基于加权响应面法的重力坝深层抗滑稳定体系可靠度分析
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摘要
重力坝的深层坝基存在多个断层时,可能存在多个潜在的滑移路径。采用非线性有限元和传统的整体安全系数法计算各断层抗滑稳定的安全系数,并采用强度折减法可找到其最可能的失效路径。研究表明,强度折减系数大于各断层抗滑稳定的安全系数。基于加权响应面法,计算了各断层抗滑稳定的可靠指标,并与安全系数进行了比较,表明其安全系数与可靠指标并非存在完全的对等关系。将滑移路径中的各断层视为并联体系,各滑移路径组成串联体系,采用逐步等效线性化计算各滑移路径失效的可靠指标及深层抗滑稳定的体系可靠指标,计算结果与强度折减法基本一致,因此,在重力坝深层抗滑稳定的安全性评价中引入可靠度理论可弥补单一安全系数法存在的不足。
Various potential sliding paths should be considered in the stability analysis of gravity dam against deep sliding when several faults exist in foundation.The safety factor of every fault calculated by utilizing nonlinear finite element method and the entire safety factor method,and the most possible sliding path was obtained by strength reduction method.The results indicate that the strength reduction factor is larger than the safety factors of all the faults.Based on the weighted regression response surface method,the reliability indexes of the faults were computed and compared with the safety factors.The result shows that there is no entire equity relationship between the reliability index and safety factor.Each failure mode of sliding path is a parallel system of several faults,and the final failure mode is the serial system composed of all sliding paths.The reliability of every sliding path and the final system were analyzed by means of the gradual equivalent linear method,and the results are consistent with the strength reduction factor.It is concluded that the reliability analysis can be applied to the safety evaluation of deep sliding stability of gravity dams to improve the shortcomings of the safety factor method.
Various potential sliding paths should be considered in the stability analysis of gravity dam against deep sliding when several faults exist in foundation.The safety factor of every fault calculated by utilizing nonlinear finite element method and the entire safety factor method,and the most possible sliding path was obtained by strength reduction method.The results indicate that the strength reduction factor is larger than the safety factors of all the faults.Based on the weighted regression response surface method,the reliability indexes of the faults were computed and compared with the safety factors.The result shows that there is no entire equity relationship between the reliability index and safety factor.Each failure mode of sliding path is a parallel system of several faults,and the final failure mode is the serial system composed of all sliding paths.The reliability of every sliding path and the final system were analyzed by means of the gradual equivalent linear method,and the results are consistent with the strength reduction factor.It is concluded that the reliability analysis can be applied to the safety evaluation of deep sliding stability of gravity dams to improve the shortcomings of the safety factor method.
引文
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[2]周伟,常晓林,徐建强.基于分项系数的重力坝深层抗滑稳定分析[J].岩土力学,2007,28(2):315-320.
[3]ZHOU Wei,CHANG Xiaolin,ZHOU Chuangbing,et al.Failure analysis of high-concrete gravity dam based ons trength reserve factor method[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2007,35(4):627-636.
[4]刘艳章,葛修润,李春光,等.基于矢量安全系数的边坡与坝基稳定分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(10):2130-2140.
[5]Pekau O A,Asce M,Zhu Xueye.Three-Degree-of-Freedom Rigid Model for seismic analysis of cracked concreteg ravity dam[sJ].Journal of Engineering Mechanics,2006,132(9):979-989.
[6]陈祖煜,陈立宏.对重力坝设计规范中双斜面抗滑稳定分析公式的讨论意见[J].水力发电学报,2002(2):101-108.
[7]王东,陈建康.重力坝可靠度参数敏感性探讨[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2001,33(4):1-5.
[8]潘军校,周泽,陈养源.重力坝深层抗滑稳定的可靠度分析[J].水力发电学报,2007,26(5):64-67.
[9]范书立,陈健云,范武强,等.地震作用下碾压混凝土重力坝的可靠度分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(3):565-571.
[10]Bucher C G,Bourgund U.A fast and efficient response surface approach for structural reliability problems[J].S tructural Safety,1990,7(1):57-66.
[11]Rajashekhar M R,Ellingwood B R.A new look at the response surface approach for reliability[J].StructuralS afety,1993,12(3):205-220.
[12]张哲,李生勇,石磊,等.结构可靠度分析中的改进的响应面法及其应用[J].工程力学,2007,24(8):111-115,187.
[13]Irfan Kaymaz,Chris A McMahon.A responsive surface method based on weighted regression for structural reli a bility analysi[sJ].Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,2005,20:11-17.
[14]Xuan Son Nguyen,Alian Sellier,Frederic Duprat,et al.Adaptive response surface method based on a doublew eighted regression technique[J].Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,2009,24(2):135-143.
[15]赵洁.机械可靠性分析的响应面法研究[D].西安:西北工业大学,2006.
[16]高而坤,叶军,吴世伟.同时算出结构可靠指标和验算点值的快速收敛蒙特卡罗法[J].河海大学学报,1992,20(2):97-103.
[17]国家电力公司成都勘测设计研究院.四川省雅砻江桐子林水电站可行性研究报告(重编)水工部分[R].成都:国家电力公司成都勘测设计研究院,2005.
[18]苗琴生.混凝土重力坝的坝基、坝体层面及岩体与混凝土接触面抗剪断参数值的统计分析和确定[J].水利水电勘测设计标准化,2000(2-3):66—74.
[19]王静.水电站厂房深层抗滑稳定的可靠度研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2008.
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