新版地震区划图地震活动性模型与参数确定
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摘要
地震活动性模型和地震动预测模型是概率地震危险性分析的两个核心。在新版地震区划图中,依据板内地震活动空间不均匀性分布的特点,在概率地震危险性分析方法(CPSHA)中采用了由地震统计区、背景潜在震源区和构造潜在震源区构成的三级层次性潜在震源区模型,并构建了相应的地震活动性模型。本文在论述CPSHA方法及其地震活动性模型基本概念的基础上,重点介绍了新版地震区划图地震活动性模型的三级潜在震源区模型的构成、地震活动性假定和基本特点,同时,也对新版地震区划图地震活动性模型的重要参数确定思路、方法与结果进行了介绍。本文将为更好地认识与理解我国新版地震动参数区划图提供有益的参考。
The model of earthquake activity and the model of earthquake ground motion are two primary elements of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The CPSHA, a modified PSHA method, is used for the new seismic hazard map of China, which has advantages of characterizing the non-uniform spatial distribution of intraplate earthquakes in China. The earthquake activity model of CPSHA is established based on a tri-classes seismic source model, which consists of the seismic province, the of background seismicity zone, and the tectonic features zone. In this paper, the primary principles of the earthquake activity model of CPSHA are introduced firstly, and then the tri-classes seismic source and the characteristics of its earthquake recurrence model are presented in detail. Also in this paper, the general framework of determining physical seismicity parameters of the earthquake activity model used by the new seismic hazard map is described briefly and the final products are demonstrated here. This paper will be helpful for better understanding the results of the new seismic hazard map of China.
The model of earthquake activity and the model of earthquake ground motion are two primary elements of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The CPSHA, a modified PSHA method, is used for the new seismic hazard map of China, which has advantages of characterizing the non-uniform spatial distribution of intraplate earthquakes in China. The earthquake activity model of CPSHA is established based on a tri-classes seismic source model, which consists of the seismic province, the of background seismicity zone, and the tectonic features zone. In this paper, the primary principles of the earthquake activity model of CPSHA are introduced firstly, and then the tri-classes seismic source and the characteristics of its earthquake recurrence model are presented in detail. Also in this paper, the general framework of determining physical seismicity parameters of the earthquake activity model used by the new seismic hazard map is described briefly and the final products are demonstrated here. This paper will be helpful for better understanding the results of the new seismic hazard map of China.
引文
国家地震局,1996.中国地震烈度区划图(1990)概论.北京:地震出版社.
胡聿贤主编,2001.《中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306-2001)》宣贯教材.北京:中国标准出版社.
卢寿德主编,2006.《工程场地地震安全性评价(GB17741-2005)》宣贯教材.北京:中国标准出版社.
潘华,2000.概率地震危险性分析中参数不确定性研究.中国地震局地球物理研究所博士论文.
潘华,高孟潭,李金臣,2009.新版美国地震区划图源及其参数模型分析与评述.震灾防御技术,4(2):131—140.
Cornell C.A.,1968.Engineeing seismic risk analysis.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.58:1583—1606.
Petersen M.D.,Frankel A.D.,Harmsen S.C.,Mueller C.S.,Haller K.M.,Wheeler R.L.,Wesson R.L.,Zeng Yuehua,Boyd O.S.,Perkins D.M.,Luco Nicolas,Field E.H.,Wills C.J.,and Rukstales K.S.,2008.Documentation for the2008Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report,2008—1128.
胡聿贤主编,2001.《中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306-2001)》宣贯教材.北京:中国标准出版社.
卢寿德主编,2006.《工程场地地震安全性评价(GB17741-2005)》宣贯教材.北京:中国标准出版社.
潘华,2000.概率地震危险性分析中参数不确定性研究.中国地震局地球物理研究所博士论文.
潘华,高孟潭,李金臣,2009.新版美国地震区划图源及其参数模型分析与评述.震灾防御技术,4(2):131—140.
Cornell C.A.,1968.Engineeing seismic risk analysis.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.58:1583—1606.
Petersen M.D.,Frankel A.D.,Harmsen S.C.,Mueller C.S.,Haller K.M.,Wheeler R.L.,Wesson R.L.,Zeng Yuehua,Boyd O.S.,Perkins D.M.,Luco Nicolas,Field E.H.,Wills C.J.,and Rukstales K.S.,2008.Documentation for the2008Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report,2008—1128.
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