核电厂地震安全性评价衰减关系影响分析
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摘要
地震危险性分析中的不确定性处理和表征,一直是核电厂厂址地震安全性评价中倍受关注的重要问题,尤其是日本福岛核事故后,无论是确定核电厂厂址的设计基准地震动,还是进行核电厂地震风险评价,都更加重视地震危险性分析中的不确定性。本文通过理论分析重点说明了衰减关系的不确定性,包括标准差和截断水平对核电厂地震安全性评价的影响,并在此基础上,通过算例和讨论说明了概率性方法截断水平的选取问题,探讨了现行确定性方法和概率性方法在截断水平选取上的差异。分析计算结果表明,在地震活动较弱的区域,概率性方法截断水平为3,确定性方法截断水平为0的现行做法是恰当的。但是,对于发震构造大震复发间隔较小的区域,为了使二者在超越概率方面协调,恰当提高确定性方法的截断水平更为合理。
How to characteristic and deal with uncertainty is an important and interested problem in seismic hazard assessment(SHA),especially after Fukushima nuclear accident.Nuclear utility and regulatory agency took more attention to uncertainty either in determining seismic design ground motion or risk assessment for nuclear power plant(NPP).In this paper,we illuminated the standard deviation and epsilon of attenuation relationship(AR)can significantly influence the SHA result by theoretical analysis,showed difference in nature between deterministic(DSHA)and probabilistic(PSHA)method on truncate level of AR.Analysis and example presented in the paper proved that truncate level for PSHA equals to 3 and 0 for DSHA in low seismicity area is adequate.It is suitable to raise truncate level where recurrent interval of large earthquake is relatively short.
How to characteristic and deal with uncertainty is an important and interested problem in seismic hazard assessment(SHA),especially after Fukushima nuclear accident.Nuclear utility and regulatory agency took more attention to uncertainty either in determining seismic design ground motion or risk assessment for nuclear power plant(NPP).In this paper,we illuminated the standard deviation and epsilon of attenuation relationship(AR)can significantly influence the SHA result by theoretical analysis,showed difference in nature between deterministic(DSHA)and probabilistic(PSHA)method on truncate level of AR.Analysis and example presented in the paper proved that truncate level for PSHA equals to 3 and 0 for DSHA in low seismicity area is adequate.It is suitable to raise truncate level where recurrent interval of large earthquake is relatively short.
引文
胡聿贤,1993.核设施地震危险性估计中的几个问题.地震地质,15(4):308—316.
胡聿贤主编,1999.地震安全性评价技术教程.北京:地震出版社.
李金臣,潘华,2013.面状发震构造在地震构造法中的应用:以大姚—姚安发震构造鉴定为例.震灾防御技术,8(2):135—144.
潘华,高孟潭等,2009.新版美国地震区划图源及其参数模型的分析与评述.震灾防御技术,4(2):131—140.
潘华,黄玮琼,2003.地震统计区划分不确定性对场点地震危险性计算的影响.地震学报,25(2):199—204.
潘华,吴健,2006.新版IAEA安全导则《核电厂地震危险性评价》的分析与评述.震灾防御技术,1(2):121 —128.
时振梁,张裕明,肖亮,1995.核工程地震安全性评价方法的研究.北京:地震出版社.
俞言祥,李山有,肖亮,2013.为新区划图编制所建立的地震动衰减关系.震灾防御技术,8(1):24—33.
俞言祥,汪素云,2006.中国东部和西部地区水平向基岩加速度反应谱衰减关系.震灾防御技术,1(3):206 —217.
汪素云,俞言祥,高阿甲等,2000.中国分区地震动衰减关系的确定.中国地震,16(2):99—106.
Bender B.and Perkins D.M.,1987.SEISRISK III:a computer program for seismic hazard estimation.USGS Bulletin,1772.
Boore D.M.and Atkinson G.M.,2008.Ground-motion prediction equations for the average horizontal component of PGA,PGV,and 5%-damped PSA at spectral periods between 0.01s and 10.0s.Earthquake Spectra,24(1):99 —138.
Joyner W.B.and Boore D.M.,1981.Peak horizontal acceleration and velocity from strong-motion records including records from the 1979 Imperial Valley,California,earthquake.Bul1.Seism.Soc.Amer.,71(6):2011—2038.
Mc Guire R.K.,1976.EQRISK:Evaluation of earthquake risk to site.USGS Open File Report,66—67.
Mc Guire R.K.,1978.Seismic ground motion parameter relations.Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Division,104(4):481—490.
胡聿贤主编,1999.地震安全性评价技术教程.北京:地震出版社.
李金臣,潘华,2013.面状发震构造在地震构造法中的应用:以大姚—姚安发震构造鉴定为例.震灾防御技术,8(2):135—144.
潘华,高孟潭等,2009.新版美国地震区划图源及其参数模型的分析与评述.震灾防御技术,4(2):131—140.
潘华,黄玮琼,2003.地震统计区划分不确定性对场点地震危险性计算的影响.地震学报,25(2):199—204.
潘华,吴健,2006.新版IAEA安全导则《核电厂地震危险性评价》的分析与评述.震灾防御技术,1(2):121 —128.
时振梁,张裕明,肖亮,1995.核工程地震安全性评价方法的研究.北京:地震出版社.
俞言祥,李山有,肖亮,2013.为新区划图编制所建立的地震动衰减关系.震灾防御技术,8(1):24—33.
俞言祥,汪素云,2006.中国东部和西部地区水平向基岩加速度反应谱衰减关系.震灾防御技术,1(3):206 —217.
汪素云,俞言祥,高阿甲等,2000.中国分区地震动衰减关系的确定.中国地震,16(2):99—106.
Bender B.and Perkins D.M.,1987.SEISRISK III:a computer program for seismic hazard estimation.USGS Bulletin,1772.
Boore D.M.and Atkinson G.M.,2008.Ground-motion prediction equations for the average horizontal component of PGA,PGV,and 5%-damped PSA at spectral periods between 0.01s and 10.0s.Earthquake Spectra,24(1):99 —138.
Joyner W.B.and Boore D.M.,1981.Peak horizontal acceleration and velocity from strong-motion records including records from the 1979 Imperial Valley,California,earthquake.Bul1.Seism.Soc.Amer.,71(6):2011—2038.
Mc Guire R.K.,1976.EQRISK:Evaluation of earthquake risk to site.USGS Open File Report,66—67.
Mc Guire R.K.,1978.Seismic ground motion parameter relations.Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Division,104(4):481—490.
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