震(论文集)[C].广州:华南理工大学出版社,1995.7Chang Baoqi.Rock and soil mechanics[A].Earthquake en-gineering and reservoir earthquake[C].Guangzhou:Press of South China University of Science and Technology,1995.(in Chinese)
8丁原章,等.水库诱发震[M].北京:地震出版社,1989.8Ding Yuanzhang,et al.The reservoir induced earthquake[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1989,154-155.(in Chinese)
9杨清源,陈献程.水库诱发震的预测[J].地震地质,1998,20(3):270～271.9Yang Qingyuan and Chen Xiancheng.The prediction of reser-voir induced seismicity[J].Seismology and Geology,1998,20(3):269-273.(in Chinese)
10杨清源,胡毓良,陈献程.国内外水库诱发震目录[J].地震地质,1996,18(4):453～459.10Yang Qingyuan,Hu Yuliang and Chen Xiancheng.Cata-logne of reservoir induced earthquakes home and abroad[J].Seismology and Geology,1996,18(4):453-459.(in Chinese)
1彭美凤,等.水口水库地震及其活动特征[J].华南地震,1997,17(2):84～88.1Peng Meifeng,et al.Reservoir earthquake of Shuikou and its activity characteristics[J].South China Journal of Seismolo-gy,1997,17(2):84-88.(in Chinese)
2许振栋,陈传昌.水口水库诱发地震研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(2):58～62.2Xu Zhendong and Chen Chuanchang.Study of induced earth-quake in Shuikou reservoir of Fujian province[J].Journal ofGeodesy and Geodynamics,2004,24(2):58-62.(in Chi-nese)
3郑小菁,陈莹.水口水库诱发地震与库水位变化相关性研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2005,25(专):41～44.3Zheng Xiaojing and Chen Ying.Corelation between water lev-el and seismicity in Shuikou reservoir area[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2005,25(Spec.):41-44.(in Chinese)
4许振栋.福建水口水库地震成因探讨[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2005,25(专):67～70.4Xu Zhendong.Discussion on seismogenesis in Shuikou reser-voir area of Fujian province[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geo-dynamics,2005,25(Spec.):67-70.(in Chinese)
5宋俊高,王炜.地震预报系列教材[A].见:测震学分析预报方法[C].北京:地震出版社,1997.5Song jungao and Wang Wei.Earthquake prediction(serial course)[A].The seismological analysis method[C].Bei-jing:Seismological Press,1997.(in Chinese)
6许振栋.福建水口水库诱发地震最大震级预测[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2004,25(3):58～61.6Xu Zhendong.The prediction of the maximum magnitude of induced earthquake in the Shuikou reservoir of Fujian prov-ince[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2004,25(3):58-61.(in Chinese)
7常宝琦.岩土力学[A].地震工程.水库地震(论文集)[C].广州:华南理工大学出版社,1995.7Chang Baoqi.Rock and soil mechanics[A].Earthquake en-gineering and reservoir earthquake[C].Guangzhou:Press of South China University of Science and Technology,1995.(in Chinese)
8丁原章,等.水库诱发震[M].北京:地震出版社,1989.8Ding Yuanzhang,et al.The reservoir induced earthquake[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1989,154-155.(in Chinese)
9杨清源,陈献程.水库诱发震的预测[J].地震地质,1998,20(3):270～271.9Yang Qingyuan and Chen Xiancheng.The prediction of reser-voir induced seismicity[J].Seismology and Geology,1998,20(3):269-273.(in Chinese)
10杨清源,胡毓良,陈献程.国内外水库诱发震目录[J].地震地质,1996,18(4):453～459.10Yang Qingyuan,Hu Yuliang and Chen Xiancheng.Cata-logne of reservoir induced earthquakes home and abroad[J].Seismology and Geology,1996,18(4):453-459.(in Chinese)
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