铀尾矿氡析出率的Hurst指数与分形特征
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摘要
铀尾矿氡的析出是一个重要的环境问题.通过室内实验测定了铀尾矿氡析出率随时间的变化,结果表明尾矿中氡析出率随时间呈现明显的非周期振荡变化.应用R/S方法对所获得的氡析出率时间序列数据进行了分形分析,其整个时间序列数据的Hurst指数为0.83,分维值为1.17.移动Hurst指数在大多数情况下位于0.5-0.8之间,实验后期的Hurst指数部分位于0.5以下,表明铀尾矿氡析出率长期趋势不满足随机游走理论,氡析出率具有长期记忆性,但是短期记忆性不显著.尾矿中氡的析出是一个确定性的混沌动力学过程.
The uranium tailings radon exhalation is an important environmental problem.The change of the radon exhalation rate of uranium tailings with the time through laboratory experiments is measured,and the results show that the radon exhalation rate of the tailings change obviously with time in non-periodic oscillations.Applying fractal analysis to the radon exhalation rate time-series data by R/S method,the Hurst exponent of the entire time series data is 0.83,the fractal dimension is 1.17.Mobile Hurst exponent is between 0.5 and 0.8 in most cases.The Hurst exponent of the experiments in the later part are below 0.5.The exhalation rate of uranium tailings radon does not meet the long-term trend of random walk theory,the radon exhalation rate has long-term memory,but the short-term memory is not distinct.The radon exhalation from uranium tailings is a deterministic chaotic dynamics.
The uranium tailings radon exhalation is an important environmental problem.The change of the radon exhalation rate of uranium tailings with the time through laboratory experiments is measured,and the results show that the radon exhalation rate of the tailings change obviously with time in non-periodic oscillations.Applying fractal analysis to the radon exhalation rate time-series data by R/S method,the Hurst exponent of the entire time series data is 0.83,the fractal dimension is 1.17.Mobile Hurst exponent is between 0.5 and 0.8 in most cases.The Hurst exponent of the experiments in the later part are below 0.5.The exhalation rate of uranium tailings radon does not meet the long-term trend of random walk theory,the radon exhalation rate has long-term memory,but the short-term memory is not distinct.The radon exhalation from uranium tailings is a deterministic chaotic dynamics.
引文
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[14]樊晓一,乔建平.三峡水库区滑坡时间记录的R/S分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,17(2):99-101.
[15]郭德科.地震频次的Hurst指数在地震预报中的应用[J].华北地震科学,2002,20(3):44-501.
[16]Hurst HE,Black R P,Simaika Y M.Long-term stor-age in reservoir:an experimental study[M].London:Constable Co.,1965.
[2]Krewski D,Lubin J,Zielinski J,et al.Residential radonand risk of lung cancer:a combined analysis of 7 NorthAmerican case control studies[J].Epidemiology,2005,16(2):137-145.
[3]United Nation.The effect of atomic radiation,sources,effects and risks of ionizing radiation:report of UnitedNation Scientific Committee[R].New York:UNSCEAR,2000.
[4]IAEA-International Atomic Energy Agency.Measure-ment and calculation of radon releases from uranium milltailings[M].Viena:IAEA Technical Reports Series No.333,Austria,1992.
[5]Mudd G M.Radon releases from Australian uraniummining and milling projects:assessing the UNSCEARapproach[J].J.Environ.Radioactivity,2008,99:288-315.
[6]Sahoo B K,Mayya Y S,Sapra B K,et al.Radon exhala-tion studies in an Indian uranium tailings pile[J].Radi-ation Measurements,2010,45:237-241.
[7]Bejar J,Facchini U,Giroletti E,et al.Low dimensionalchaos is present in radon time variations[J].J EnvironRadioactivity,1995,28(1):73-89.
[8]Cuculeanu V,Lupu A.Deterministic chaos in atmospher-ic radon dynamics[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2001,106:17961-17968.
[9]Mandelbrot B B.The fractal geometry of nature[M].New York:W HFreeman and Company,1977.
[10]叶中行,杨利平.上证指数的混沌特性分析[J].上海交通大学学报,1998,32(3):129-132.
[11]李迪开,陈刚,刘连寿.高能碰撞末态粒子相空间分形特性与HURST指数的研究[J].中国科学:物理学力学天文学,2010,40(4):440-447.
[12]庄新田,庄新路,田莹.Hurst指数及股市的分形结构[J].东北大学学报(自然科学版),2003,24(9):862-864.
[13]贺可强,孙林娜,王思敬.滑坡位移分形参数Hurst指数及其在堆积层滑坡预报中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(6):1107-1115.
[14]樊晓一,乔建平.三峡水库区滑坡时间记录的R/S分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,17(2):99-101.
[15]郭德科.地震频次的Hurst指数在地震预报中的应用[J].华北地震科学,2002,20(3):44-501.
[16]Hurst HE,Black R P,Simaika Y M.Long-term stor-age in reservoir:an experimental study[M].London:Constable Co.,1965.
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